The Bootstrap Estimation of the Accuracy of Preliminary Orbit Determination

From the point of view of the non-parametric statistics, a general estimation method of the accuracy and con?dence interval of preliminary orbit determination is proposed for the occasion without any other information but observational data. Based on the bootstrap method, the estimation relies only on the observational data and does not require the precise orbit determination as a reference, or the assumption of normal distribution of observational errors. Numerical experiments show that this method is very simple in implementa- tion, and may serve as an easy accuracy evaluation for the preliminary orbit determination and for the follow-up employments.     

常规直流电法在黄河水库南屯地质灾害评价中的应用

黄河水库南屯进行勘查的主要目的就是通过物探方法初步查明地下溶洞存在的情况以及区内的地质概况,为该区地质灾害的评价提供必要的参考依据。通过多种物探方法实验,发现激电中梯、激电联剖及视电阻率测深效果相对较好。由于区内地下水较发育,而且已知塌陷部位都不同程度的含水,水导电性能好.。因此,在地表观测时呈现视电阻率低阻趋势。当溶洞中没有地下水存在时,视电阻率呈现高阻异常。这样就可以通过视电阻率的反映来发现地下溶洞。     

城镇土地集约利用研究

小城镇发展战略地位的确立，加速了城镇化进程，城镇化过程中的用地粗放与人均耕地锐减之间的矛盾，是提出城镇土地集约利用的依据。从城镇土地集约利用内涵界定入手，分析了城镇土地集约利用的必要性，探讨了城镇土地集约利用定量评价的原则，从城镇存量土地产出率、土地利用强度、土地投入强度和土地可持续度4个方面建立了城镇土地集约利用评价指标总系统。指出城镇发展与土地集约利用的途径。     

Realistic simulations of stellar surface convection with ANTARES: I. Boundary conditions and model relaxation

We have implemented open boundary conditions into the ANTARES code to increase the realism of our simulations of stellar surface convection. Even though we greatly benefit from the high accuracy of our fifth order numerical scheme (WENO5) the broader stencils needed for the numerical scheme complicate the implementation of boundary conditions. We show that the effective temperature of a numerical simulation cannot be changed by corrections at the lower boundary since the thermal stratification does only change on the Kelvin–Helmholtz time scale. Except for very shallow models this time scale cannot be covered by multidimensional simulations due to the enormous computational requirements. We demonstrate to what extent numerical simulations of stellar surface convection are sensitive to the initial conditions and the boundary conditions. An ill-conceived choice of parameters for the boundary conditions can have a severe impact. Numerical simulations of stellar surface convection will only be (physically) meaningful and realistic if the initial model, the extent and position of the simulation box and the parameters from the boundary conditions are chosen adequately.     

Application of implicit sub-time stepping to simulate flow and transport in fractured porous media

In general, the accuracy of numerical simulations is determined by spatial and temporal discretization levels. In fractured porous media, the time step size is a key factor in controlling the solution accuracy for a given spatial discretization. If the time step size is restricted by the relatively rapid responses in the fracture domain to maintain an acceptable level of accuracy in the entire simulation domain, the matrix tends to be temporally over-discretized. Implicit sub-time stepping applies smaller sub-time steps only to the sub-domain where the accuracy requirements are less tolerant and is most suitable for problems where the response is high in only a small portion of the domain, such as within and near the fractures in fractured porous media. It is demonstrated with illustrative examples that implicit sub-time stepping can significantly improve the simulation efficiency with minimal loss in accuracy when simulating flow and transport in fractured porous media. The methodology is successfully applied to density-dependent flow and transport simulations in a Canadian Shield environment, where the flow and transport is dominated by discrete, highly conductive fracture zones.     

海域天然气水合物勘测的地球物理方法

到目前为止,已经探明的天然气水合物储量要远小于预测的水合物储量.这种现状不同程度地反映出我们对天然气水合物赋存规律认识不足,和对天然气水合物勘探方法认识不足.本文根据作者多次参加水合物地球物理调查国际航次的认识及文献资料,综述了海域天然气水合物勘探方面一些有效的地球物理技术方法,以利于我国海域天然气水合物的勘探工作以及勘探方法的创新.本文指出,地震勘探是目前进行天然气水合物勘探最常用、也是最重要的方法.地震方法主要包括传统的单道、多道地震方法、高分辨地震方法、深拖多道地震探测方法、海底地震仪方法、多道-多分量海底地震电缆方法、海底地震检波器方法等.此外,根据水合物发育区特有的海底地形地貌特征和水体异常特征,根据水合物发育所需要的温度-压力场特征、电磁特征和含水合物地层的剪切模量特征发展的多波束方法、旁扫声纳方法、海底热流探测方法、海底电磁方法以及海底重力测量方法等都在海域天然气水合物勘探中有着很好的效果.     

