汶川地震前后的气象异常

有研究认为局地气象异常与地震之间存在着一定的相关性,那么震惊中外的汶川大地震前后有没有气象异常呢?应用NCEP再分析资料,以1988～2007年20年间局地气象要素的平均值和标准偏差为基准,通过构建气象异常指数对2008年5月12日汶川发生的大地震前后的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均降水强度和日平均气压等5项气象要素指标的异常状况进行了分析,结果表明在地震前2个月的时间内有异常状况出现,并且其变化幅度和持续时间都比较长,在地震过后这些异常并未立即消失;从5项气象要素异常空间分异来看,汶川是气象异常的中心地带,表征了汶川地震与局地气象之间存在着一定的相关性。尽管气象异常是否是地震发生的必然前兆尚待进一步考证,但出现在汶川特大地震前后的气象异常再次给我们一个提示,即气象异常与地震的关系值得深入研究。     

Evaluation of the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) precipitation fields in a topographically complex domain

ABSTRACT

The North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) precipitation product was evaluated using station observations and catchment water yield in British Columbia (BC), Canada, at inter-annual, monthly, and daily time scales. A structural break occurred in 2003, associated with exclusion of Canadian precipitation gauge data from NARR’s data assimilation process beginning in that year. The NARR product under-predicted precipitation in mountainous regions, over-predicted in the northern region of BC’s Interior Plateau, and catchment-averaged NARR precipitation was less than observed water yield in coastal BC. The product was unable to reproduce even the seasonal pattern at three stations. This study highlights uncertainties associated with the NARR precipitation product, and presents a cautionary tale that is likely relevant not only to the application of NARR in BC, but may be relevant for other re-analysis products and other regions with complex topography and sparse station networks.     

三套位势高度再分析资料在青藏高原地区的对比分析

利用ERA40、NCEP/NCAR和JRA25再分析资料以及青藏高原（下称高原）地区的探空资料和1979年高原地区第一次气象科学试验资料,较详细地比较了高原地区位势高度的分布和变化特征。结果表明,三套再分析资料在高原地区具有一定的相似性,但仍存在明显的差别。相比较而言,再分析资料与探空资料位势高度值呈显著正相关关系,J...     

Comparative energetics of ERA-40, JRA-25 and NCEP-R2 reanalysis, in the wave number domain

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year Reanalysis (ERA-40), the Japan Meteorological Agency and Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy AMIP-II Reanalysis (NCEP-R2) are intercompared through a global energetics analysis for all seasons.Overall, the Lorenz energy cycle is consistent among the three datasets. The flow of energy and the peaks and slopes in the spectra of the various components agree between the three reanalysis. Additionally, the temporal variability of the energy cycle terms shows consistency between the three reanalysis. Most differences between the three reanalysis are related to the magnitudes of energy forms and energy conversion/transfer rates at each wave number, generally following the relation ERA−40>JRA−25>NCEP−R2, and mainly located in the Southern Hemisphere. The best agreement between the three datasets is found for northern winter. Differences between the three datasets are greater for the other seasons, being greatest for northern summer. In general, these discrepancies are fairly modest, being likely due to the different model biases and resolutions, and the different data assimilation methods used by the respective reanalysis systems. The energetics of the three reanalysis become closer to each other in more recent years, which is likely due to the increase in the number of observations assimilated in the reanalysis.The NCEP-R2 reanalysis spectrum is smoother than those of ERA-40 and JRA-25, likely due to filtering and to its lower resolution model. The spectra show a rapid decrease for short waves in NCEP-R2 (n=36) and ERA-40 (n=63), as a consequence of filtering. The energy source in the nonlinear wave–wave interactions of kinetic energy, L(n), has a narrower spectral range in NCEP-R2 than in the other datasets. Energetics from the newer JRA-25 reanalysis is generally closer to that of ERA-40, with some exceptions as is the case of zonal–wave interactions of kinetic energy, M(n), for synoptic waves, or for eddy available potential energy, A_E, in the lower troposphere, for which JRA-25 is closer to NCEP-R2.     

