大庆油田西部地区地下水动态监测网优化设计

大庆油田地下水动态监测,网（用水文地质定性方法建立）历经30多年的开采，需要进行定量优化设计，本次研究采用卡尔曼滤波技术与地下水流系统确定－－随机性数值模型相耦合的方法，首先对现有监测网进行质量评价，计算结果表明：监测网在漏斗区（地下水集中开采区）应增加监测孔的数目，调整监测孔的位置，为此，我们拟订了6套12个备选方案，从中选取了由88个监测孔组成的监测网，此监测网无论从监测目标上还是经费上都是最优的。     

River flow mass exponents with fractal channel networks and rainfall

An important problem in hydrologic science is understanding how river flow is influenced by rainfall properties and drainage basin characteristics. In this paper we consider one approach, the use of mass exponents, in examining the relation of river flow to rainfall and the channel network, which provides the primary conduit for transport of water to the outlet in a large basin. Mass exponents, which characterize the power-law behavior of moments as a function of scale, are ideally suited for defining scaling behavior of processes that exhibit a high degree of variability or intermittency. The main result in this paper is an expression relating the mass exponent of flow resulting from an instantaneous burst of rainfall to the mass exponents of spatial rainfall and that of the network width function. Spatial rainfall is modeled as a random multiplicative cascade and the channel network as a recursive replacement tree; these fractal models reproduce certain types of self-similar behavior seen in actual rainfall and networks. It is shown that under these modeling assumptions the scaling behavior of flow mirrors that of rainfall if rainfall is highly variable in space, and on the other hand flow mirrors the structure of the network if rainfall is not so highly variable.     

Frequency–volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides constitute a major public concern in Hong Kong. This paper investigates two aspects of critical importance to landslide hazard and risk assessment and management: magnitude–cumulative frequency relationship for landslides, and relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of landslides. The results indicated that landslides with a failure volume of not less than 4 m³ have a cumulative frequency–size distribution with a power-law dependence on volume of failure. Analysis of rainfall/landslides showed that the 12-hour rolling rainfall is most important in predicting the number of landslides. Failure volume dependency in the relationships between rainfall and the number of landslides is also presented. However, with an increase in failure volume of landslides, the most important rainfall variable may vary from rainfall of short duration (12-h rolling rainfall) to that of relatively long duration (24-h rolling rainfall).     

理塘毛垭温泉近期特大异常的调查与分析

本文首次弄清了毛垭温泉测点的局部地质环境，确定了测泉的水文地质性质和类型，弥补了建点基础资料之不足。采用常规的调查追踪方法对该前兆观测点近期出现的特大异常进行了较为详细地落实，并简要分析了调查结果。     

降雨对地电阻率干扰的分析

在一些地电阻率观测台站受本身台址条件的限制，观测深度较浅，因此，观测值受到降雨等气象因素的影响。本文选取昌黎台ＥＷ向１９８３－１９９４年观测资料月均值，用褶积滤波和多元回归方法对ρｓ进行了降雨校正，将将之作为一个灰箱系统，将资料外推至１９９５４上，然后与原始观测值作残差分析，取得了一定效果。     

震兆图象的远程遥联性

通过研究我国一些震情窗口成组震兆与大陆及边邻Ms≥7.0级地震的整体链式活动的对应关系,指出这些窗口的成组震兆具有远程遥联的特点。对这种特点的深入研究将有可能为我国大陆及边邻地区地震活动的总体大形势作出估计。     

亚热带马尾松人工林的降雨截留作用

本文通过分别实测降雨过程中林外降雨、林内降雨及树干截流的变化,分析了不同降雨量、降雨持续时间、前期降雨等因素的影响,讨论了马尾松人工林地内雨量分布的变化特点,并提出了计算模式。统计分析结果表明,林内雨和树干流只有当降雨分别到达1.6mm和4.32mm的情况下才出现,其总量分别占林外降雨的75％和4.3％,并以面源和点源的形式输入流域。此外,还阐述了降雨过程中林地内营养元素的输入及循环过程的特点。     

云南破坏性地震与气象要素的关系

本文认为云南破坏性地震与降水和地面气温之间有着密切的关系。在雨季,震中位于发震前一月内降水分布高值中心附近,发震前半月内震中均有中雨以上的降水出现,且其中出现大～暴雨的概率为60%,发震前一月内震中降水量比同期多,年平均值偏高,震前半月内地面平均气温距平值的高值中心总是位于震中附近。而在干季则恰恰与此相反,即震中位于降水分布低值区,发震前后降水都很少,震中降水量比同期多年平均偏低,震前半月内地面平均气温距平值的高值中心总是位于震中下风方向约120km处。这些结果对提高震前短期预报水平具有现实意义。     

祁连山空中云水资源开发潜力研究新进展

祁连山及河西走廊地区是我国气候变化敏感区和生态脆弱区。本文通过对2005a以来祁连山云水资源相关最新研究成果的总结,旨在揭示气候变暖对祁连山云水资源影响包括气候变化、水汽时空变化、地形云特征的基础上,分析评估了祁连山云水资源开发潜力及效益。实验研究表明,在祁连山区开展人工增雨(雪)作业,每年可增加降水量3.7×10_⁸～７.4×10_⁸m_³。近10年来,甘肃春季飞机人工增雨作业年均增加降水量为13.5×10_⁸m_³,平均投入产出比为1:30。     

Paleolimnological assessment of human impacts in Lake Blanca, SE Uruguay

Paleolimnological techniques were used to assess human impacts onLake Blanca, a small (0.6 km²), coastal fresh waterbodyin southern Uruguay, which is the drinking water source for 100,000 localresidents. We retrieved a core that extends to about 1100 ¹⁴Cyr BP. ²¹⁰Pb ages, organic mater, CO₃, totalcarbon, nutrients, fossil pigments and diatoms allowed us to establishlimnological conditions before and after cultural impacts. Soil removal(1880–1960) and intensive cattle and sheep grazing (1943–1966) ledto gully formation in the catchment. This watershed erosion resulted inincreased sedimentation rates. The aquatic system appeared to be mesotrophicwith dominance of epibenthic diatoms until 1966, at which timeeutrophication intensified with forestry activities. Increases in nutrients, aswell as blooms of planktonic diatoms, were observed. During the last decade,tourist/urban development as well as high drinking water demand caused areduction in lake area. Subsequent marked increases in rainfall led to furtherphytoplankton blooms and macrophyte proliferation.