沙尘暴灾害致灾因子三维联合分布与重现期探索

探讨多致灾因子对Copula联合分布模型在三维多致灾因子综合分析中的扩展.针对沙尘暴形成的3个基本条件:大风、丰富的沙尘源和不稳定的大气层结,以内蒙古镶黄旗1990-2008年的强沙尘暴灾害事件为案例,建立了经向环流指数、地面平均最大风速和地表土壤湿度3个基本特征变量的联合分布,计算了基于联合分布的联合重现期.研究表明,镶黄旗强沙尘暴事件的三维致灾因子符合Frank Copula函数构建条件,该函数能够很好地描述强沙尘暴灾害3个基本特征变量的联合分布,具备扩展到三维的能力.相对于二维Copula函数拟合效果,三维Frank Copula在中高尾部分的拟合有很大提高.三变量联合重现期的计算结果更加贴近实际情况.     

碌碡墕煤管站的雷击风险评估及其对策

根据碌碡墕煤管站的实际情况,遵循《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》的要求对碌碡墕煤管站进行雷击损害风险评估,并按照评估结论给出防雷保护应采取的技术原则和具体措施。     

新一代天气雷达雷击灾害实例分析及其防雷中的若干问题

通过对全国已安装的新一代天气雷达雷击灾害的调查,并结合湖北省武汉、十堰、恩施三部天气雷达雷击事故的分析,揭示了其事故原因主要在于防雷设备安装不完善、部分配置设备安装不合理及施工过程中未采取临时防雷措施。在此基础上,指出了新一代天气雷达防雷中的几个问题:一是雷达站应按行业标准对其采取综合防雷措施;二是对新一代天气雷达楼应科学划分雷电防护区并对各区采取全面的防雷措施;三是雷达辅助配置设备航空障碍灯不宜安装在天线罩顶端;四是在雷达安装施工期间必须增设临时防雷措施。     

回击电流及热效应与闪电光谱和通道温度的相关性分析

依据在青海地区由无狭缝光栅摄谱仪获得的2次多回击云对地闪电的光谱,结合同步辐射电场变化资料,计算了放电等离子体的温度、光谱总强度以及回击通道的峰值电流和作用积分。对观测结果和这些参数进行对比分析,结果表明:(1)同一次地闪的不同回击过程中,光谱总强度与放电电流的大小呈正相关;(2)相邻2次回击的时间间隔较长时,等离子体通道的温度与电流作用积分基本成正比;当相邻2次回击的时间间隔较短时,通道温度与作用积分不再线性相关。     

基于Copula函数的北京强降水频率及危险性分析

客观分析强降水事件的发生频率及其致灾因子危险性,能为局地洪涝灾害的防灾、减灾规划及灾害预警提供科学依据。探讨了基于二元Copula函数的强降水致灾变量联合分布及其在强降水危险性分析中的应用。利用北京地区2005-2014年逐时降水资料提取强降水事件案例,通过建立能反映两个主要致灾因素--降水持续时间和过程降水量依存关系的二元联合分布模型,计算了北京地区强降水事件条件重现期,并以此为基础开展危险性分析。研究表明,北京地区强降水事件的持续时间多小于24 h,且主要服从广义极值和对数正态分布,而过程降水量则更适用于广义极值分布;通过Gumbel Copula函数能较好刻画过程降水量与持续时间的相互依存关系。北京地区短时强降水重现期受持续时间影响明显,仅基于降水量的重现期估算会低估其致灾危险性,利用基于Copula函数的条件重现期能更合理描述不同强降水情景致灾因子的危险性特征及其空间差异性特征。北京地区持续时间小于12 h、过程降水量在50 mm以上的强降水事件多呈东北-西南走向,而持续时间在6 h以内的50 mm以上强降水则在北京城区及东北部地区更加频繁。     

一次华北破纪录暴雪成因的分析研究

采用常规资料和多种非常规资料(卫星图像、多普勒雷达资料及地面自动站资料等)对2009年11月华北地区的大暴雪过程进行了诊断分析,并计算了锋生函数、能量收支、水汽输送等物理量,以探讨暴雪形成的原因。取得以下结果:(1)暴雪过程中出现了回流天气(且伴有"扰动"),这有利于水汽输送和水平辐合的加强,同时,冷高压的南侧低层有"倒槽"存在,对暴雪的形成有重要的作用。(2)雷达观测资料表明,石家庄西南始终有一条辐合线稳定维持,沿此辐合线不断有中尺度云团反复发展,而引起罕见暴雪。(3)由太原及邢台的探空曲线可知,有明显的锋面及逆温区存在,利于不稳定能量的积累。因不存在"暖鼻",故只是降雪无冻雨发生。(4)在上述资料分析和多项动力学诊断的基础上,提出了一类华北暴雪的物理模型。     

Quantifying uncertainty in extreme values of design parameters with resampling techniques

