ANALYSES OF THE DYNAMIC EFFECTS ON WINTER CIRCULATION OF THE TWO MAIN MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE--Ⅱ.VERTICAL PROPAGATION OF PLANETARY WAVES

A linear,hemispheric and stationary spectral model with multilayers in the vertical was employed to simulate the vertical propagation of waves triggered by mountains.Results show that,in cooperation with the East Asia zonal mean flow,Tibetan Plateau can excite a strong wavenumber 1 perturbation in the stratosphere with its ridge and trough located over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans respectively.On the other hand,the stratospheric wavenumber 1 perturbation caused by the mechanical forcing of the Rocky Mountains in cooperation with the North America zonal mean flow is very weak.Calculations from observational data of the vertical profile of critical wavenumber for vertically propagating waves imply that the tropospheric wavenumber 1 perturbation can hardly penetrate the North America tropopause upwards,whereas it can freely propagate through the East Asia tropopause into the stratosphere.Two-dimensional E-Pcross-sections obtained from both observational data and simulated results also demonstrate that waves excited by the Rocky Mountains are refracted towards low latitudes in the troposphere during their upward propagation:whereas,in addition to the above mentioned equatorward leaning branch,the wavenumber 1 and 2 planetary waves excited by the Tibetan Plateau possess another branch which is refracted to high latitudes during upward propagation and penetrates the tropopause into the stratosphere.It is therefore concluded that the difference in the horizontal and vertical wave propagations in the two hemispheres is a result of the different dynamical forcing induced by the two main mountains in the Northern Hemisphere.     

火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究

文章系统地总结了火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究，主要结论如下:近百年至千年的气候变化和火山活动关系密切，强火山喷发可造成平流层4℃以上的增温和地表年、月平均温度约0.4℃、1℃的下降。地表温度下降的时空分布受许多因素的影响，如火山喷发特征（包括喷发位置、季节、强度等）；海陆分布；火山气溶胶的光学特性；及其由直接辐射强迫引起的经向潜热输送的变化等等。同时还回顾了1991年皮纳图博喷发的有关研究及其对全球气候的可能影响的数值模拟工作。     

辐射通量密度和加热率的计算结果对垂直分层的敏感性

本文利用一个一维辐射传输模式，分析了模式垂直分层对辐射通量密度和加热率计算结果的影响，以示在辐计算方案的应用中选择合理的垂直分层的必要性，结果表明：长波辐射通量和加热率对垂直分层的改变反映敏感；辐射通量最大偏差出现在对流层中层，以中纬度模式大气为例，其值为１４Ｋ／ｍ＾２（相对偏差６％）；长波冷却率的偏差在低层比较明显，最大可达１．０℃／ｄａｙ；在高原地区，垂直分层对近地层加热率的影响更为明显，偏差     

Modeling the Global Thermohaline Circulation

This paper reviews recent progress and problems in modeling the thermohaline circulation of the world ocean by use of z-coordinate ocean general circulation models. Discussions focus on four issues: sea surface forcing, mixing in the deep ocean interior, eddy-induced tracer transport, and bottom boundary layer processes. Although some widely used techniques and parameterizations deal with these issues, some aspects are still overlooked and more sophistication is certainly required. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Modelling surface drifting of buoys during a rapidly-moving weather front in the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea

The Gulf of Finland is an elongated estuary located in the north-eastern extremity of the Baltic Sea. This semi-enclosed sea-area is subject to heavy sea traffic, and is one of the main risk areas for oil accidents in the Baltic. The continuous development and validation of operational particle drift and oil-spill forecasting systems is thus seen to be essential for this sea-area.Here, the results of a three-day drift experiment in May 2003 are discussed. The field studies were performed using GPS-positioned surface floating buoys. The aim of this paper is to evaluate how well models can reproduce the drift of these buoys. Model simulations, both in forecast and hindcast modes, were carried out by three different 3D hydrodynamic models, the results of which are evaluated by comparing the calculated drifts with observations. These models were forced by HIRLAM (High Resolution Limited Area Model) and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) meteorological forecast fields.The simulated drift of the buoys showed a good agreement with observations even when, during the study period, a rapidly-changing wind situation was observed to affect the investigation area; in this situation the winds turned about 100 degrees in half an hour. In such a case it is a very complicated task to forecast the drifters' routes: there is a need to regularly update the meteorological forcing fields and to use these regularly-updated fields throughout the simulations. It is furthermore recommended that forecasts should be made using several circulation models and several meteorological forecasts, in order to get an overview of the accuracy of the forecasted drifts and related differences in between the forecasts.     