多种再分析资料中热带气旋潜在生成指数分析

根据7套再分析资料计算的热带气旋潜在生成指数(GPI),分析了GPI对西北太平洋区域台风盛季(7—9月)热带气旋生成的表征能力。结果表明,虽然这些再分析资料计算得到的GPI的空间分布与观测的热带气旋生成特征都比较一致。但是,在时间变化上7套再分析资料计算的GPI对观测热带气旋生成的表征能力差异较大,其中ERA-40(欧州中期天气预报中心再分析资料)和MERRA(美国国家航空和航天局研究和应用再分析资料)的GPI与观测的相关系数较高。进一步分析表明,各套资料GPI之间时间变化的差异主要来自相对湿度,而ERA-40和MERRA的GPI与观测值有较高的相关系数,也与相对湿度有密切关系。     

两套土壤湿度再分析资料在黑河流域的对比分析

利用黑河流域少量观测台站的实测降水和土壤湿度资料, 对比分析了欧洲中心ERA40及美国NCEP R-1两套常用的土壤湿度再分析资料在黑河流域的空间分布、 年际变化和季节循环特征, 结果表明:两套资料在黑河流域均能表现出“南湿北干”的分布格局, 湿度高值中心位于祁连山区东南部\.以此为中心, 土壤湿度从上游山区向中下游递减。ERA40土壤湿度在祁连山区年际变化明显, 与降水的响应关系要好于NCEP资料, 在中下游站点, NCEP 10 cm层土壤湿度对降水的响应好于ERA40。祁连站ERA40土壤湿度在6~8月接近观测值, 在额济纳站两套资料对于土壤湿度的描述都不理想。     

汶川地震前后的气象异常

有研究认为局地气象异常与地震之间存在着一定的相关性,那么震惊中外的汶川大地震前后有没有气象异常呢？应用NCEP再分析资料,以1988—2007年20年间局地气象要素的平均值和标准偏差为基准,通过构建气象异常指数对2008年5月12日汶川发生的大地震前后的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均降水强度和日平均气压等5项气象要素指标的异常状况进行了分析,结果表明在地震前2个月的时间内有异常状况出现,并且其变化幅度和持续时间都比较长,在地震过后这些异常并未立即消失;从5项气象要素异常空间分异来看,汶川是气象异常的中心地带,表征了汶川地震与局地气象之间存在着一定的相关性。尽管气象异常是否是地震发生的必然前兆尚待进一步考证,但出现在汶川特大地震前后的气象异常再次给我们一个提示,即气象异常与地震的关系值得深入研究。     

冬季青藏高原大气热状况分析Ⅰ:气候平均

通过诊断3套再分析资料的非绝热加热场,研究冬季青藏高原上空大气的热力特征.结果表明,与夏季为强热源的特征不同,冬季高原上空不是欧亚大陆上最强的冷源中心.冬季高原上空整体是偏弱的冷源,在高原西侧及东南地区上空甚至出现非绝热加热正值区,这一分析对以往研究提出的高原是冷源的特性给出了修正.各种非绝热加热分量的诊断表明,冬季高...     

中国区域位势高度场探空与再分析资料的对比分析

利用中国高空探空资料和NCEP/NCAR、ERA以及JRA 3种再分析资料,采用偏差、线性趋势、EOF等统计方法,分析、讨论了再分析资料位势高度场在中国区域的适用性问题。结果表明:在年平均场上,探空资料在中国北方地区对流层中存在上升趋势,在平流层低层存在下降趋势;并且有整层变化相同的年际变化特征和对流层南北方反位相变化的年代际变化特征。再分析资料位势高度场数值上普遍小于探空资料;NCEP/NCAR资料与探空资料较为接近。在季节平均场上,探空资料在冬季对流层中存在一致的上升趋势,在春、夏和秋季的长期变化趋势与年平均场类似;探空资料与再分析资料在冬季的偏差最小。不同资料的EOF第一模态分布,在不同季节中差别较大,NCEP/NCAR资料在春季、夏季和冬季适用性较高,ERA资料在秋季适用性较高。     

Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs

Cyclone activity and life cycle are analysed in the coupled GCMs ECHAM5/OM and ECHAM4/OPYC3. First, the results for the present climate (1978–1999) are compared with ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, showing a drastic improvement in the representation of cyclone activity in ECHAM5/OM compared to ECHAM4/OPYC3. The total number of cyclones, cyclone intensity, propagation velocity and deepening rates are found to be much more realistic in ECHAM5/OM relative to ECHAM4/OPYC3. Then, changes in extra tropical cyclone characteristics are compared between present day climate and future climate under the emission-scenario A1B using ECHAM5/OM. This comparison is performed using the 20-year time slices 1978–1999, 2070–2090 and 2170–2190, which were considered to be representative for the various climate conditions. The total number of cyclones does not undergo significant changes in a warmer climate. However, regional changes in cyclone numbers and frequencies are evident. One example is the Mediterranean region where the number of cyclones in summer increases almost by factor 2. Some noticeable changes are also found in cyclone life cycle characteristics (deepening rate and propagation velocity). Cyclones in the future climate scenario tend to move slower and their deepening rate becomes stronger, while cyclone intensity does not undergo significant change in a warmer climate. Generally, our results do not support the hypothesis of enhanced storminess under future climate conditions.