用可见光与红外云图资料综合作降雨量估算的试验

利用红外和可见光云图亮温资料估算单站降水量级,结果发现红外和可见光云图结合估算降水量效果比单用红外云图效果要好,大雨的空报率明显降低。     

Changes in an urban water resource,an example from Sydney,Australia

This paper examines present and future resource utilization in the tidal section of the Georges River in the southern part of Sydney. Over the last 30 years, the physical characteristics of the river have changed as a result of urbanization, changed hydrologic regime and sand dredging. Urbanization has resulted in an increase in population from 190,000 in 1947 to 550,000. This has resulted in an increase in runoff, sediment input to the river and waste disposal. The change in hydrologic regime has resulted in a substantial increase in the magnitude and frequency of flooding which has increased erosion. Sand dredging has increased the channel capacity, enlarged the tidal prism and increased water turbidity. It has also resulted in extensive bank erosion in the upper part of the river and extensive deposition lower down as tailings are deposited. Although most of these changes have resulted in the deterioration of environmental quality, use of the river for recreation and as an urban amenity has increased.     

基于TRMM卫星资料的渤海降水遥感估算研究

降水是全球能量平衡和水分循环中的关键要素,但海洋区域实时、准确的降水观测资料难以获取,因此,遥感卫星资料在海洋降水及全球能量和水分循环研究领域具有十分重要的应用前景。本文基于1998~2012年6个气象站点(岛屿或海岸带)的实测降水资料,评估TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission)V7版本3B42、3B43两个降水产品对渤海降水量的估算精度,在此基础上,分析并揭示渤海区域年、季和月降水量的时空特征。结果表明:在日尺度,3B42产品对渤海降水量的估算效果总体较差,而在月、年尺度,3B42、3B43产品与实测降水量比较接近,而且,3B43产品的估算精度稍高;总体上,TRMM表现出低估降水的特点,且当实测月降水量大于300 mm时,这种特征尤为显著;1998~2012年,渤海年降水量表现出明显的年际丰枯变化特征,多年均值为631.6 mm;夏季降水量占年降水总量的62.0%,7月是降水量最丰富的月份;空间上,渤海中南部降水量相对较高,而近岸区域降水量相对较低;受大气环流等因素的影响,夏季降水量重心向西北方向偏移,冬季则向东南方向偏移。     

基于双多普勒雷达及闪电资料分析一次强降水过程

为进一步了解多普勒雷达及闪电资料在中小尺度天气系统方面的应用以及降水系统动力结构的研究,利用合肥和阜阳两部S波段多普勒雷达资料,通过两步变分反演法反演双雷达,并采用模糊逻辑算法进行云类型识别,再结合垂直累计液态水含量VIL、降水和闪电分布特征,分析了2010年6月7-10日发生在安徽合肥和阜阳的一次持续性强降水过程。结果表明:此次持续性强降水过程与风场的低层辐合和高层辐散、风场的气旋性旋转以及水平风切变相关;此次降水过程是以层状云降水为主的积云混合云降水;另外,以降水为主的层状云,其闪电频数低且以负闪为主,闪电之后20 min左右出现强降水;此次暴雨的VIL值不是很大,强降水区对应的VIL值基本3 kg·m-2;云识别结果、降水区、VIL值与雷达回波强度之间的对应关系较好。     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

河流生态系统结构功能整体性概念模型

在完善与整合现有河流生态系统结构功能概念及模型的基础上,提出河流生态系统结构功能整体性概念模型。水文情势、水力条件和地貌景观格局是对河流生态系统结构与功能具有关键影响的3大生境要素,结构功能模型的核心是建立以3大生境要素为构架的生命支持系统与河流生命系统之间的相互作用和相互制约关系,同时考虑由于人类活动引起生境要素变化对于河流生态系统的影响。河流生态系统结构功能整体性概念模型由以下4种模型组成:河流四维连续体模型、水文情势-河流生态过程耦合模型、水力条件-生物生活史特征适宜模型以及地貌景观空间异质性-生物群落多样性关联模型,这4种模型的一体化整合,基本概括了河流生态系统结构功能的整体特征。     

