应用地震时间间隔分布特征进行地震活动趋势判断

本文对吉林省伊通－舒兰断裂带发生的地震，我国南北地震带南段安宁河－滇东地震带的中强地震发震时间间进行统计分析，把每两个发震时间相减得到地震的时间间隔Ｘｉ序列，由Ｘｉ序列求出概率密度函数ｆ（ｘ）或其分布函数Ｆ（ｘ）。     

K_(cv)值在河北及邻区地震预测中的应用研究

地震空间分布非均匀性指标Cv值作为一种有效的预测指标近几年来得到了广泛应用。然而受空间分布的事件样本数大小的影响,Cv值会有所改变。本文采用Cv值标准化后的Kcv值,统计了河北及邻区的地震事件空间非均匀性分布,并与地震时空概率增益综合预测模型相结合,进行研究区地震预测。依据河北及邻区40多年的地震观测资料进行了Kcv值扫描和震例统计,研究了该方法应用于河北地区的预测效能及最优时间尺度。对研究区2008—2012年M5及以上地震的概率增益、地震发生概率预测与实际地震发生情况的回溯性检验结果表明,此方法应用于河北地区地震发生概率的预测是可行的。依据上述方法,对2013—2017年河北及邻区M5及以上地震发生的概率增益和地震发生概率进行了预测。     

一次地震预报有效性的"概率统计"评价法--中短期前兆及预报效能评价之二

该提出了评价一次地震预报有效性的概率统计法(套圈模型)。设预报4维空间中一个有限封闭的范围,实际地震落人其范围内即为“报准”,否则为“未报准”。在报准的情况下,预报区间的大小就反映预报水平的高低。这可用预报区域内地震发生的自然概率P来衡量。与“打靶模型”相似,“套圈模型”评价上限是准理想预报尺度,下限是可容忍误差尺度。根据不同的尺度,计算相应的概率。以相应概率对数值之差为比例计算评价值。实际算例表明,此方法与距准误差评价结果相当吻合。     

利用概率密度分布提取流体观测资料中的高频异常信息——以2008年汶川8.0级地震为例

随着地下流体观测技术的提高,尤其是地下流体观测数字化改造以后,观测资料的采样频率明显提高,这些高频采样的观测资料中蕴含着丰富的构造信息,如何从分钟值甚至更高频率采样的观测资料中提取有用的异常信息,是目前从事地震地下流体资料分析人员最为关注的科学问题之一.本文引入概率密度分布法,分析了2008年汶川8.0级地震前南北地震带及其附近区域72个测点的数字化水位和水温分钟值采样高频观测资料,结果显示:汶川8.0级地震前有16个测点水位和14个测点水温出现高频异常信息,出现高频信息异常的观测点多集中在滇西南构造带,异常出现的时间呈现出由南向北推移的特征.据此认为概率密度分布法在流体资料的高频异常信息提取方面具有一定的可靠性与适用性,可为数字化高频观测资料异常提取提供借鉴.     

A cross entropy method for flood frequency analysis

The cross-entropy method with fractile constraints has been developed to estimate a random variable when the data are a set of independent observations of the variable. The method can claim several advantages over existing methods. It uses a reference distribution like the prior distribution in Bayesian analysis and likewise generates a posterior distribution.The method is of interest, in particular, because it satisfies two fundamental requirements for selfconsistency in the analysis of a probabilistic system based on data: a principle of invariance and a principle of data monotonicity.The method is applied to flood analysis. Robustness of the minimum cross-entropy method is compared with other methods: the methods of moments and the maximum likehood.     

矢量GIS平面线状实体误差模型概率特征

从概率论的角度看,矢量GIS平面线状实体落入其相应误差模型内的概率值是决定线状实体误差模型规模的依据。根据等概率密度误差模型建模机理、概率论与数理统计以及数值分析,文献[1]、[3]、[4]研究了矢量GIS平面线状实体落入其相应等概率密度误差模型内的概率算法,在此基础上,文中对概率特征进行了总结和分析,得出了"线状实体落入其相应等概率密度误差模型内的概率不仅与线状实体上点位精度最低的特征点"标准误差椭圆缩放系数"有关,而且还随特征点精度的变化而变化"的结论。实例计算与分析验证了该结论的正确性。     

