基于自适应量子遗传算法的地震重定位及其在山东地区的应用

将自适应量子遗传算法引入到地震定位中,通过多种数值试验证明了算法的有效性,同时也具有较强的全局搜索能力和抗噪能力.即使用于定位的台站数目较少且分布不理想,该算法通过多次反演求取平均值仍然能得到令人满意的结果.另外,利用多次数值试验估测的自适应量子遗传算法的定位精度较高,误差较小.将自适应量子遗传算法应用于山东省及邻区的地震重定位,均方根残差由重定位前的1.162s减小到重定位后的0.621s,重定位后的地震大多位于中上地壳,震源深度小于20km.通过对各剖面震源分布的分析,发现山东省及邻区地震主要受控于区域内的深大走滑断裂,且中强震多发生在高/低速异常体周围,尤以高低速异常过渡地带频发.     

1950年西藏察隅M8.6强震序列震源参数复核

1950年8月15日西藏察隅发生M8.6巨大地震.我们利用收集到的全球239个台站的P波资料,利用我国国家测震台网的常规定位方法和模型,对察隅M8.6强震序列进行了重新定位,并在此基础上重新计算了震源机制解.重定位后的结果表明,察隅M8.6强震序列显示出不同时段的震中分区分布特征:第1阶段是前震,1950年2月23日在墨脱北部雅鲁藏布江大拐弯的顶部发生;第2阶段是1950年8月15日─1950年8月18日,发生主震和之后3天内的余震,都分布在察隅附近,并且这些震中呈北西条带分布;第3阶段的余震是1950年8月22日─1950年9月13日,它们扩展到南部的印度和缅甸地区;第4阶段的余震是1950年9月30日─1951年4月15日,发生在西部的墨脱、错那等地.这四个分区的关联特点为顺时针旋移.重新计算后的震源机制解显示出:主震的NWW走向的节面与主震后2区内余震震中的NWW分布方向一致;序列中所有的压应力轴P和张应力轴T,都接近于水平向,其倾伏角大都小于20°;察隅主震和2区内余震的压应力轴P为近南北向,张应力轴T为近东西向;但3区和4区余震的P轴为近东西向,T轴为近南北向.反映出该强震序列中余震震源机制解的差异比较大.     

阿拉善左旗M_S5.8地震前后地震活动性分析和重定位

2015年4月15日15时39分,内蒙古自治区阿拉善左旗(39.78°N,106.34°E)发生M_S5.8级地震,震源深度为10km.本文通过收集中国地震科学台阵探测——喜马拉雅Ⅱ期布设在南北地震带北段的34个流动台站连续观测数据,首先以中国地震局台网中心目录给出的138个地震事件作为模板,采用匹配定位方法(MatchLocate)对阿拉善左旗M_S5.8地震前后(2015年1月1日至2015年7月31日)小震进行了检测和识别,检测后给出的地震事件高达1688个,相比于台网地震目录的地震事件数目增加了10倍多.然后利用双差层析成像方法(tomoDD)对研究区域内阿拉善M_S5.8地震前后(2015-01-01—2015-07-31)1级以上的地震序列进行重定位,重定位后的结果显示:主震震中为39.8023°N、106.4388°E,震源深度为20.597km,余震序列展布优势方向为NEE方向,且在深度方向呈近垂直分布,结合野外地质调查结果和震源机制解分析,认为该次地震事件为一次走滑型事件,其发震断裂可能是一条近E-W向的隐伏断层.     

Relocation of hypocenters from DOMERAPI and BMKG networks: a preliminary result from DOMERAPI project

Merapi volcano located in central Java, Indonesia, is one of the most active stratovolcanoes in the world. Many Earth scientists have conducted studies on this volcano using various methods. The geological features around Merapi are very attractive to be investigated because they have been formed by a complex tectonic process and volcanic activities since tens of millions of years ago. The southern mountain range, Kendeng basin and Opak active fault located around the study area resulted from these processes. DOMERAPI project was conducted to understand deep magma sources of the Merapi volcano comprehensively. The DOMERAPI network was running from October 2013 to mid-April 2015 by deploying 46 broad-band seismometers around the volcano. Several steps, i.e., earthquake event identification, arrival time picking of P and S waves, hypocenter determination and hypocenter relocation, were carried out in this study. We used Geiger’s method (Geiger 1912) for hypocenter determination and double-difference method for hypocenter relocation. The relocation result will be used to carry out seismic tomographic imaging of structures beneath the Merapi volcano and its surroundings. For the hypocenter determination, the DOMERAPI data were processed simultaneously with those from the Agency for Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) seismic network in order to minimize the azimuthal gap. We found that the majority of earthquakes occurred outside the DOMERAPI network. There are 464 and 399 earthquakes obtained before and after hypocenter relocation, respectively. The hypocenter relocation result successfully detects some tectonic features, such as a nearly vertical cluster of events indicating a subduction-related backthrust to the south of central Java and a cluster of events to the east of Opak fault suggesting that the fault has an eastward dip.     

