基于OLR的热带气旋移向预报方法研究

运用GMS-5气象卫星的OLR资料,研究了2001～2002年6月10日～8月10日西北太平洋上15个热带气旋的移动方向。选取多个OLR特征值因子及热带气旋中心最低海平面气压,结合《热带气旋年鉴》资料,采用统计回归的方法,得到热带气旋未来6、12、24小时移向的客观预报算式,其结果与年鉴中移向之间的复相关系数分别达到0．954、0．945、0．914。用预留的2001年6号台风作检验,结果很好。该方法可在日常的业务预报中试用,有助于提高热带气旋移向的预报水平,尤其是对移向突变的热带气旋具有较强的预报能力。     

A NURBS-based high-order panel method for three-dimensional radiation and diffraction problems with forward speed

A high-order Rankine panel method based on Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline (NURBS) is developed for solving the three-dimensional radiation and diffraction problems with forward speed. A NURBS surface is used to precisely represent the body geometry. Velocity potential on the body surface is described by B-spline after the source density distribution on the boundary surface is determined. A collocation approach is applied to numerical computation and the integral equations are evaluated by applying Gauss–Legendre quadrature. The m_j-terms are evaluated by a desingularized method which utilizes NURBS technique. In order to verify the method proposed, it is firstly applied to the unbounded flow problem of a sphere and spheroids. The numerical results are found to be in good agreement with analytical solutions. Then the method is used to solve the radiation and diffraction problems of a sphere and the diffraction problem of a spheroid moving with a forward speed beneath the free surface in frequency domain. The numerical results are satisfactory in comparison with the published analytical results and experimental results.     

星内粒子探测器观测结果与辐射带模型的比较

我们将资源一号卫星星内粒子探测器的观测数据与辐射带模式AE8/AP8的预测结果进行了对比,发现在南大西洋异常区的高能电子和质子的通量与辐射带模型的预测结果基本相同,而在两极极光带的电子通量比AE8模型预测的低得多.根据NOAA卫星的观测结果,可以认为这一差异主要是因为在南大西洋异常区（内辐射带）和两极极光带（外辐射带）的粒子投掷角分布的差异造成的.在南大西洋异常区粒子倾向于各向同性分布,而在极光带粒子各向异性明显,投掷角接近90°的粒子通量比0°投掷角附近的粒子通量大得多.     

净化湖泊水体氮污染的固定化硝化-反硝化菌研究

依据太湖水体氮污染的特点,设计应用低温辐射技术引导玻璃态单体丙烯酸羟乙脂－２－Ｈｙｄｒｏｘｙｅｔｈｙｌ ａｃｒｙｌａｔｅ（ＨＥＡ）与聚乙二醇二甲基丙烯酸酯Ｐｏｌｙｅｔｈｙｌｅｎｅ ｇｌｙｃｏｌ ｄｉｍｅｔｈａｃｒｙｌａｔｅ（１４Ｇ）制备高分子载体,并使用增殖细胞技术固定化硝化－反硝化菌净化湖水。研究结果表明,富营养化湖水经过固定化硝化－反硝化菌ＳＢＲ工艺净化后,总氮下降７０％,氨氮下降８４％,ＣＯ     

美国中东部地震台阵波场的三分量波形梯度

波形梯度法是一种全新的台阵数据处理技术,该方法利用子台阵中的波形差异可以得到一些基本的地震波传播参数.本文首次将其应用于美国中东部地震台阵面波的三分量研究当中.首先通过垂向分量的面波进行波形梯度分析,得到垂直分量面波的相速度、传播方向、几何扩散和辐射花样.再通过垂向分量得到的传播方向进行坐标旋转,从而得到了径向分量以及切向分量的面波,再将其应用于波形梯度分析,分别得到径向分量以及切向分量面波的相速度、传播方向、几何扩散和辐射花样.利用2012年8月27日发生在中美洲西海岸地震事件的三分量地震数据的面波波形得到的结果显示,在相同周期,研究区域的三个分量面波的相速度分布横向差异显著.切向分量面波的相速度分布特征差异较大,可能是由于径向各向异性造成的.三个分量的传播方向变化都不大,且切向分量的传播方向变化大于垂直分量与径向分量,说明地震波的切线分量在传播过程中受到的影响更大,同时还可以看出传播方向的变化呈现出条带状的特征.几何扩散和辐射花样都是与地震波的振幅项有关的信息,三个分量的几何扩散特征基本一致.但是由于切向分量传播方向变化相对较大,可能导致了切向分量面波的辐射花样有所差异.     

移动线源的Green函数求解及辐射能量分析:高铁地震信号简化建模

在基于人工主动源的勘探地震学中,往往采用固定位置和激发时间的点源数学模型来描述爆炸型震源或可控震源,因此就有了描述单点力源作用下的弹性全空间或半空间中弹性波传播的Green函数,成为了勘探地震学的重要理论基础.而如今,行进中的高速列车(高铁)是一种全新的主动源,其接近匀速的运行速度、确定的长度和荷载使其可以被重复利用.本文将行进中的高铁在数学上简化建模为一个移动线源来进行研究,给出了这一震源作用下的弹性半空间和全空间中Green函数的计算方法,并分别讨论了全空间中远场Green函数的频谱特征和空间辐射能量的方向性特点,以及半空间中Green函数与近场观测数据的对比结果,为高铁震源下的地震波传播规律和振动信号的研究与利用提供帮助.     

