The double-edged sword of learning from disasters: Mortality in the Tohoku tsunami

Learning from natural disasters is predominantly regarded as beneficial: Individuals and governments learn to cope and thereby reduce damage and loss of life in future disasters. We argue against this standard narrative and point to two principal ways in which learning from past disasters can have detrimental consequences: First, investment in protective infrastructures may not only stimulate settlement in hazard-prone areas but also foster a false impression of security, which can prevent individuals from fleeing to safe places when hazard strikes. Second, if disaster events in the past did not have catastrophic consequences, affected individuals do not take future events sufficiently seriously. As a consequence, learning from disasters is a double-edged sword that can prevent large scale damage and human loss most of the time but results in the worst case scenario when a disaster occurs at an unexpected scale and public preparedness measures fail. We demonstrate the devastating impact of misplaced trust in public preparedness measures and misleading lessons drawn from past experience for the case of the 2011 Tohoku tsunami. Our paper contributes to the literatures on ‘negative learning’ and ‘hazard maladaptation’ by demonstrating that a lack of past experience with tsunami mortality in a municipality substantively increases mortality in the Tohoku tsunami.     

Conditions influencing the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in South America’s commodity frontiers

Reducing large-scale deforestation in commodity frontiers remains a key challenge for climate change mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity. Public and private anti-deforestation policies have been shown to effectively reduce forest loss, but the conditions under which such policies get adopted are rarely examined. Here we propose a set of conditions that we expect to be associated with the adoption of effective anti-deforestation policies in commodity frontiers. We then examine whether these conditions have influenced policy adoption in South America’s major soy-and-cattle frontiers: the Brazilian Amazon, the Cerrado, the Chaco, the Chiquitano, and Paraguay’s Atlantic Forest. By collating empirical data from diverse sources, including literature review, extensive expert interviews, and analysis of primary and secondary data, we show that the Cerrado, the Chaco, and the Chiquitano differ from the Brazilian Amazon in multiple ways that might have inhibited adoptions of effective anti-deforestation instruments. These conditions include: a higher importance of the agricultural sector within the respective countries, lower carbon stocks and species richness, higher prevalence of private land tenure, and higher baseline compliance with forest reserve regulations on private lands. We also observe that the adoption of the most effective private anti-deforestation instrument, commodity moratoria, may respond to similar conditions as those influencing the adoption of public instruments. Incentivizing public and private actors to adopt effective anti-deforestation policies in the Cerrado, Chaco, and the Chiquitano will likely be more challenging than it has been in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Extreme weather exposure and support for climate change adaptation

Policy efforts to address climate change are increasingly focused on adaptation, understood as adjustments in human systems to moderate the harm, or exploit beneficial opportunities, related to actual or expected climate impacts. We examine individual-level determinants of support for climate adaptation policies, focusing on whether individuals’ exposure to extreme weather events is associated with their support for climate adaptation policies. Using novel public opinion data on support for a range of adaptation policies, coupled with high resolution geographic data on extreme weather events, we find that individuals experiencing recent extreme weather activity are more likely to support climate change adaptation policy in general, but that the relationship is modest, inconsistent across specific adaptation policies, and diminishes with time. The data thus suggest that experiencing more severe weather may not appreciably increase support for climate adaptation policies.     

Socioeconomic characteristics and crash injury exposure: A case study in Florida using two-step floating catchment area method

The objective of this study is to investigate the exposure of different population groups to severe injury crash hotspots using an empirical-Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (EG-2SFCA) method based on roadway network distances and a socioeconomic-based weighting approach. This is performed by developing a special form of a crash-to-population ratio index that incorporates the severe crash hotspots relative to the locations of populations they might impact. While identifying these hotspots, four different age groups are considered: 17 and younger, 18 to 21, 22 to 64 and 65 and older. For each age group, severe crash hotspots are identified based on the roadway network and the number of severely injured crash occupants that belong to the specific age group. Using these age-specific crash hotspots and the EG-2SFCA method, communities that were exposed to elevated crash injury risk (crash injury exposure) have been identified. Furthermore, from a residential perspective, a socioeconomic analysis is conducted in order to develop a socioeconomics-based crash injury exposure measure. This measure assesses the exposure of different socioeconomic groups to the risk of being injured. Results demonstrated by applying this measure in the Tampa Bay region, FL show that different population groups are under varying risk of being injured depending on their residential location. The developed approach has the potential to be a social fairness measure able to be applied by agencies, which could enhance the well-being of communities that are subject to elevated injury risk.     

PPGIS approach for defining multimodal travel thresholds: Accessibility of popular recreation environments by the water

It is essential to ensure equal accessibility to services, such as sport and recreation facilities or green and water environments. Differences in accessibility can potentially cause negative health and social welfare implications. Accessibility and service area analyses from the perspective of access equality are typically rather simple. They are often based on arbitrary travel-distance thresholds and made only with a single mode of transport in mind. Thus, they exclude the multidimensional nature of accessibility where individuals' travel behavior and perceived accessibility also play an important role. In this paper, a PPGIS method was used to empirically investigate distances and durations that respondents travel with different modes of transport to access popular water environments. Service area analyses were built on person-based and objectively measured threshold values that not only take into account the spatio-temporal elements of transport networks and a land use component but also recognize the requirements and preferences of individuals and their capacity to access and participate. The results showed that the most common mode of transport to access waters is walking. Generally, the residents travel by foot for 1.7 km to access water environments. Cars were found as the second most common mode of transport used, and most of the popular water environments are accessible by car from every corner of the study area in a given travel threshold time. The results demonstrate the importance of deriving local parameters and the potential of the PPGIS approach for accessibility and service area delineation.     