2016年阿克陶MS6.7地震震源复杂性与烈度

2016年11月25日在我国新疆克孜勒苏州阿克陶县发生M_S6.7地震（阿克陶M_S6.7地震）.我们收集国内外地震资料,对主震及4级以上余震进行了重新定位和震源机制反演,对434次余震进行了双差定位,对主震震源过程进行了反演确定和复杂性分析,并基于反演确定的有限动态源模型估计了此次地震的烈度分布.结果表明：这次地震发生在当地一个近乎东西向展布的小型盆地内,很可能由一条新断层或隐伏断层的活动所致.发震断层近乎直立,近东西向展布,总体上表现为右旋走滑.破裂首先向西扩展,紧接着向东,随后向东西两个方向同时扩展,然后西侧破裂首先停止,东侧破裂继续,最后破裂在东侧停止,整个过程持续~20 s,释放地震矩1.08×10¹⁹N·m,相当于M_W6.6.破裂过程最终形成两个位错高值区,分别位于初始破裂点的东西两侧,西侧高值区规模较小,东侧区规模较大.根据烈度估计,烈度椭圆长轴方向与主震破裂方向以及余震展布方向一致,最大烈度约为IX度,主要集中在震中以东很小的区域,VIII度区呈纺锤形,分布于震中东西两侧,V至VII度区呈椭圆形,总体上东侧烈度大于西侧.     

2017年8月8日九寨沟M7.0地震及余震震源机制解与发震构造分析

2017年8月8日在青藏高原东缘四川省九寨沟县发生M7.0级强烈地震,极震区烈度达Ⅸ度,但无明显地表破裂,一定程度上限制了发震构造的确定和后续地震危险性判定.本文基于截止至2017年8月14日的地震资料,采用多阶段定位方法,对主震及余震进行了重新定位,同时,利用CAP波形反演方法,获得了M7.0主震与13次M_L ≥ 4.0级余震的震源机制解和震源矩心深度,进而初步分析了本次地震的发震构造.结果显示,九寨沟M7.0地震的矩震级M_W6.4,震源矩心深度5 km,表明主震发生在上地壳浅部,与2003年伊朗巴姆（Bam）M_W6.5地震特征极为相似;12次M_L ≥ 4.0级余震的震源矩心深度6~12 km,显示这些余震发生在主震下部,仅1次例外.重新定位后的余震震中呈NW-SE向窄带展布,位于近NS向的岷江断裂与近EW向的东昆仑断裂带东端分支塔藏断裂所夹持的区域,余震带长轴长约38 km,主震位于余震带中部.根据余震震中分布、主震及余震震源机制解等,推测本次九寨沟M7.0地震及其余震的主发震构造为位于岷江断裂与塔藏断裂之间的树正断裂.震源机制解揭示,树正断裂呈左旋走滑,走向约152°,近SE,倾向SW,倾角约70°,该断裂应属于东昆仑断裂东端的分支断裂之一,或与东南侧的虎牙断裂构成统一断裂系.     

