中国区域气候极值重现水平的非平稳模型及趋势分析

应用基于GEV(Generalized Extreme Value)分布的平稳/非平稳极值概率模型,拟合中国区域489站自建站至2013年极端最高、最低温度和日最大降水量的年极值序列,并导出极值的重现水平及其变率随重现期和时间变化的一般表达式。着重分析了气候极值的"常态"(重现期为2年)与"极端态"(重现期为50年)的变化趋势及其线性变率的空间格局。详细探讨了极值的常态与极端态变化趋势相反的原因以及可能的影响。结果表明,极端最高温度在东部季风区普遍适用平稳模型;在其他地区更适用非平稳模型,其常态和极端态都以增温为主。极端最低温度在全国范围内普遍适用非平稳模型,其常态和极端态也都以增温为主,但在东北局部地区极端态呈现与常态相反的降温趋势。日最大降水量则在全国范围内普遍适用平稳模型。当GEV分布的尺度参数随时间变化时,与极值的常态相比,极端态的变率范围要大得多,并可能导致两者的变率异号的情形;尤其是当气候极值的常态日趋平缓而极端态却日益极端时,可能导致更为剧烈的灾害性天气。     

架空线路雷电感应过电压估算与分析

根据雷击时雷电电磁场作用于架空线路的特点,通过建立计算模型推导出雷击点距架空线路任意位置的雷电感应过电压估算公式,对架空线路高度、架空线路距雷击点距离、架空线路旁被雷击物体的高度,以及上升先导长度等各类参数对雷电感应过电压的影响进行了分析,研究了与DL/T620-1997＂交流电器装置的过电压保护和绝缘配合＂标准中架空线路上的雷电过电压估算公式的关系,试图为建筑物内电子和电气设备损坏的原因进行定量分析以及更好地进行线路上的雷电防护设计提供帮助。     

闪电通道垂直假定引起回击辐射场峰值计算误差分析

利用高速摄像系统观测的闪电通道和利用分形方法模拟的闪电通道,分析了通道的垂直假定对回击辐射场峰值计算的影响。结果表明,回击电磁场随方位角的变化非常明显,在距闪电通道几百米距离,误差可达2倍;在1km处,闪电通道的垂直假定对时域回击辐射场峰值计算的相对误差最大为50%左右,平均小于10%。随距离的增加,误差逐渐减小。     

Charge source of cloud-to-ground lightning and charge structure of a typical thunderstorm in the Chinese Inland Plateau

GPS-synchronized measurements of electric (E) field changes induced by lightning flashes were recorded at six stations in the northeastern verge of the Tibetan Plateau. The height and magnitude of charge neutralized by 65 return strokes, including 16 negative cloud-to-ground (CG) flashes and 2 positive CG flashes, have been fitted with the nonlinear least-square method based on the E field changes of CG flashes observed in a typical thunderstorm with larger-than-usual lower positive charge center (LPCC). Results show that the height of the charge region neutralized by negative CG flashes ranges from 3 km to 5 km above the ground, corresponding to an ambient temperature between − 2 °C and − 15 °C. For the two positive CG flashes, the neutralized charge regions are located at a height of about 5.5 km and the ambient temperature is about − 18 °C, indicating the existence of upper positive charge in the thunderstorm.     

“Racism in a Melting Pot…?” Trinidadian mid-life transnational migrants’ views on race and colour-class on return to their homes of descent