Man and Nature: George Perkins Marsh and Alexander Von Humboldt

George Perkins Marsh's book Man and Nature was the first work of natural history to fundamentally influence American politics. This paper establishes the powerful impact that Alexander von Humboldt's writings had on Marsh. Marsh took ideas that Humboldt introduced across his books and synthesized them into a single powerful argument regarding the dangers of deforestation. These warnings eventually led to policies that sought to more carefully manage forestland, plant trees, and spawn the 20^th century conservation movement.     

Do perceptions of the Red‐tailed Hawk indicate a human‐wildlife conflict on the island of La Gonave,Haiti?

The Caribbean subspecies of the Red‐tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis solitudinus or B.j. jamaicensis) is the largest native carnivore on the island of La Gonave, Haiti, and the island's apex predator. On other Caribbean islands, raptors have been persecuted by local people typically because of their depredation of livestock. In addition to possible persecution from humans, Red‐tailed Hawks on La Gonave face challenges from island‐wide timber overharvest and rapid land‐cover changes. To better understand the human‐apex predator relationship on La Gonave, we surveyed islanders about their perceptions of, and interactions with, the Red‐tailed Hawk. According to 121 respondents from 10 villages, La Gonavans do not hunt, kill, or consume Red‐tailed Hawks. Our study revealed a notable absence of negative perceptions of the hawk by respondents despite intense hawk depredation of domestic chickens. While the chicken depredation may lead outside observers to consider the human‐hawk relationship on La Gonave as representative of a human‐wildlife conflict, our interview data do not support that conception. Our findings reflect an important conversation in related contemporary scientific literature about what constitutes human‐wildlife conflicts across various cultures. Despite tolerance by residents, Red‐tailed Hawks on La Gonave remain threatened by habitat degradation.     

“Natural cycles” in lay understandings of climate change

This article analyses lay understandings of climate change elicited through a longitudinal population-based survey of climate change, place and community among 1162 residents in the Hunter Valley, Southeast Australia. We explore how older residents in contrasting rural and coastal geographic areas perceive climate change information in terms of culturally relevant meanings and values, lived experiences and emotional responses to seasonal cycles, temperature fluctuations and altered landscapes. Thematic analysis of comments given by 467 interviewees to an open-ended question identified a significant subset for whom the concepts of “nature” and “science” express competing views about changing climatic conditions. For them, the idea of “natural cycles” is a significant cultural construct that links nature and humans through time in a way that structures stable and resilient understandings of environmental change, drawing on established cosmological frameworks for contemplating the future in relation to the past. In contrast to other studies that postulate scepticism and denial as individuals’ fear management strategies in the face of climate change threat, we found that the natural cycles view is founded on a reassuring deeper conviction about how nature works, and is linked to other pro-environmental values not commonly found in sceptical groups. It is a paradox of natural cycles thinking that it rejects the anthropocentrism that is at the heart of science-based environmentalism. By contrast, it places humans as deeply integrated with nature, rather than operating outside it and attempting with uncertain science to control something that is ultimately uncontrollable.     

Personalized risk messaging can reduce climate concerns

One potential barrier to climate policy action is that individuals view climate change as a problem for people in other parts of the world or for future generations. As some scholars argue, risk messaging strategies that make climate change personally relevant may help overcome this barrier. In this article, we report a large-n survey experiment on San Francisco Bay Area residents to investigate how providing spatially-resolved risk information to individuals shapes their climate risk perceptions in the context of sea-level rise. Our results suggest that personalized risk messaging can sometimes reduce concern about sea-level rise. These experimental effects are limited to respondents who believe that climate change is happening. Further, we do not find an effect of providing local risk messages on an individual's willingness to pay for regional climate adaptation measures. Our results emphasize that local messaging strategies around sea-level rise risks may not have the clear impacts that some advocates and scholars presume.     

Climate change or nuclear power—No thanks! A quantitative study of public perceptions and risk framing in Britain

The UK is witnessing a new line in political debate around new nuclear energy generation as one potential feature of future energy policy, specifically for contributing to climate change mitigation alongside energy security. Little is known about how ordinary citizens might be responding to this reframing. This paper reports the results from a major British survey (n=1491) undertaken in the autumn of 2005. The consistent message is that while higher proportions of the British public are prepared to accept nuclear power if they believe it contributes to climate change mitigation, this is a highly conditional view, with very few actively preferring this over renewable sources given the choice. People see both climate change and nuclear power as problematic in terms of risks and express only a ‘reluctant acceptance’ of nuclear power as a ‘solution’ to climate change. The combined data from this survey can also be interpreted as an indication of the complexity surrounding beliefs about energy futures and the difficulty of undertaking simplistic risk–risk tradeoffs within any single framing of the issues; such as nuclear energy versus climate change. The results also indicate that it would be unwise, in the UK as elsewhere, to simplistically assume that there exists any single or stable public ‘opinion’ on such complex matters. We conclude with a discussion of the role and implications of the survey evidence for the policy process.