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61.
介绍了投影寻踪自回归(PPAR(K))的基本思想及其算法。用PPAR(K)和均生函数(MGF)两种方法对泸州市和北碚市降水量的时间序列进行了建模预测。结果表明PPAR(K)模型具有较高的稳定性和预测精度。 相似文献
62.
在文献调查和现场调查的基础上,对鲁南地震重点监视防御区内城市房屋建筑的抗震能力做了分析,给出了抗震救灾重要房屋的单体预测结果、现有房屋的群体预测结果,并对房屋破坏造成的直接经济损失、人员伤亡进行了预测。文中指出了现有房屋的抗震薄弱环节,为该地区采取防震减灾对策提供了依据。 相似文献
63.
某些测震学指标与地震相关性研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
通过对10项测震学指示宾10a的大范围时空扫描得出的有震和无震“预报”进行了与5.0级以上的地震的相关性研究,结果证明这10项指标当显性水平较低时,均可通过统计检验,表明是有效的提取异常指标。作还依统计检验结果对10项测震学指标与地震相关性好坏进行了排序,并通过分析得到各指标今后优化方向. 相似文献
64.
65.
A method was developed to obtain from a signal station the spatial and temporal distribution ofV
p
/V
s
ratios before earthquakes of magnitude>6. It was shown thatV
p
/V
s
values strongly depend upon the relative positions of the stations, the future large earthquake and the foci of the smaller earthquakes used forV
p
/V
s
determination. The appearance of a zone of anomalousV
p
/V
s
values with linear dimensions of the order of 100 km was noted at least 4 years before a deep earthquake of magnitude 7. Similar size anomalous zones were detected one year before some magnitude 6 earthquakes.
V
p
/V
s
values decreased by a small but distinct amount during this time. Additionally, local short term minima inV
p
/V
s
ratios were observed some months before the major event. The epicenters of the large earthquakes were located within the 100 km size zone where the gradients of theV
p
/V
s
field were largest. 相似文献
66.
J. F. Palacián 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2007,98(4):219-249
We study the dynamics of a satellite (artificial or natural) orbiting an Earth-like planet at low altitude from an analytical
point of view. The perturbation considered takes into account the gravity attraction of the planet and in particular it is
caused by its inhomogeneous potential. We begin by truncating the equations of motion at second order, that is, incorporating
the zonal and the tesseral harmonics up to order two. The system is formulated as an autonomous Hamiltonian and has three
degrees of freedom. After three successive Lie transformations, the system is normalised with respect to two angular co-ordinates
up to order five in a suitable small parameter given by the quotient between the angular velocity of the planet and the mean
motion of the satellite. Our treatment is free of power expansions of the eccentricity and of truncated Fourier series in
the anomalies. Once these transformations are performed, the truncated Hamiltonian defines a system of one degree of freedom
which is rewritten as a function of two variables which generate a phase space which takes into account all of the symmetries
of the problem. Next an analysis of the system is achieved obtaining up to six relative equilibria and three types of bifurcations.
The connection with the original system is established concluding the existence of various families of invariant 3-tori of
it, as well as quasiperiodic and periodic trajectories. This is achieved by using KAM theory techniques. 相似文献
67.
Interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs) are one of the main sources of large non-recurrent geomagnetic storms. With the aid of
a force-free flux rope model, the dependence of the intensity of geomagnetic activity (indicated by Dst index) on the axial orientation (denoted by θ and φ in GSE coordinates) of the magnetic cloud is analyzed theoretically. The distribution of the Dst values in the (θ, φ) plane is calculated by changing the axial orientation for various cases. It is concluded that (i) geomagnetic storms tend
to occur in the region of θ<0°, especially in the region of θ≲−45°, where larger geomagnetic activity could be created; (ii) the intensity of geomagnetic activity varies more strongly
with θ than with φ; (iii) when the parameters B
0 (the magnetic field strength at the flux rope axis), R
0 (the radius of the flux rope), or V (the bulk speed) increase, or |D| (the shortest distance between the flux rope axis and the x-axis in GSE coordinates) decreases, a flux rope not only can increase the intensity of geomagnetic activity, but also is
more likely to create a storm, however the variation of n (the density) only has a little effect on the intensity; (iv) the most efficient orientation (MEO) in which a flux rope can
cause the largest geomagnetic activity appears at φ∼0° or ∼ 180°, and some value of θ which depends mainly on D; (v) the minimum Dst value that could be caused by a flux rope is the most sensitive to changes in B
0 and V of the flux rope, and for a stronger and/or faster MC, a wider range of orientations will be geoeffective. Further, through
analyzing 20 MC-caused moderate to large geomagnetic storms during 1998 – 2003, a long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic
storms on the basis of the flux rope model is proposed and assessed. The comparison between the theoretical results and the
observations shows that there is a close linear correlation between the estimated and observed minimum Dst values. This suggests that using the ideal flux rope to predict practical MC-caused geomagnetic storms is applicable. The
possibility of the long-term prediction of MC-caused geomagnetic storms is discussed briefly. 相似文献
68.
论河南“75.8”特大暴雨的研究:回顾与评述 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
“75.8”河南特大暴雨的发生已经过去40年了,它在人们的记忆中留下深刻的印象。这场暴雨在1975年8月5—7日3 d之内在河南南部的局部地区降下了1605 mm的总雨量,1、3、6、12 h雨量均破中国降水的历史记录。由于水库垮坝,洪水夺走了该区约2万6千人的生命,经济损失巨大。在这40年间,中国的暴雨研究和预报都取得了重大的进展。其中一个重要原因是中国的气象和水文部门从这场空前强烈的大暴雨和大洪水事件中吸取了宝贵的经验教训,多年来,以这场超级大暴雨洪水为借鉴,不断促进和鼓励中国气象学家向暴雨研究和预报发展的更高目标前进。有感于此,回顾和评述了当年老一辈科学家在比较艰苦的条件下所进行的这次大暴雨的研究活动,以及所获得的卓越科学成果。即使从今天来看,其中不少成果也具有创新性的意义,在中国暴雨研究的发展史上,占有十分重要甚至里程碑式的地位。文中重点对其中的关键科学问题进行了评述,包括:(1)“75.8”特大暴雨的雨情和极值;(2)“75.8”特大暴雨发生的原因;(3)“75.8”特大暴雨的动力诊断;(4)暴雨中尺度分析;(5)地形对暴雨的增幅作用。希望以此纪念河南“75.8”特大暴雨发生40周年,并表达对参与此次研究活动的老一辈科学家深深的怀念和敬意。 相似文献
69.
The debate concerning the viability of f(R)-gravity as a natural extension of General Relativity could be realistically addressed by using results coming from binary pulsars like PSR 1913 + 16. To this end, we develop a quadrupolar approach to the gravitational radiation for a class of analytic f(R)-models. We show that experimental results are compatible with a consistent range of f(R)-models. This means that f(R)-gravity is not ruled out by the observations and gravitational radiation (in strong field regime) could be a test-bed for such theories. 相似文献
70.
Owing to the existence of the flow field boundary, the shock wave load near the boundary is different from the freefield shock wave load. In the present paper, the hull plate load subjected to underwater shock wave is investigated based onwave motion theories; in addition, the experimental study of the hull plate load is carried out. According to the theoreticalanalysis of the hull plate pressure, we find that the hull plate pressure oscillates repeatedly and decays rapidly with timepassing, the maximum hull plate pressure is 2/(1+n) times the maximum free field pressure, where n is the ratio ofimpedance, and the impulse is much smaller than the free field impulse. Compared with the experimental study, thetheoretical results agree well with the experimental data. 相似文献