甘肃省河西地区气候对流量影响的初步分析

利用单相关、典型相关、响应函数、逐步回归方法,从不同角度分析了甘肃河西地区气候对河流年径流总量的影响,主要结果表明;（１）在河西地区,水文年降水量是影响流量变化的主要导因子,其作用是全区性的,它决定流量场的空间分布特征;而５￣９月平均温度是辅助性因子,通过影响高山冰雪融化对流量起培加作用,其影响主要表现在西部的疏勒河。（２）河西地区年径流量对当年１,４￣５月及７￣８月的降水具有显著的影响,其中对４     

不同物质(土质、岩质)的岩石滑坡体高密度电法异常特征区别

应用物探方法对滑坡进行勘查,已成为一种经济、快捷、有效的手段,文章首先从认识两类典型滑坡(Ⅰ类—土质滑坡、Ⅱ—类岩质滑坡)的滑坡结构开始,从物性差异角度分析了滑体、滑面和滑床的电性特征,说明了物探方法在滑坡勘查中的有效性;通过在某已知滑坡地质体上采用高密度电法不同装置、不同极距进行测试,得出滑坡勘查中电性响应特征的一般规律,总结了高密度电法在滑坡勘查中的技术要点和“滑面”解释原则;最后对贵州地区典型的2处滑坡(土质、岩质滑坡)勘查成果进行实例分析,结果显示:两类物质(土质、岩质)的岩石滑坡地质体电性响应特征具有相同规律,均有明显的三层电性结构层(高-低-高阻)分别对应滑体、滑面、滑床,但土质滑坡地质体的软弱夹层反映在电性剖面特征上的“体积效应”更显著。     

黄土微观参数指标与阻尼比关联度研究

对岷县地震台、庆阳黄土塬2~12m深度土层的粉土、粉质黏土样品,利用室内动三轴试验和扫描电镜试验,测定阻尼比和微观结构特征,研究了粉土、粉质黏土的阻尼比随深度的变化及应力应变关系,采用灰色关联度方法,分析了黄土竖向（沉积方向）和横向（垂直于沉积方向）的微观结构参数对阻尼比影响的主次关系及其权重。研究结果表明:小应变下,粉土和粉质黏土阻尼比随着深度的增加而减小;粉土和粉质黏土的微观参数与阻尼比有一定的关联性,粉土竖向的微观参数对阻尼比的影响较为敏感;粉质黏土横向的微观参数对阻尼比的影响更加敏感;影响权重方面,粉质黏土的平均形状系数影响权重最大,对阻尼比的影响最大;粉土的平均形状系数、分形维数和概率熵影响权重最大,对阻尼比影响最敏感。平均面积无论在关联度还是影响权重方面对阻尼比影响最小,该结论粉土与粉质黏土保持一致。     

The mid- to late Holocene paleoceanographic changes in the northern North Atlantic

A high-resolution diatom record from core MD99-2275 shows a general paleoceanographic change in the northern North Atlantic since 5000 cal. a B.P. by Principle Component Analysis. Sea surface temperature (SST) increased gradually during 5000 and 3000 cal. a B.P. on the North Icelandic shelf as a result of increasing influence of warm Atlantic water mass from the Irminger Current. It apparently started to decrease since 3000 cal. a B.P. due to the weakening influence of warm water and enhanced influence of the Polar and Arctic water masses from the East Greenland Current and the East Icelandic Current. Abrupt decreases in SST and intrusions of Polar and Arctic water superimposed on the late Holocene cooling trend during 3000-2600, 1300-1000 and 600-200 cal. a B.P.. The paleoceanographic record revealed from core MD99-2275 corresponds well with δ¹⁸O record from the GISP2 and is generally consistent with other SST records based on diatom on the North Icelandic shelf. __________ Translated from Marine Science Bulletin, 2008, 27(5) [译自:海洋通报]     

Evaluating cut slope failure by numerical analysis—a case study

Slope failure is very common phenomenon in hilly regions, especially in young techno active mountainous like Himalayas. It is hazardous because of the accompanying progressive movement of the slope-forming material. In order to minimize the landslide effects, slope failure analysis and stabilization requires in depth understanding of the process that governs the behavior of the slope. The present article mainly deals with the analysis of the stability of road cut slopes of Rudraprayag Area, Uttarakhand, India. The area experiences local as well as regional slides every year. Extensive field study was carried out along the road cut slopes. Laboratory experiments were conducted to determine the various Physio-mechanical properties of rock mass. These properties have been used as input parameters for the numerical simulation of slope using FLAC3D (Fast Lagrangian Analysis of Continua) including geological discontinuities. The computed deformations and the stress distribution along the failure surface are compared with the field observations. The study indicates that the overall slope is unstable except at the location E where slope is critically stable. The effects of instability have been thoroughly considered and remedial measures have been recommended.     