构造应力环境对浅成岩体成矿系统的制约:从安庆月山岩体冷却过程动力学计算模拟结果分析

为探讨构造应力环境对浅成岩体成矿系统的制约,以安庆地区的月山岩体及其所形成的安庆铜矿床为例,在传统地质调查研究的基础上,通过假设不同的力学边界条件进行岩体冷却过程动力学的计算模拟实验研究。计算结果显示,在没有构造应力作用时,在岩体的接触带上不可能形成有利成矿定位的局部汇流扩容空间,挤压和拉伸作用都能够在岩体接触带形成局部汇流扩容空间,但二者的空间分布规律有着极大的差别,只有拉伸构造应力作用下的动力学计算模拟实验能在已发现矿体部位形成汇流扩容空间,表明构造应力环境对成矿定位的汇流空间的制约以及拉伸构造应力作用对月山岩体成矿的重要贡献。在拉伸构造应力和无构造应力作用时,接触带上的流体压力都是随着变形的进程而趋降低的,只有在挤压构造应力作用下,流体压力才会有一个超压的过程,流体超压是形成斑岩型矿床的重要机制。可见挤压环境才是一种有利于斑岩型矿床成矿的构造环境,铜陵-安庆地区缺乏与矽卡岩矿床相对应的斑岩型矿床主要原因之一是成矿时处于一种拉伸的构造应力作用环境。     

腾格里沙漠南部格状沙丘的形态演变及移动特征

沙丘的形态变化与移动蕴含区域风沙环境和地貌演化的关键信息,是风沙地貌研究的重要内容。以腾格里沙漠南缘的长格状和方格状沙丘为研究对象,利用风况资料和Google Earth卫星影像,监测2009—2020年两种格状沙丘的形态变化并分析其移动特征。结果表明：(1)腾格里沙漠西南缘和东南缘的主风向均为西北风,长格状沙丘分布区的次风向为东南风,方格状沙丘分布区次风向为东风和东南风,都属于低风能环境、中变率风况。西南部风能环境大于东南部,研究区近10年风动力呈衰减趋势。(2)格状沙丘的主副梁长度和间距在增加,其中,长格状沙丘高度增加,方格状沙丘高度在降低。沙丘主梁向东偏移,副梁向南偏移,形态整体保持稳定。(3)长格状沙丘平均移动速率为1.57～1.71 m·a^-1,方格状沙丘平均移动速率为1.63～2.01 m·a^-1,沙丘平均移动方向与合成输沙方向基本一致,沙丘的体积是造成移动速率差异的主因。     

Medium and small embankment dams on permafrost: A discussion of current concepts

This article discusses the current concepts of dam design and construction in permafrost regions. It is demonstrated that embankment dams often change their state from frozen to thawed and back during the operation period. It is shown that these transitions are not always attributable to observed climate warming. Where geotechnical, hydrogeological, and permafrost conditions are complicated, proper performance of embankment dams can only be provided by adhering to a selected thermal design for, as an example, a frozen state.     

准全球陆表干旱严重程度的多传感器遥感监测方法研究

在全球气候变暖的背景下,持续的干旱事件将对生态系统和人类社会产生不利影响。尽管存在多源卫星遥感资料及多种干旱指数,然而区域和全球尺度干旱事件的监测仍具有挑战。采用TRMM（Tropical RainfallMeasuring Mission）数据量化降水异常、MODIS（Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer）归一化植被指数（Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI）和陆表温度（Land Surface Temperature,LST）数据表征植被生长异常,构建了一种兼顾降水异常和植被生长状况异常的多传感器陆表干旱严重程度指数（Multi-sensorsDrought Severity Index,MDSI）。结果表明:MDSI 能够准确检测准全球范围（50°S～50°N,0°～180°～0°）的气象干旱事件,如亚马逊流域2005 和2010 年干旱、中国川渝地区2006 年干旱、中国云南2010 年干旱、非洲东部2011 年干旱、2012 年美国中部干旱等;MDSI 与PDSI（Palmer Drought Severity Index）呈现出大致相同的干湿空间格局,并且MDSI 有助于湿润地区干旱程度的检测。