Modelling Thermohaline Properties in an Estuarine Upwelling Ecosystem (Ría de Vigo: NW Spain) Using Box-Jenkins Transfer Function Models

Since 1987, twice weekly, hydrological variables have been monitored at a fixed station in the Ría de Vigo (NW Spain), aiming to examine the time scales of variability and the relationships to meteorological conditions. The present paper analyses: (1) the advantage of Box-Jenkins transfer function (TF) models (single output–multiple input), a type of linear stochastic model, to describe the dynamic behaviour of the system; and (2) the coupling between the Ría and meteorological events at the time scale of autonomy of this coastal inlet affected by the Iberian coastal upwelling, approximately a fortnightly period. In order to achieve these objectives, thermohaline properties have been used to characterize the estuarine ecosystem (output variables), while wind regime, runoff in the drainage basin and incoming solar radiation have been considered as the main forcing variables (input variables). The use of the amplitude time series, derived from principal component analysis (PCA) applied to the deseasonalized meteorological variables, is also explored as a different set of input variables.When compared with standard regression models, all TF models built to describe thermohaline behaviour had reduced residual variance. Similar TF models, as well as percentage of explained variance, were also obtained when meteorological variables or the amplitude time series were used as input variables. The fitted TF models provided an insight into the ‘ inertial ’ behaviour of the system and the time scales of coupling of the system with the forcing variables. The plausible physical mechanisms which link the response of the system with the observed meteorological variability are also discussed. As could be expected, bottom thermohaline properties show a stronger inertial behaviour than the surface ones, which is particularly marked for bottom temperature. Besides, the shelf domain, by means of upwelling-downwelling events, strongly influences surface and bottom temperature, as well as bottom salinity; by contrast, surface salinity is mainly influenced by the effect of wind along the main axis of the Ría and runoff. In relation to the time scales of coupling between the system and the forcing variables, thermohaline properties show a dependance with the meteorological conditions in, at least, the immediately preceding fortnight period. It was concluded that: (1) TF models that incorporate meteorological information described the dynamic behaviour of the system adequately; and (2) this type of model can be useful as a first approximation to develop more sophisticated (deterministic) models, since, with the purpose of modelling any state variable of the system, both the coupling between different domains and the time scales of the interactions must be taken into account.     

Two decadally resolved records from north‐west European peat bogs show rapid climate changes associated with solar variability during the mid–late Holocene

Two ¹⁴C accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) wiggle‐match dated peat sequences from Denmark and northern England record changes in mire surface wetness reconstructed using plant macrofossil and testate amoebae analyses. A number of significant mid–late Holocene climatic deteriorations (wet shifts) associated with declines in solar activity were recorded (at ca. 2150 cal. yr BC, 740 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 930, cal. yr AD 1020, cal. yr AD 1280–1300, cal. yr AD 1640 and cal. yr AD 1790–1830). The wet shifts identified from ca. cal. yr AD 930 are concurrent with or lag decreases in solar activity by 10–50 years. These changes are replicated by previous records from these and other sites in the region and the new records provide improved precision for the ages of these changes. The rapidly accumulating (up to 2–3 yr cm^?1, ～1310 yr old, 34 ¹⁴C dates) Danish profile offers an unprecedented high‐resolution record of climate change from a peat bog, and has effectively recorded a number of significant but short‐lived climate change events since ca. cal. yr AD 690. The longer time intervals between samples and the greater length of time resolved by each sample in the British site due to slower peat accumulation rates (up to 11 yr cm^?1, ～5250 yr old, 42 ¹⁴C dates) acted as a natural smoothing filter preventing the clear registration of some of the rapid climate change events. Not all the significant rises in water table registered in the peat bog archives of the British and Danish sites have been caused by solar forcing, and may be the result of other processes such as changes in other external forcing factors, the internal variability of the climate system or raised bog ecosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

不同辐射强迫对暖干复合事件强度长期趋势信号检测的影响

本文基于Copula联合概率建立表征暖干复合事件强度的指数,基于单个辐射强迫的地球系统模式大样本模拟试验的结果,使用4种场显著性检验的方法分析了不同辐射强迫下中国区域整体暖干事件强度长期趋势信号的可检测性。结果表明,4种方法得到的结论较为一致,均表明全强迫(自然外强迫和人为外强迫)下中国大部分区域复合事件的强度显著增强,不同集合成员之间的趋势较为一致,表明长期趋势主要受外强迫而非气候系统内部变率影响,其长期趋势的外强迫信号大约出现在2005年。在单个温室气体强迫的模拟试验下,复合事件强度的长期趋势更为明显,主要体现在强度更强并且长期趋势中外强迫信号出现的时间更早(约2000年)。但是在单个气溶胶强迫下,尚检测不到暖干事件强度长期趋势的外强迫信号。进一步分析表明,温度变化是暖干事件强度长期趋势变化的主要贡献因素。温室气体强迫下温度的贡献更大,尤其是在我国西部地区。