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251.
基于人工神经网络的区域地质灾害危险性预测评价 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
地质灾害危险性预测评价的准确性,主要取决于基础资料的可靠性和数学模型的合理性。论文结合工程实例,尝试用人工神经网络方法(改进的神经网络BP模型)对区域地质灾害危险性预测进行评价研究。然后与目前常用的方法(如层次分析法、信息量法和模糊综合评判法等)所得出的结果相比较。结果表明,运用人工神经网络方法对区域地质灾害危险性预测评价相对常用方法更准确、可靠,具有一定的实用意义及推广价值。 相似文献
252.
253.
安冬亮 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2007,1(5):29-31
应用1994—2003年NCEP逐日再分析资料,对石河子地区10a夏季出现的10次持续性高温天气过程进行了综合分析,总结了石河子地区高温天气的主要环流及相关物理量的特征,提出了石河子地区夏季高温天气的预报模型。 相似文献
254.
通过对凤山县地质灾害统计分析,提出了降雨是诱发地质灾害的主要因素,建立地质灾害气象条件等级预报的简易方法。 相似文献
255.
WANG Wei WANG Quan WANG Chao 《地球空间信息科学学报》2007,10(3):213-217
As an important role in the development of ITS, traffic assignment forecast is always the research focus. Based on the analysis of classic traffic assignment forecast models, an improved traffic assignment forecast model, multi-ways probability and capacity constraint (MPCC) is presented. Using the new traffic as- signment forecast model to forecast the traffic volume will improve the rationality and veracity of traffic as- signment forecast. 相似文献
256.
We demonstrate the possibility to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of superconducting gravity time-series by correcting for
local hydrological effects. Short-term atmospheric events associated with heavy rain induce step-like gravity signals that
deteriorate the frequency spectrum estimates. Based on 4D modeling constrained by high temporal resolution rain gauge data,
rainfall admittances for the Vienna and Membach superconducting gravity stations are calculated. This allows routine correction
for Newtonian rain water effects, which reduces the standard deviation of residuals after tidal parameter adjustment by 10%.
It also improves the correction of steps of instrumental origin when they coincide with step-like water mass signals. 相似文献
257.
利用德国降水预报输出的24和48h降水预报产品,对2005年1—12月巴音郭楞蒙古自治州(简称巴州,下同)9个气象站分别进行了降水预报效果的检验分析,统计分析其在各月、各季、年的降水预报能力,得出其空报率较大,准确率和漏报率较低,但对巴州南部地区的大降水天气有一定的指导意义。 相似文献
258.
Robert J. Kieber Joan D. Willey Robert F. Whitehead Seth N. Reid 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2007,58(3):219-235
Significant photodegradation of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) in rainwater was observed after exposure to simulated
sunlight. Fluorescence excitation emission spectra (EEMS) of precipitation revealed the presence of four major peaks all of
which degraded upon photolysis with the greatest loss in the region characteristic of marine CDOM. Photobleaching of absorbance
also occurred in the wavelength region between 250 and 375 nm with the greatest loss of absorbance in the upper end of the
UV-A region near 275 nm. There was a strong positive correlation between absorbance loss and total integrated fluorescence
loss suggesting these optical properties and the degree to which they are photobleached in rainwater are directly related.
The quantum yield of CDOM photodegradation in rainwater decreased dramatically with increasing wavelength and decreasing energy
of incoming radiation with the average quantum yield at 325 nm approximately an order of magnitude greater than at 460 nm.
The similarity of photolytic response between rainwater and Cape Fear estuarine CDOM indicates that some fraction of the compounds
that make up rainwater CDOM may be derived from surface sources and/or that the processes that produce or modify humic-like
substances in the atmosphere result in similar types of compounds as non-atmospheric processes. 相似文献
259.
提出了利用精密单点定位(precise point positioning,PPP)技术进行海啸预警的方法,并利用TriP软件对实测浮标数据进行了处理,将得出的海面高数据和海啸波模型叠加进行了模拟分析。仿真结果表明,利用精密单点定位技术进行海啸预警,能够监测判断海啸的发生,并获得海啸波到达海岸的波高和时间,提供一定的预警信息。 相似文献
260.
The goal of the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) is to improve the understanding of the interactions between the atmosphere and the continental surface in climate and weather forecast models. In PILPS Phase 4(b), selected schemes are coupled to the Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS) developed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. To facilitate the comparison of PILPS schemes' behavior within LAPS, a single mode of coupling is selected: explicit coupling. This type of coupling is more flexible and avoids most of the problems raised when interchanging the surface schemes. Exploratory tests are conducted. Initially, experiments are run in which the land-surface schemes use the same parameters as in their original host models. Then, in other runs, the most important surface parameters are set constant in an attempt to reduce the scatter amongst the schemes' results. In order to understand the impact of initialisation of soil moisture on the schemes' results some extreme cases (wet and dry) are performed. The partitioning between surface fluxes is studied as well as the soil moisture budget. Both regional and local results are analysed. Sensitivity between LSS is found in the precipitation field with rainfall over the Australian continent altering by about 20%, but no significant change is found in the net radiation. The scatter in the surface energy fluxes amongst the schemes is large (up to 300 W m−2 locally, during the daytime peak) but is seldom affected by the choice of surface parameters. The dynamical range of flux partitioning between extremely dry and wet initialisation varies strongly amongst the schemes. Some major shortcoming with the BUCKET approach are seen in the re-evaporation of convective precipitation over dry land, in the very large evaporation from wet surfaces and the diurnal cycle of surface temperature. 相似文献