人工洞室上直流电阻率法视电阻率的异常特征

直流电阻率法装置种类较多,根据实际地质条件选用不同的装置类型,通过对探测结果进行综合对比分析,可全面地反映地下洞室赋存状态.通过对一地下人工洞室进行多种装置类型直流电阻率法勘查,综合分析了各种装置类型探测结果的视电阻率异常特征,并论述了直流电阻率法探测地下人工洞室的有效性.     

Multi-scale support vector algorithms for hot spot detection and modelling

The algorithmic approach to data modelling has developed rapidly these last years, in particular methods based on data mining and machine learning have been used in a growing number of applications. These methods follow a data-driven methodology, aiming at providing the best possible generalization and predictive abilities instead of concentrating on the properties of the data model. One of the most successful groups of such methods is known as Support Vector algorithms. Following the fruitful developments in applying Support Vector algorithms to spatial data, this paper introduces a new extension of the traditional support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. This extension allows for the simultaneous modelling of environmental data at several spatial scales. The joint influence of environmental processes presenting different patterns at different scales is here learned automatically from data, providing the optimum mixture of short and large-scale models. The method is adaptive to the spatial scale of the data. With this advantage, it can provide efficient means to model local anomalies that may typically arise in situations at an early phase of an environmental emergency. However, the proposed approach still requires some prior knowledge on the possible existence of such short-scale patterns. This is a possible limitation of the method for its implementation in early warning systems. The purpose of this paper is to present the multi-scale SVR model and to illustrate its use with an application to the mapping of Cs¹³⁷ activity given the measurements taken in the region of Briansk following the Chernobyl accident.     

黄河下游标准化堤防纵向裂缝成因与防治

因放淤固堤导致河南、山东堤防多处出现纵向裂缝,严重影响了黄河下游标准化堤防工程建设的质量与进度。通过开展现场调研与室内试验,基于饱和-非饱和渗流-应力耦合及湿化变形理论,探讨黄河大堤纵向裂缝的形成原因,据此制定相应的预防与治理对策。研究表明,淤背施工过快是导致大堤开裂的根本原因,堤身湿化变形、淤区排水不畅、堤顶堆载、堤顶重载车辆作用等加剧了堤身裂缝的形成与扩展;控制淤背施工速率、加速淤区排水、避免堤顶堆载等是预防裂缝的有效措施;锥探灌浆、开挖回填等方法可用于治理裂缝。     

区域经济空间结构理论与方法的回顾

区域经济空间结构理论的发展经历了从19世纪初-20世纪40年代的基于产业、企业的区位选择、空间行为和组织结构规律性研究阶段,和二次世界大战以后-20世纪80年代的区域总体空间结构与形态演化规律研究阶段,以及20世纪80年代以后的新空间经济学阶段.研究重点从抽象的纯理论研究演变为从总体出发寻求各种经济主体在空间中的最优组合与分异的区域经济空间结构演化理论研究.对于区域经济空问结构研究,经典区位论所揭示的区域经济活动的空间分布形态,基本上概括了区域经济空间分异的主要特征性规律,是当今区域经济空间结构演化的基础性理论.区域经济空间结构演化理论是区域经济空间结构演化研究的主要理论,这些理论不仅可以为区域经济空间结构演化研究提供理论范式,也为区域经济空间结构研究提供有益的启示.新空间经济学对经济活动的空间集聚和增长集聚的动力分析,为区域经济空间结构演化研究提供了新思路与方法.伴随区域经济空间结构演化理论的发展,其相应的方法也从静态分析模拟逐步向动态过程的空间演化模拟发展.新方法与技术手段在区域空间结构演变研究中已开始发挥越来越重要的作用,特别是复杂性科学方法和GIS与RS技术的结合展示出良好的应用前景.