This paper deals with second-generation, one-and-a-half generation and “prolonged sojourner” Trinidadian transnational migrants, who have decided to ‘return’ to the birthplace of their parents. Based on 40 in-depth interviews, the paper considers both the positive and critical things that these youthful transnational migrants report about returning to, and living in, this multi-ethnic plural society and the salience of racial and colour-class stratification as part of their return migration experiences. Our qualitative analysis is based on the narratives provided by these youthful returnees, as relayed “in their own words”, presenting critical reflections on racism, racial identities and experiences as transnational Trinidadians. It is clear that it is contexts such as contemporary working environments, family and community that act as the reference points for the adaptation “back home” of this strongly middle-class cohort. We accordingly encounter a diverse, sometimes contesting set of racial issues that emerge as salient concerns for these returnees. The consensus is that matters racial remain as formidable legacies in the hierarchical stratification of Trinidadian society for a sizeable number. Many of our respondents reported the positive aspects of racial affirmation on return. But for another sub-set, the fact that multi-ethnic and multi-cultural mixing are proudly embraced in Trinidad meant that it was felt that return experiences were not overly hindered, or blighted by obstacles of race and colour-class. For these returnees, Trinidad and Tobago is seen as representing a 21st century “Melting Pot”. But for others the continued existence of racial divisions within society - between ethnic groups and among those of different skin shades - was lamented. In the views of these respondents, too much racial power is still ascribed to ‘near-whiteness’. But for the most part, the returnees felt that where race played a part in their new lives, this generally served to advantage them. However, although the situation in Trinidad appears to have been moderated by assumptions that it remains a racial ‘Melting Pot’, the analysis strongly suggests that the colour-class system of stratification is still playing an essential role, along with racial stereotyping in society at large.     

基于路划网络功能的道路选取方法

提出以路划为选取单元以路划网络功能为选取指标的道路选取方法,路划网络功能的衡量指标综合考虑了中心度、连接度、长度等因素,由网络分析获得;选取的道路通过基于图论的逐步搜索保持连通性和规模最小;采用多种结构形态的实际城市局部路网、整体路网进行试验,结果表明该方法能较好地保持路网的整体结构、局部典型结构和道路连贯性,适用于各种形态的路网,具有良好的通用性,较常规的基于路划长度的选取方法具有明显优势。     

国泰商务广场项目雷击损害风险评估

文章对国泰商务广场的人员伤亡、财产损失程度与危害范围等方面进行了雷击风险评估,从而为项目选址、功能分区布局、防雷类别(等级)与防雷措施确定、雷灾事故应急方案等工作提供依据。     

雨滴撞击引起的飞机动量损失分析

近几年来，由于飞机试图在雷暴天气下着陆，发生了若干商用飞机事故。引起事故的主要原因是那些与雷暴单体有关的风切变。事实上飞机除遭遇风切变外，若干飞机还同时陷入大雨单体，由于雨滴撞击和大雨使翼面变粗糙，使飞机遭受动量损失和阻力增大，从而影响了飞机的空气动力性能。通过对雨滴撞击而使飞机遭受的动量损失的分析，作出大雨对飞机空气动力性能影响的评定。     

MicroStation中地图符号的制作与使用

详细论述了在ＭｉｃｒｏＳｔａｔｉｏｎ中制作和使用地形图符号的方法。点状符号按照制作单元的方法制作,存放在单元库中,通过对单元的类型和放置方法的分析,建议主符号设计成点单元,使用时按共享方式放置。线状称号按照线编辑器中自定义线型的制作方法制作,存放在线型库中,结合半依比例尺水闸符号的制作实例具体介绍自定义线型制作的基本方法。面状符号利用ＭｉｃｒｏＳｔａｔｉｏｎ提供的功能,通过编程来完成。     

往返式探空观测资料的质量控制及不确定性分析

为了推动新型探测资料在数值预报模式中的应用,本文进行了往返式探空资料同化应用前重要的基础性研究工作。基于国内首次往返式探空观测资料,首先建立了面向业务化应用的往返式探空资料质量控制方案,通过对比和分析质量控制前后观测样本的统计特征,论证了质量控制方案的合理性,质量控制后探测要素抽样分布更为合理,要素间一致性得到提高。进而以数值天气预报高时间分辨率的模式预报场和同站址业务常规探空观测资料为参考,分析质量控制后资料的不确定性,结果表明往返探空探测精度达到了世界气象组织WMO（World Meteorological Center）规定的突破目标,部分探测要素甚至实现了理想目标,探测资料具有可用性。最后结合数值模式背景场探讨往返探空资料的可同化性,研究表明往返探空的风场观测和夜间温度观测满足变分同化系统的高斯、无偏假定,可直接同化;气压、湿度和日间温度观测在资料同化前需要开展偏差订正工作,从而更有效的发挥资料价值。本文的研究工作为今后往返探空资料在模式中的同化应用奠定了基础。