Spatio-temporal evaluation of global gridded precipitation datasets across Iran

ABSTRACT

In this work, the accuracy of four gridded precipitation datasets – Climatic Research Unit (CRU), Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), PERSIANN-Climate Data Record (PCDR) and University of Delaware (UDEL) – is evaluated across Iran to find an alternative source of precipitation data. Monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation data from 85 synoptic stations for the period 1984–2013 were used as the basis for the evaluations. Our results indicate that all datasets underestimate and overestimate precipitation in stations with annual precipitation greater than 600 and less than 100 mm, respectively. However, all datasets correctly recognize regimes of precipitation, but with a bias in amount of precipitation. Our spatio-temporal assessments show that GPCC is the most suitable dataset to be used over Iran. Both UDEL and CRU can be considered as the second and third most suitable datasets, while PCDR showed the weakest performance among the studied datasets.     

Combined analysis of precipitation and water deficit for drought hazard assessment

Abstract

The combined analysis of precipitation and water scarcity was done with the use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), developed as a monthly, two-variable SPI-SRI indicator to identify different classes of hydrometeorological conditions. Stochastic analysis of a long-term time series (1966–2005) of monthly SPI-SRI indicator values was performed using a first-order Markov chain model. This provided characteristics of regional features of drought formation, evolution and persistence, as well as tools for statistical long-term drought hazard prediction. The study was carried out on two subbasins of the Odra River (Poland) of different orography and land use: the mountainous Nysa K?odzka basin and the lowland, agricultural Prosna basin. Classification obtained with the SPI-SRI indicator was compared with the output from the NIZOWKA model that provided identification of hydrological drought events including drought duration and deficit volume. Severe and long-duration droughts corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 3 (dry meteorological and dry hydrological), while severe but short-term droughts (lasting less than 30 days) corresponded to SPI-SRI Class 4 (wet meteorological and dry hydrological). The results confirm that, in Poland, meteorologically dry conditions often shift to hydrologically dry conditions within the same month, droughts rarely last longer than 2 months and two separate drought events can be observed within the same year.     

一套格点化的中国区域逐日观测资料及与其它资料的对比

为高分辨率气候模式检验等的需要,基于2400余个中国地面气象台站的观测资料,通过插值建立了一套0.25°×0.25°经纬度分辨率的格点化数据集(CN05.1).CN05.1包括日平均和最高、最低气温,以及降水4个变量.插值通过常用的"距平逼近"方法实现,首先将计算得到的气候平均场使用薄板样条方法进行插值,随后使用"角距权重法"对距平场进行插值,然后将两者叠加,得到最终的数据集.将CN05.1与CN05、EA05和APHRO三种日气温和降水资料(四种资料的分析时段统一为1961-2005年)进行对比,分析了它们对气候平均态和极端事件描述上的不同,结果表明几者总体来说在中国东部观测台站密集的地方差别较小,而在台站稀疏的西部差别较大,相差最大的是青藏高原北部至昆仑山西段等地形起伏较大而很少或没有观测台站的地方,反映了格点化数据在这些地区的不确定性,在使用中应予以注意.     

DUST FALL IN THE TAKLA MAKAN DESERT OF CHINA

The Takla Makan Desert is one of the supposed sources of eolian deposits in the eastern China and the North Pacific Ocean. Lack of direct measurements hinders the theoretical interpretation of material exchange between the atmosphere and land surface as well as the sediment budget of the region. From 1992 to 1994, four measuring sites were established in the vicinity of 84°E meridian along a 380 km observation traverse from the northern margin to the central desert. Data were collected on quantities of dust fall and sedimentary characteristics of airborne sediments, including grain-size distributions as well as chemical and mineral compositions. The quantities of annual dust fall were 10² to 10³ tons km^-2 yr^-1, increasing from the margin toward the central desert. Monthly concentrations of particles finer than 0.02 mm in diameter ranged from 0.06 to 1.25 mg m^-3 over the three-year observation period. The elemental ratio and the element enrichment factor ruled out the Takla Makan Desert as possible sources of the dust in Hawaii and Alaska. The mean geometric diameter of airborne sediments in the 4 to 8 m surface layer from the Luntai oasis was 0.038 mm and from the interior ranged 0.064 to 0.067 mm being moderately to poorly sorted. Weight percent of particles finer than 0.063 mm in diameter were from 83.5% to 47.7%, decreasing toward the central desert. Distributions of the airborne particles were unimodal with peak diameters of 0.06 to 0.07 mm in the central desert and 0.02 to 0.06 mm in the sites toward the edge of the desert. [Key words: dust fall, sedimentary characteristics, Takla Makan Desert.]     