In this paper, a methodology for the selection of statistical models for describing the extreme wave heights on the basis of resampling techniques is presented. Two such techniques are evaluated: the jackknife and the bootstrap. The methods are applied to two high-quality datasets of wave measurements in the Mediterranean and one from the East Coast of the USA. The robustness of the estimates of the extreme values of wave heights at return periods important for coastal engineering design is explored further. In particular, we demonstrate how an ensemble error norm can be used to select the most appropriate extreme probability model from a choice of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). This error norm is based on the mean error norm of the optimised CDF for each resampled (replicate) data series. The resampling approach is also used to present confidence intervals of the CDF parameters. We provide a brief discussion of the sensitivity of these parameters and the suitability of each model in terms of uncertainty with resampling techniques. The advantages of resampling are outlined, and the superiority of the bootstrap over the jackknife in quantifying the uncertainty of extreme quantiles is demonstrated for these records.     

Evaluation of GEV model for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the coast of United States

The three-parameter generalized-extreme-value (GEV) model has been recommended by FEMA [FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency of the United States), 2004. Final Draft Guidelines for Coastal Flood Hazard Analysis and Mapping for the Pacific Coast of the United States. http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=2188] for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pacific coast of the United States. Yet, the GEV model's performance in other coastal areas still needs to be evaluated. The GEV model combines three types of probability distributions into one expression. The probability distributions can be defined by one of the three parameters of the GEV model. In this study, annual maximum water levels at nine water-level stations with long history data (more than 70 years) were chosen for analysis in five coastal areas: Pacific, Northeast Atlantic, East Atlantic, Southeast Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Parameters of the GEV model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Results indicate that probability distributions are characterized by the GEV Type III model at stations in the Pacific, Northeast, and East Atlantic coastal areas, while they are described by GEV Type II in stations of the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. GEV model predictions of extreme water levels show good correlation to observations with correlation coefficients of 0.89 to 0.99. For predictions of 10% annual maximum water levels, the GEV model predictions are very good with errors equal to or less than 5% for all nine stations. Comparison of observations and GEV model estimations of annual maximum water levels for the longest recorded return periods, close to 100 years, revealed errors equal to or less than 5% for stations in the Pacific and Northeast Atlantic coastal areas. However, the errors range from 10% to 28% for other stations located in the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts as well as Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. Findings from this study suggest caution regarding the magnitudes of errors in applying the GEV model to the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts and Gulf of Mexico coast for estimating 100-year annual maximum water levels for coastal flood analysis.     

触发闪电环境下地网冲击接地电阻特征分析

基于触发闪电技术,研究了2019年夏季8次触发闪电44次回击、5次初始连续电流脉冲（ICCP）和24次M分量对冲击接地电阻的影响,探索了冲击接地电阻随雷电流注入的动态变化规律。结果发现：闪电放电ICCP、M分量和回击过程冲击接地电阻均小于工频接地电阻,ICCP和叠加在回击回落之后连续电流上的M分量冲击接地电阻略大于回击过程,平均值分别为11.2Ω和10.8Ω。叠加在回击下降沿上的M分量冲击接地电阻平均值7.8Ω,明显小于回击过程,最小值可达2.4Ω。ICCP和M分量冲击接地电阻随电流增加而减小,回击过程与电流峰值没有明显的相关性。叠加在回击下降沿上的M分量冲击接地电阻随雷电流峰值、背景电流值的增加呈指数衰减关系,还与之前回击电流峰值成一定的反比例关系。随着闪电回击电流的注入,冲击接地电阻呈现动态变化过程,小电流在回击峰值下降后出现一个缓慢增长的过程,大电流在回击峰值下降后出现一个快速下降的过程。闪电不同物理过程火花和电感效应的作用是不同的,两者共同作用决定了土壤的电离程度,从而决定了冲击接地电阻的大小和变化。     

Linear dynamic modeling of a uni‐axial servo‐hydraulic shaking table system

This paper focuses on the development of a linear analytical model (even though servo‐hydraulic actuation systems are inherently non‐linear, especially for large amplitude simulations — near the performance capacity of the system — linearized models proved experimentally to be quite effective overall in capturing the salient features of shaking table dynamics) of a uni‐axial, servo‐hydraulic, stroke controlled shaking table system by using jointly structural dynamics and linear control theory. This model incorporates the proportional, integral, derivative, feed‐forward, and differential pressure gains of the control system. Furthermore, it accounts for the following physical characteristics of the system: time delay in the servovalve response, compressibility of the actuator fluid, oil leakage through the actuator seals and the dynamic properties of both the actuator reaction mass and test structure or payload. The proposed model, in the form of the total shaking table transfer function (i.e. between commanded and actual table motions), is developed to account for the specific characteristics of the Rice University shaking table. An in‐depth sensitivity study is then performed to determine the effects of the table control parameters, payload characteristics, and servovalve time delay upon the total shaking table transfer function. The sensitivity results reveal: (a) a potential strong dynamic interaction between the oil column in the actuator and the payload, and (b) the very important effect of the servovalve time delay upon the total shaking table transfer function. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.