2019年6月17日四川长宁MS6.0地震序列震源机制解与发震构造分析

2019年6月17日,在青藏高原东缘四川盆地南缘宜宾市长宁县发生M_S6.0地震,其后5天内相继发生了珙县M_S5.1、长宁M_S5.3和珙县M_S5.4强余震;7月4日,在珙县珙泉镇再次发生M_S5.6地震.因灾害叠加,本次地震序列导致13人死亡,200多人受伤,大量房屋受损,造成了重大的人员伤亡和财产损失.本文基于四川区域地震台网提供的地震资料,采用多阶段定位方法,对长宁M_S6.0地震序列早期（2019年6月17日至22日）余震进行了重新定位,同时,利用CAP波形反演方法,获得了序列中截止至7月4日的16次M_S≥3.6地震的震源机制解与震源矩心深度,对该序列的发震构造进行了初步分析.长宁M_S6.0地震序列重新定位后的610次M_L≥1.5地震分布显示余震区呈NW-SE向展布,长约25 km,宽5 km;序列震源深度在0~10 km区间,深度均值约3.2 km,但空间上呈西深东浅的分布特征.长宁M_S6.0地震位于余震区的东南端,具单侧破裂特征.CAP波形反演结果显示长宁M_S6.0地震序列以逆冲和逆冲兼走滑型地震为主;16次M_S≥3.6地震的震源矩心深度在1~7 km范围,平均深度3.5 km,与定位结果一致,揭示本次长宁地震序列发生在上地壳浅部.根据序列空间分布、震源机制解及震区构造特征,推测本次长宁M_S6.0地震序列的发生可能与长宁—双河复式大背斜中白象岩—狮子滩背斜和双河场褶皱及其伴生断层活动有关,位于余震区西北段的6月17日珙县M_S5.1、22日珙县M_S5.4及7月4日珙县M_S5.6地震应为6月17日长宁M_S6.0地震触发白象岩—狮子滩背斜伴生断层活动所致.序列发震构造整体呈NE-SW向挤压为主、兼具一定NW-SE向拉张分量的构造变形特征,与南侧2018年12月16日兴文M_S5.7和2019年1月3日珙县M_S5.3地震所呈现的NW-SE向挤压、NE-SW向拉张构造变形特征具有显著差异,揭示四川盆地南缘地带处于构造变形模式的转换区域,所处构造环境的变化导致本次长宁地震序列震源区及附近区域发震构造变形特征具有复杂性.     

Firm relocation as adaptive response to climate change and weather extremes

Growing scientific evidence suggests that human-induced climate change will bring about large-scale environmental changes such as sea-level rise and coastal flooding, extreme weather events and agricultural disruptions. The speed and extent of these changes and the expected impacts on social and corresponding economic and industrial systems are now moving to the forefront of debates. In this paper, we argue that climate change will lead to significant disruptions to firms which might ultimately create the necessity of a geographical shift of firm and industrial activities away from regions highly affected by climate change. Such a shift might become necessary due to (1) direct disruptions through climate change impacts on firm operations, for instance through droughts, floods, or sea level rise, and due to (2) disruptions in a firm's supplier, buyer or resource base that lead to flow-on effects and adverse consequences for a firm. We propose a framework for integrating firm relocation decisions into firm adaptive responses to climate change. The framework consists of three assessment steps: the level of risk from climate change impacts at a firm's location, the feasibility of relocation, and associated costs and benefits. We apply the framework to two case examples. The first case of electricity distribution firms in Victoria/Australia illustrates how the relocation (undergrounding) of cables could decrease the vulnerability of distribution networks to bushfires and the risk of electricity-caused fires, but would require significant investments. The second case of firms in the Australian pastoral industry points to geographic diversification of pastoral land holdings as possible adaptation option, but also to constraints in form of availability of suitable properties, ties to local communities, and adverse impacts on biodiversity. Implications for adaptation research and practice are outlined.     

Voluntary relocation - An exploration of Australian attitudes in the context of drought, recycled and desalinated water

Throughout history settlements have been abandoned due to lack of water. Such a fate is of concern to public officials in settlements facing water scarcity - a condition which is anticipated to increase due to the impacts of climate change, and other factors including increasing per capita water use, and population growth. Key questions surround how to best adapt to these circumstances. A strategy little explored is relocation. This paper presents results from a qualitative study conducted in eight geographically diverse Australian locations. The willingness of individuals to relocate under three hypothetical water scenarios was investigated: (1) if the water in their community ran out, (2) if recycled wastewater was put in their community's drinking water supply, and (3) if desalinated water was put in their community's drinking water supply. Results indicate that most people would not relocate if recycled or desalinated water was used to augment their community's drinking water supply, but they would if their water supply ran out. Our results highlight that while there is initial public opposition to the augmentation of existing potable water supplies with recycled or desalinated water, people would prefer these solutions, over being forced to move location. Respondents were highly aware of the social, economic and public infrastructure costs associated with relocation decisions. Relocation would therefore, for most, only be the very last option if their water demands could not be met. However, it was difficult for most to imagine the situation becoming so dire. Our results highlight the importance of a comprehensive and consultative approach to managing supply in water scarce locations.