交城断裂带北段最大潜在地震发震概率评估1

基于太原市目标区交城断裂带的定量研究,特别是对活动断裂上的古地震资料进行的系统、详细的分析与总结,建立了反映该断裂地震地质特点和运动学属性的复发模式和概率模型.引入震级-地表破裂长度、震级-震源破裂长度、震级-断层破裂面积以及震级-地震矩的经验关系进行震级估计,最后进行综合评估以确定交城断裂带北段潜在地震的最大震级.复发模式的建立兼顾了泊松和准周期两种模式,利用专家意见法组合相应的Poisson模型和BPT模型,计算活动断裂最大潜在地震的复发概率.结果表明,交城断裂带北段潜在地震最大震级为Ms7.2级,而未来50a、100a、200a发生Ms7.2级地震的概率分别为2.1％、4.0％和7.9％.     

Statistical Distributions of Hydraulic Conductivity from Reliability Analysis Data

This paper describes a first-order reliability-based analysis to identify the best-fit probability distributions for hydraulic conductivity. The analysis involved the use of existing hydraulic conductivity model developed from laboratory data and applied to lateritic soils, considering variations in soil parameters. Plots of reliability indices versus coefficients of variation were first made for hydraulic conductivity as well as for initial degree of saturation, plasticity index and clay content, considering three compactive efforts and log-normally distributed hydraulic conductivity. The traditional two-parameter log-normal distribution was compared to four alternative distributions: normal, gamma, Gumbel (extreme value type I-EVT-I) and Weibull (extreme value type III-EVT-III). The analysis showed that the Weibull and normal are the best-fit probability distributions for the hydraulic conductivity based reliability data. Hydraulic conductivities predicted from reliability analysis were used to demonstrate the possibility of applying the results obtained in this research by practising engineers. Experimentally-determined hydraulic conductivities were shown to be in good agreement with predicted values.     

基于概率加权估计的中国极端气温时空分布模拟试验

引入一种计算简便、有效性高,并可代替极大似然法的优良参数估计方法--概率加权法(PWM),利用Gumbel分布对中国极端气温时空变化特征作"当前"与"未来"气候的模拟试验.结果表明,这种方法具有较高的拟合优度.利用适应性较强的Weibull分布拟合中国逐日高(低)气温的原始分布,在此基础上,借助于蒙特卡洛随机模拟产生未来平均气候情景下的极端高(低)气温统计概率特征.模拟试验表明,在未来气候条件下,若平均气温升高1.0℃,中国各大区域极端高(低)气温的概率有一定的变动规律可寻.     

Nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis of buried pipeline systems

In this paper, a nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis program for buried pipeline systems is developed on the basis of a probability density evolution method (PDEM). A finite element model of buried pipeline systems subjected to seismic wave propagation is established. The pipelines in this model are simulated by 2D beam elements. The soil surrounding the pipelines is simulated by nonlinear distributed springs and linear distributed springs along the axial and horizontal directions, respectively. The joints between the segmented pipes are simulated by nonlinear concentrated springs. Thereafter, by considering the basic random variables of ground motion and soil, the PDEM is employed to capture the stochastic seismic responses of pipeline systems. Meanwhile, a physically based method is employed to simulate the random ground motion field for the area where the pipeline systems are located. Finally, a numerical example is investigated to validate the proposed program.     

Dry spells assessment with reference to the maize crop in the Luvuvhu River catchment of South Africa

Agricultural productivity in South Africa is negatively affected by drought as a result of frequent periodic dry spells and increasing crop water demands resulting in poor crop development and low yields. Thus, we embarked on this study which aims at investigating dry spell occurrences in relation to growing season of maize in the Luvuvhu River Catchment. Daily rainfall data (1945–2014) from 12 stations which represent the catchment fairly well was utilized in this study. Three consecutive planting dates were staggered based on three consecutive onsets of the rainy season. Dry spells were categorized into three groups: short, medium and long dry spells. The data was then subjected to theoretical distribution fitting using the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit test; and probabilities of occurrence were computed using a probabilistic model that best fits the data. Trend analysis was performed on the frequency of dry spells per growing period using the non-parametric Spearman's rank correlation test. Out results indicated high probabilities (≥80%) of short dry spells at all the stations irrespective of the timing of planting. Further analysis revealed that a risk of yield reduction with planting following the first onset of rains was higher than that with planting following the second and third onsets. In order to minimize this risk, farmers can be advised to plant between mid-November to mid-December. Trend analysis indicated no trend for all the various dry spell lengths except for Thohoyandou with a decreasing trend and Sigonde with a weak increasing trend in long dry spells. Such findings can be used to describe drought conditions for improvement of agricultural productivity and food security, in a given area.     

东川播卡金矿品位统计学特征及与矿化的关系

东川播卡金矿,位于金沙江与小江夹持的三角成矿带上,为昆阳群中迄今发现的唯一独立大型金矿。矿区出露中元古界昆阳群浅变质岩系。结合近年来勘探成果,收集矿石品位进行统计学研究,探讨品位与矿化关系。     

A note of caution when interpreting parameters of the distribution of excesses

In climatology and hydrology, univariate Extreme Value Theory has become a powerful tool to model the distribution of extreme events. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is routinely applied to model excesses in space or time by letting the two GPD parameters depend on appropriate covariates. Two possible pitfalls of this strategy are the modeling and the interpretation of the scale and shape GPD parameters estimates which are often and incorrectly viewed as independent variables. In this note we first recall a statistical technique that makes the GPD estimates less correlated within a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation approach. In a second step we propose novel reparametrizations for two method-of-moments particularly popular in hydrology: the Probability Weighted Moment (PWM) method and its generalized version (GPWM). Finally these three inference methods (ML, PWM and GPWM) are compared and discussed with respect to the issue of correlations.     

地震作用下骆驼城土遗址的安全性评价

以甘肃高台地区国家级重点文物保护单位骆驼城土遗址为研究对象,对其依次采用实地勘察、室内土工试验、统计分析、数值模拟四种手段进行了研究。将可靠度理论引入有限元动力分析中,利用APDL语言编制程序,使用蒙特卡洛法进行一千次的抽样数值模拟后进行抗震概率性分析。从而实现了土遗址抗震安全性评价的一种新方法和手段。计算结果对于骆驼城土遗址抗震防护及加固具有重要的参考价值,同时也为类似土遗址的防灾减灾工作提供一定依据。     

地震分布非均匀性指标Kcv值及其在亚洲大地震预测中的应用研究

理论研究和实际预测表明地震空间分布非均匀性指标Cv值是一种有效的预测指标.但目前使用的Cv值在同一信度水平下,其置信区间大小与空间分布的事件样本数大小有关,不便于结果的分析比较.本文在Cv值基础上定义了一个新的预测指标Kcv,并基于强震时空概率增益预测模型及其单项预测方法预测效能检验的方法,依据亚洲地震重点研究区近20...