抗震设防与工程地震的关系及若干原则方法问题

本文回顾了中国东南沿海滨海地带几例历史大地震造成的巨大灾害;讨论了由定数法所确定的地震烈度折算成抗震设计参数的关系,以及由概率法取得的地震动参数直接作为抗震设防依据的重要性;简述了地震小区划方法;指出开展滨岸地带港口城市,开发区和重大工程场地的地震小区划工作对减轻地震灾害的深远意义。     

A feasibility assessment of the application of the Polluter-Pays Principle to ship-source pollution in Hong Kong

This article aims to assess the feasibility of applying the Polluter-Pays Principle (PPP) to its fullest measure in counteracting ship-source pollution in Hong Kong (HK). Ship-source pollution is of chief concern for HK׳s marine environmental protection. A comprehensive legal and policy framework has already been established to control and remedy ship-source pollution; nevertheless, the costs of implementing measures under this framework are largely undertaken by the government or through the public avenue, leading to an inconsistency with PPP, which is a principle rooted in HK environmental policy. Through an intensive literature review and questionnaire survey, the results of this study have revealed that the adequacy and/or effectiveness of the existing legal and policy framework for controlling and remedying ship-source pollution are questionable. In addition, despite varied understandings of PPP, the industry also supports the adoption of innovative legal and policy measures to apply PPP to its fullest measure in order to better control and remedy ship-source pollution. These findings provide useful evidence, and enable meaningful reflection on the existing legal and policy framework covering ship-source pollution.     

"地震可预测性国际合作研究"——1.0阶段工作理念及成果

20世纪90年代由世界多个国家的地震学家围绕“地震可否预测”问题进行国际讨论后, 人们开始思考适用于地震预测研究的规则应该有哪些, 尤其是地震学家针对地震预测研究中所采取的途径和工作思路开始发生了变化。 2007年开始的“区域地震似然模型”(Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, RELM)工作组和由此进一步而来的“地震可预测性国际合作研究”(Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability, CSEP)计划开始之后, 一大批地震预测模型和与评估其预测效能有关的统计检验方法加入进来, 在设立相同的预测规则和使用统一的数据来源下, 通过全球设立不同测试中心的方式, 共同参与到对地震可预测性问题的系统研究中来。 当前, CSEP计划已由开始的1.0阶段发展至2.0阶段, 为使读者了解与这几项国际合作研究相关的工作主旨和发展历程, 本文总结了与CSEP工作1.0阶段相关的工作理念和工作成果以及存在的问题, 以期为下一步工作的开展提供参考。     

MORPHOLOGIC EQUATIONS BASED ON THE PRINCIPLE OF MAXIMUM ENTROPY

ＭＯＲＰＨＯＬＯＧＩＣＥＱＵＡＴＩＯＮＳＢＡＳＥＤＯＮＴＨＥＰＲＩＮＣＩＰＬＥＯＦＭＡＸＩＭＵＭＥＮＴＲＯＰＹＤＥＮＧＺｈｉｑｉａｎｇ；ＺＨＡＮＧＫａｉｑｕａｎＡｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ｔｈｅｐｒｉｎｃｉｐｌｅｏｆｍａｘｉｍｕｍｅｎｔｒｏｐｙｉｓｕｓｅｄｔｏ...     

抗差泛岭估计

本文应用现代估差估计理论,提出了一个抗差有偏估计类（抗差泛岭估计类）并且建立了抗差泛岭估计的计算方法。理论分析和模拟计算表明,抗差泛岭估计具有既可克服法矩阵病态性影响又可抵抗粗差干扰的良好性质。