Tropical Stratospheric Circulation and Monsoon Rainfall

Interannual variability of both SW monsoon (June-September) and NE monsoon (October-December) rainfall over subdivisions of Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Tamil Nadu have been examined in relation to monthly zonal wind anomaly for 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa at Balboa (9°N, 80°W) for the 29 year period (1958-1986). Correlations of zonal wind anomalies to SW monsoon rainfall (r = 0.57, significant at 1% level) is highest with the longer lead time (August of the previous year) at 10 hPa level suggesting some predictive value for Coastal Andhra Pradesh. The probabilities estimated from the contingency table reveal non-occurrence of flood during easterly wind anomalies and near non-occurrence of drought during westerly anomalies for August of the previous year at 10 hPa which provides information for forecasting of performance of SW monsoon over Coastal Andhra Pradesh. However, NE monsoon has a weak relationship with zonal wind anomalies of 10 hPa, 30 hPa and 50 hPa for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Raya     

2013年芦山MS7.0地震震源区背景噪声源特征分析

应用背景噪声互相关信息研究强震前后地下介质波速变化时,噪声源的方位性特征会影响互相关函数形态,从而对波速变化有效估计造成影响。本文使用2013年芦山M_S7.0地震震源区附近的天全台(TQU)2013年全年的连续波形记录,计算其垂直分量的噪声功率谱概率密度函数,分析背景噪声源能量强度特征;并通过频域极化法计算噪声源极化率以及极化方位角的概率密度函数,研究噪声源的极性特征。结果表明,研究区小于0.05Hz的长周期噪声源种类较多,且具有噪声能量强度和极化程度较高、极化方位性明显的特点;第一类地脉动(0.05～0.1Hz)极化方位角为30°和210°,噪声能量较低;第二类地脉动(0.1～0.5Hz)极化方位角分布在150°～210°,噪声能量较高,且其能量强度具有季节性变化特征;大于1Hz的高频噪声主要来自人类活动,噪声能量水平受人类活动强弱影响明显。因此,即使在远离海洋的大陆地区,在利用背景噪声监测局部波速变化时,应注意噪声强度以及噪声源方向性变化的影响。     

降雨滑坡预警的概率分析方法

滑坡启动的降雨临界值是滑坡预警的关键,由于研究区资料数据有限,关键值难以确定,降雨滑坡预警效果受影响。所以应该对预警结果进行概率分析。本文利用作者在已开发的降雨滑坡预警系统,提出采用降雨滑坡预警概率分析方法进行预警。通过对滑坡与雨量相关性、降雨滑坡启动值等对滑坡预警的时间概率、空间概率及预警概率进行分析,计算危险区内已发生滑坡频率和降雨滑坡发生频率,得到降雨滑坡预警概率使得预警系统更加可靠。并以沐川县为例对模型进行了算例检验,为更科学的对降雨滑坡进行预警提供方法借鉴。     

Seismic reliability analysis of earth slopes under short term stability conditions

Different models were developed for evaluating the probabilistic three-dimensional (3-D) stability analysis of earth slopes and embankments under earthquake loading. The 3-D slope stability model assumed is that of a simple cylindrical failure surface. The probabilistic models evaluate the probability of failure under seismic loading considering the randomness of earthquake occurrence, and earthquake induced acceleration and uncertainties stemming from the discrepancies between laboratory-measured and in-situ values of shear strength parameters. The models also takes into consideration the spatial variabilities and correlations of soil properties. The probabilistic analysis and design approach is capable of obtaining the 2-D and 3-D static and dynamic safety factors, the probability of slope failure, the earthquake induced acceleration coefficient, the yield acceleration coefficient, the earthquake induced displacement, and the probability of allowable displacement exceedance taking into account the local site effect. The approach is applied to a well known landslide case: Congress Street Landslide in Chicago. A sensitivity analysis was conducted on the different parameters involved in the models by applying those models to the Congress Street landslide considering different levels of seismic hazard. Also, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the sensitivity of computed results to input parameters of undrained shear strength, and corrective factors. A comparison was made between the different models of failure. The parametric study revealed that the hypocentral distance and earthquake magnitude have major influence on the earthquake induced displacement, probability of failure and dynamic 2-D and 3-D safety factors.