济南泉域地下水位动态及其对降水响应的交叉小波分析

利用1988—2009年济南泉域8个地下水位动态观测点不同时段观测资料及1998—2009年降水数据,采用连续小波变换、交叉小波变换方法对济南泉域地下水位动态的多时间尺度特征、相互关系及其对降水的响应进行了分析。结果表明:①济南泉域地下水位动态存在显著的0.82～1.16 a的主振荡周期,低频部分仅在部分年份存在1.95～3.09 a的振荡周期;②含水岩组富水性对地下水位动态存在影响,研究区主径流方向上弱富水性地段地下水位动态时滞较强富水性地段长,强富水性地段4个观测孔地下水位波动时序基本一致;③地下水位动态对降水的响应滞后明显,为73.06～134.42 d,总体表现为地下水径流路径越长,响应越滞后;④基于地下水位动态与基于降水—地下水位动态交叉小波变换得到的观测点对水位动态的滞后时间多数一致,同一径流路径上局部点对滞后时间之和与全局点对有很好的对应关系。交叉小波分析可定量评价泉域地下水位动态及其与降水的相关关系。     

Links between NAO fluctuations and inter-annual variability of winter-months precipitation in the Seine River watershed (north-western France)

The inter-annual to multi-decadal winter variability (DJFM) of precipitation on the Seine River watershed (France) was analysed using continuous wavelet transform analysis and compared to the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI). Nine weather stations were used over the 1951 to 2004 period and confirmed the homogeneity of inter-annual fluctuations for all stations but one. Wavelet coherence between SLP over the Icelandic and Azores regions and precipitation highlighted coherence for different scales of variability according to the centre of action considered. Segmentation and wavelet analysis and coherence between precipitation and NAOI over a long period of time (1873–2004) showed: i) increasing variability across the last century at most time scales, especially for NAOI; ii) the existence of change points for the mean and variance of both signals; iii) overall discontinuity of the coherence whatever the scale considered, especially between ∼1910 and ∼1955 for inter-decennial to pluri-decennial scales.     

三种干旱指数在山西省干旱分析中的比较

利用1957-2003年山西省30个测站逐月、逐年降水量、平均气温资料、降水距平百分率、帕尔默指数和Z指数等三种干旱指数的计算方法和判定标准,分别在山西省北部、中部、南部和全省的旱涝状况进行判定的基础上,对三种干旱指数的判定结果进行了比较和相关分析。结果表明：（1）从旱涝年发生频次来看,降水距平百分率判别干旱的趋势可信...     

青藏高原北部地区地震基本活动状态定量评价

基于区域构造背景、应力场状态及动力学环境等,将青藏高原北部地区划分为4个相对独立的统计单元,即祁连山地震带、甘东南地区、柴达木一共和地块及库玛地震带.通过地震频度和b值拟合确定了各个地区不同下限震级的地震目录完整性起始时间;确定了各构造单元中强以上地震活跃与平静交替活动的特征;定量计算了在平均状态中强以上地震活动特征参数及平静阶段与活跃阶段地震活动特征参数;分别获得了各个区域在平均、活跃与平静状态下的小震活动状态参数.     

WRF模式在南京数值天气预报中的应用

利用最新版本的WRFV3.1进行了南京地区的高分辨率的数值天气预报,对预报结果进行了细致的评估,结果表明：模式很好的预报出了温度、相对湿度及风场的逐日变化特征。0~24 h预报的平均温度和实况基本一致,预报的击中率为0.73;预报的平均相对湿度较实况偏高了0.3%,击中率为0.74;模式预报的风场跟实况较为吻合,对风速增大、减小的趋势预报非常准确。另外, 模式对层云降水预报较好,能很好的把握了降水的强度及空间变化,但对积云强降水预报,结果不理想,降水范围、强度均偏小,持续时间偏短。