天气学检验在东北区域数值模式秋冬季降水预报中的应用

根据影响天气系统不同,利用2007年9月－2008年2月东北区域中尺度数值模式12h累积降水预报和东北地区常规站降水实况资料,采用天气学检验方法,从降水中心强度、中心位置、降水主体强度、落区、范围和移速6个方面对东北区域中尺度模式降水预报产品的预报性能进行检验。结果表明：模式对东北地区秋、冬季降水有很好的预报能力,但因天气系统和预报时效不同其预报能力也有较大差异,其中对高空槽预报效果最好;一般情况下,在预报出现偏差时中心和主体强度易偏强,雨带范围易偏大,移速易偏慢。     

Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River Catchment, China

Runoff in Haihe River Catchment of China is steadily declining due to climate change and human activity. Determining abrupt changes in runoff could enhance identification of the main driving factors for the sudden changes. In this study, the sequential Mann–Kendall test analysis is used to determine abrupt changes in runoff in eight sub-catchments of Haihe River Catchment, while trend analysis via the traditional Mann–Kendall test for the period 1960–1999 is used to identify the basic trend of precipitation and runoff. The results suggest an insignificant change in precipitation and a significant decline in runoff in five of the eight sub-catchments. For most of the sub-catchments, abrupt changes in runoff occurred in 1978–1985. Through correlation comparisons for precipitation and runoff for the periods prior to and after abrupt runoff changes, human activity, rather than climatic change, is identified as the main driving factor of runoff decline. It is also noted that abrupt decline in runoff was actually at the beginning of China’s 1978–1985 land reform. Given that the land reform motivated farmers to productively manage their reallocated lands, agricultural water use therefore increased. Hence percent agricultural land is analyzed in relation to land use/cover pattern for the late 1970s and early 1980s. The analysis shows that when cultivated farmland exceeds 25% of a sub-catchment area, an abrupt decline in runoff occurs. It is therefore concluded that high percent agricultural land and related agricultural water use are the most probable driving factors of runoff decline in the catchment.     

Evaluation, modification, and application of the Effective Drought Index to 200-Year drought climatology of Seoul, Korea

In this paper, progressive methods for assessing drought severity from diverse points of view were conceived. To select a fundamental drought index, the performances of the Effective Drought Index (EDI) and 1-, 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month Standardized Precipitation Indices (SPIs) were compared for drought monitoring data accumulated over 200-year period from 1807 to 2006 for Seoul, Korea. The results confirmed that the EDI was more efficient than the SPIs in assessing both short and long-term droughts.We then proposed the following methods for modifying and supplementing the EDI: (1) CEDI, a corrected EDI that considers the rapid runoff of water resources after heavy rainfall; (2) AEDI, an accumulated EDI that considers the drought severity and duration of individual drought events; and (3) YAEDI, a year-accumulated negative EDI representing annual drought severity. In addition to these indices, to more accurately measure and diagnose droughts, we proposed the utilization of (4) the Available Water Resources Index (AWRI), an existing index that expresses the actual amount of available water.Using the improved methods above, we assessed and summarized important droughts that have occurred in Seoul over the 200 years from 1807 to 2006.     

西北地区近50年降水周期的稳定性分析

用小波分析和奇异谱分析两种方法相结合对西北地区26个站1951—1999共49年的降水周期随时间的变化进行了分析。结果表明： 西北地区降水周期随时间变化具有较强的区域性;宁夏陕北地区和河西走廊地区近50年的降水变化趋势呈反位相关系;根据近30年西北地区降水变化形式,西北地区大致可分为3种类型的降水变化：①不稳定变化型（新疆地区）;②过渡型（河西走廊地区）;③稳定型（宁夏陕北地区）。近50年西北地区降水普遍存在的准3年左右的周期在20世纪70~80年代显著性下降,5～7年左右的周期和9～14年左右的长周期也随时间有着不同的变化;即各地区所有周期成分的稳定性都显著性地随时间发生变化,各地降水普遍存在一个相对比较稳定的但不太显著的10年左右的平衡态。表明西北地区的降水随时间变化具有多平衡态和非周期性振荡的特点。但西北大部分地区都存在某一特定的周期成分,在该固定周期成分出现前后,其振幅变化与该地区降水趋势变化之间存在着密切关系。     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation maxima during 1960–2005 in the Yangtze River basin and possible association with large-scale circulation