高分辨红外辐射探测器地表温度数据在江苏地区1980—2009年间适用性评估

地表温度在物理和生物过程中起着关键作用,也是评价地表热环境的重要指标。因此,了解地表温度时空变化对城市热岛监测及生态质量的评价具有重要意义。高分辨红外辐射探测器地表温度(HIRS LST)是目前时间尺度最长的全球逐小时地温数据集。为了解江苏省地表温度的时空分布情况并研究HIRS LST数据在江苏的适用性,论文选择江苏省1980—2009年49个站点的实测地表温度数据,利用相关系数、偏差、非偏性均方根误差等方法,对HIRS产品从多角度进行了验证。结果表明,HIRS地表温度与站点地表温度数据有较好的一致性。两者相关系数在整个区域都高于0.98,2种数据的距平相关系数在0.65~0.80之间。两者偏差和非偏性均方根误差表明,HIRS的数据在江苏北部和南部部分地区低估了地表温度,主要原因是其对高于32 ℃的地温事件发生次数存在较大程度的低估。然而,HIRS LST在很大程度上高估了在20~30 ℃之间的较高温日数。在年际变化方面,HIRS LST与观测数据在春季的相关性最高,冬季最低。趋势检验表明,2种数据在春、秋、冬3个季节均呈现出明显的增长趋势,增温趋势呈现出相似的空间变化。但是,该地区夏季的地表温度长期趋势被明显高估,HIRS数据并未反映出该地区北部大面积的降温趋势,而在其他季节的地表温度被低估。     

青藏高原云闪起始阶段放电特征分析

2003年夏季在青藏高原那曲地区进行了雷电综合观测试验,利用宽带干涉仪系统获取的闪电资料,根据辐射源定位结果和相应的电场变化对云闪放电起始阶段进行了分析,初步分析结果表明:雷暴过境时地面电场为正值的情况下,云闪放电多发生在中部负电荷区和下部正电荷区之间,上部正电荷区一般不参与放电。虽然不同的云闪会有不同的放电发展过程,但放电起始阶段具有相似的特征。云闪放电起始于中部负电荷区,在初始几十毫秒内,辐射源垂直向下发展,云内负流光向下发展速度约为1.14~1.72×105m/s。在下部正电荷区内,闪电通道可以垂直发展,也可以水平发展。且发生在正电荷区的放电过程比较复杂,正电荷区辐射点比负电荷区要多。     

Modelling the influence of environmental factors on the physiological status of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas in an estuarine embayment; The Baie des Veys (France)

It is well known that temporal changes in bivalve body mass are strongly correlated with temporal variations in water temperature and food supply. In order to study the influence of the year-to-year variability of environmental factors on oyster growth, we coupled a biogeochemical sub-model, which simulates trophic resources of oysters (i.e. phytoplankton biomass via chlorophyll a), and an ecophysiological sub-model, which simulates growth and reproduction (i.e. gametogenesis and spawning), using mechanistic bases. The biogeochemical sub-model successfully simulated phytoplankton dynamics using river nutrient inputs and meteorological factors as forcing functions. Adequate simulation of oyster growth dynamics requires a relevant food quantifier compatible with outputs of the biogeochemical sub-model (i.e. chlorophyll a concentration). We decided to use the phytoplankton carbon concentration as quantifier for food, as it is a better estimator of the energy really available to oysters. The transformation of chlorophyll a concentration into carbon concentration using a variable chlorophyll a to carbon ratio enabled us to improve the simulation of oyster growth especially during the starvation period (i.e. autumn and winter). Once validated, the coupled model was a suitable tool to study the influence of the year-to-year variability of phytoplankton dynamics and water temperature on the gonado-somatic growth of the Pacific oyster. Four years with highly contrasted meteorological conditions (river inputs, water temperature and light) 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, were simulated. The years were split into two groups, wet years (2000 and 2001) and dry years (2002 and 2003). Significant variability of the response of oysters to environmental conditions was highlighted between the four scenarios. In the wet years, an increase in loadings of river nutrients and suspended particulate matter led to a shift in the initiation and the magnitude of the phytoplanktonic spring bloom, and consequently to a shift in oyster growth patterns. In contrast, in the dry years, an increase in water temperature—especially during summer—resulted in early spawning. Thus, the gonado-somatic growth pattern of oysters was shown to be sensitive to variations in river loadings and water temperature. In this context, the physiological status of oysters is discussed using a relevant indicator of energy needs.     

Contribution of different generations of the brown shrimp Crangon crangon (L.) in the Dutch Wadden Sea to commercial fisheries: A dynamic energy budget approach

In this paper a contribution is made to the ongoing debate on which brown shrimp generation mostly sustains the autumn peak in coastal North Sea commercial fisheries: the generation born in summer, or the winter one. Since the two perspectives are based on different considerations on the growth timeframe from settlement till commercial size, the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory was applied to predict maximum possible growth under natural conditions. First, the parameters of the standard DEB model for Crangon crangon L. were estimated using available data sets. These were insufficient to allow a direct estimation, requiring a special protocol to achieve consistency between parameters. Next, the DEB model was validated by comparing simulations with published experimental data on shrimp growth in relation to water temperatures. Finally, the DEB model was applied to simulate growth under optimal food conditions using the prevailing water temperature conditions in the Wadden Sea. Results show clear differences between males and females whereby the fastest growth rates were observed in females. DEB model simulations of maximum growth in the Wadden Sea suggest that it is not the summer brood from the current year as Boddeke claimed, nor the previous winter generation as Kuipers and Dapper suggested, but more likely the summer generation from the previous year which contributes to the bulk of the fisheries recruits in autumn.