Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.     

Détermination expérimentale des paramètres équivalents d'un milieu poreux hétérogène en écoulements uniforme ou radial

Tracer tests are carried out in a heterogeneous porous medium that has a 3D correlated random distribution of the permeabilities. The fitting of numerical models provides the values of equivalent permeability and macrodispersivity characterizing a 2D homogeneous horizontal medium. Different flow configurations are studied: uniform, radial and pump and treat (doublet). The fitted parameter sets are independent of the flow type, except for the doublet. They are greater than the values predicted by stochastic theories, due to the small number of correlation lengths explored by the tracer and the limited extension of the experimental set-up. To cite this article: C. Danquigny, P. Ackerer, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

Possible sources of forecast errors generated by the global/regional assimilation and prediction system for landfalling tropical cyclones. Part I: Initial uncertainties

This paper investigates the possible sources of errors associated with tropical cyclone (TC) tracks forecasted using the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES). The GRAPES forecasts were made for 16 landfalling TCs in the western North Pacific basin during the 2008 and 2009 seasons, with a forecast length of 72 hours, and using the default initial conditions (“initials”, hereafter), which are from the NCEP-FNL dataset, as well as ECMWF initials. The forecasts are compared with ECMWF forecasts. The results show that in most TCs, the GRAPES forecasts are improved when using the ECMWF initials compared with the default initials. Compared with the ECMWF initials, the default initials produce lower intensity TCs and a lower intensity subtropical high, but a higher intensity South Asia high and monsoon trough, as well as a higher temperature but lower specific humidity at the TC center. Replacement of the geopotential height and wind fields with the ECMWF initials in and around the TC center at the initial time was found to be the most efficient way to improve the forecasts. In addition, TCs that showed the greatest improvement in forecast accuracy usually had the largest initial uncertainties in TC intensity and were usually in the intensifying phase. The results demonstrate the importance of the initial intensity for TC track forecasts made using GRAPES, and indicate the model is better in describing the intensifying phase than the decaying phase of TCs. Finally, the limit of the improvement indicates that the model error associated with GRAPES forecasts may be the main cause of poor forecasts of landfalling TCs. Thus, further examinations of the model errors are required.     

MJO prediction skill,predictability, and teleconnection impacts in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model

This study evaluates performance of Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction in the Beijing Climate Center Atmospheric General Circulation Model (BCC_AGCM2.2). By using the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) indices, it is shown that the MJO prediction skill of BCC_AGCM2.2 extends to about 16–17 days before the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient drops to 0.5 and the root-mean-square error increases to the level of the climatological prediction. The prediction skill showed a seasonal dependence, with the highest skill occurring in boreal autumn, and a phase dependence with higher skill for predictions initiated from phases 2–4. The results of the MJO predictability analysis showed that the upper bounds of the prediction skill can be extended to 26 days by using a single-member estimate, and to 42 days by using the ensemble-mean estimate, which also exhibited an initial amplitude and phase dependence. The observed relationship between the MJO and the North Atlantic Oscillation was accurately reproduced by BCC_AGCM2.2 for most initial phases of the MJO, accompanied with the Rossby wave trains in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics driven by MJO convection forcing. Overall, BCC_AGCM2.2 displayed a significant ability to predict the MJO and its teleconnections without interacting with the ocean, which provided a useful tool for fully extracting the predictability source of subseasonal prediction.     

重庆走马岭岩溶隧道涌水量初步研究

隧道涌水问题普遍存在,从隧道的施工到竣工运行都受其影响,特别是在南方岩溶地区尤为严重。根据勘察资料,走马岭隧道穿越可溶岩段(含断层破碎带)长1525m,占隧道总长的62%,极易发生隧道涌水事故。本文结合已开挖段隧道涌水的实时监测数据及前期工程勘察资料,对隧道涌水做出初步预测评价,为以后的施工提供依据。     

Wave run-up on bermed coastal structures

Reliable estimation of wave run-up is required for the effective and efficient design of coastal structures when flooding or wave overtopping volumes are an important consideration in the design process. In this study, a unified formula for the wave run-up on bermed structures has been developed using collected and existing data. As data on berm breakwaters was highly limited, physical model tests were conducted and the run-up was measured. Conventional governing parameters and influencing factors were then used to predict the dimensionless run-up level with 2% exceedance probability. The developed formula includes the effect of water depth which is required in understanding the influence of sea level rise and consequent changes of wave height to water depth ratio on the future hydraulic performance of the structures. The accuracy measures such as RMSE and Bias indicated that the developed formula is more accurate than the existing formulas. Additionally, the new formula was validated using field measurements and its superiority was observed when compared to the existing prediction formulas. Finally, the new design formula incorporating the partial safety factor was introduced as a design tool for engineers.     

A Nonlinear Representation of Model Uncertainty in a Convective-Scale Ensemble Prediction System

How to accurately address model uncertainties with consideration of the rapid nonlinear error growth characteristics in a convection-allowing system is a crucial issue for performing convection-scale ensemble forecasts. In this study, a new nonlinear model perturbation technique for convective-scale ensemble forecasts is developed to consider a nonlinear representation of model errors in the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System(GRAPES)Convection-Allowing Ensemble Predi...     

未来地震震级的定量计算

将某一地震带在强震前某一时期内发生的地震,按其面波震级大小自大到小排列,并以N=2、3、4、……来累计频度,采用公式logN=a-bM计算a、b,从而计算出第一个地震的震级M_1,这就是未来可能发生地震的震级。通过对川滇地区和华北地区的九次近期强震进行计算,结果表明,在震级测定误差范围(±0.3级)内,上述的M和logN之间具有很好的线性关系,这就为地震预报和地震区划中定量计算未来地震震级提出了一个新的方法。     

新疆南天山部分地区尾波衰减特征

分析1988年库尔勒和阳霞台地震尾波资料发现,地方震尾波衰减系数α值、尾波持续时间比τ值,在中强震前确有异常显示。     

Certainty factors of earthquake precursory anomaly evidences CF(E)

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