This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns of trends of the precipitation maxima (defined as the annual/seasonal maximum precipitation) in the Yangtze River basin for 1960–2005 using Mann–Kendall trend test, and explored association of changing patterns of the precipitation maxima with large-scale circulation using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The research results indicate changes of precipitation maxima from relative stable patterns to the significant increasing/decreasing trend in the middle 1970s. With respect to annual variability, the rainy days are decreasing and precipitation intensity is increasing, and significant increasing trend of precipitation intensity was detected in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin. Number of rain days with daily precipitation exceeding 95th and 99th percentiles and related precipitation intensities are in increasing tendency in summer. Large-scale atmospheric circulation analysis indicates decreasing strength of East Asian summer monsoon during 1975–2005 as compared to that during 1961–1974 and increasing geopotential height in the north China, South China Sea and west Pacific regions, all of which combine to negatively impact the northward propagation of the vapor flux. This circulation pattern will be beneficial for the longer stay of the Meiyu front in the Yangtze River basin, leading to more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin in summer months. The significant increasing summer precipitation intensity and changing frequency in the rain/no-rain days in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin have potential to result in higher occurrence probability of flood and drought hazards in the region.     

TRMM卫星探测青藏高原谷地的降水云结构个例分析

利用TRMM卫星测雨雷达探测反演的降水廓线、红外辐射温度、微波高频辐射亮温和闪电资料,并结合数字地形资料和NCEP再分析资料,分析研究了1999年5月4日13:05(UTC,下同)青藏高原东南部某山谷及附近地区(29.49°N~30.13°N,95.08°E~96.89°E)的降水云结构。结果表明,该降水云团为特殊地形强迫而引起的一强对流降水;强对流降水云团水平范围约20km,它自谷地向上呈“蘑菇”状向上水平展开;最大降水率位于谷中云体下部,超过100mm.h-1;在谷地上方该强对流降水云团云体向下风方向延伸,形成下风方向大范围的弱降水。结果还表明,强对流降水云团中剧烈变化的地表降水率也反映在云团云顶红外辐射温度和云体微波辐射亮温的变化上。此外,虽然闪电附近云顶高度和云中的含冰量相差甚小,但闪电发生次数、持续时间和发出的辐射能量却十分不均。降水事件的天气背景分析表明,降水发生前13h内,高原500hPa一弱低压槽东移引起的大气低层辐合、中高层辐散及大气不稳定性增加,是此次降水事件发生的大气内在因素。     

青藏高原东部雨季OLR与降水变化特征及相关分析

利用美国NOAA系列气象卫星观测的1974年6月—2003年12月(其中1978年3~12月缺测)2.5°×2.5°经纬网格月平均射出长波辐射(OLR)资料,以及青藏高原上84个测站同期月总降水量资料,采用EOF方法,取前3个载荷向量及主分量讨论其空间和时间变化特征。结果表明:(1)在雨季(5~9月)降水量的高值中心与OLR的低值中心基本重合,OLR可以较好地反映降水情况。(2)近30年雨季高原台站平均降水量呈增加趋势,高原平均OLR有减小趋势,两者在时间变化上有较好的反相关性。(3)在雨季,高原OLR东南部低,西北部高;降水量的分布则相反,是东南多西北少,OLR低值中心与降水高值中心相对应,在高原主体两者之间的相关系数达到了-0.35以上(通过α=0.05显著性水平检验)。(4)降水与OLR在整体空间特征中呈相反趋势,结合主分量(PC1~PC3)的变化,可以得到高原北部降水减少,南部增加;而OLR则相反,北部增大、南部减小。OLR与降水的空间异常特性呈相反变化分布,这进一步揭示了在高原雨季OLR与降水两者的负相关关系。     

甘肃省冬, 春季人工增雨雪作业条件分析

从冬、春季人工增雨雪的工作需要出发,分析了与冬、春季降水关系密切的部分气象要素多年变化特征,统计了有利于甘肃冬、春季人工增雨雪的4种环流型、云系与降水的关系,并根据它们与冬、春季降水的关系,分析了有利于人工增雨雪作业的天气气候背景。     

Review Paper: Methods of measurement for 4D seismic post-stack time shifts

The estimation of time-lapse time shifts between two, or several, repeated seismic surveys has become increasingly popular over the past eighteen years. These time shifts are a reliable and informative seismic attribute that can relate to reservoir production. Correction for these time shifts or the underlying velocity perturbations and/or subsurface displacement in an imaging sense also permits accurate evaluation of time-lapse amplitudes by attempting to decouple the kinematic component. To date, there are approximately thirty methods for time-shift estimation described in the literature. We can group these methods into three main families of mathematical development, together with several miscellaneous techniques. Here we detail the underlying bases for these methods, and the acknowledged benefits and weaknesses of each class of method highlighted. We illustrate this review with a number of time-lapse seismic examples from producing fields. No method is necessarily superior to the others, as its selection depends on ease of implementation, noise characteristics of the field data, and whether the inherent assumptions suit the case in question. However, cross-correlation stands out as the algorithm of choice based on the Pareto principle and waveform inversion the algorithm delivering best resolution. This is a companion study to the previous review of time-shift magnitudes and a discussion of their rock physics basis.