源外斜坡区有利于油气运聚的断砂配置分布区预测方法

为了研究含油气盆地源外斜坡区油气分布规律,在源外斜坡区断砂配置运聚机制及有利分布区研究的基础上,通过砂体连通分布区和砂体所在地层顶面砂体输导油气汇聚区,确定油气成藏期砂体输导油气分布区;通过断裂填充物泥质含量与断裂侧向封闭所需的最小填充物泥质含量的相对大小,确定油气成藏期河道砂体上倾方向断裂侧向封闭部位,二者叠合建立了一套源外斜坡区有利于油气运聚的断砂配置分布区预测方法,并将其应用于渤海湾盆地歧口凹陷有利于油气运聚的扣村断裂与沙一下亚段砂体配置分布区的预测中。结果表明：有利于油气运聚的扣村断裂与沙一下亚段砂体配置分布区主要分布在其东部,有利于西北歧南次凹沙三段源岩生成油气在扣村断裂附近沙一下亚段内聚集成藏,与目前扣村断裂附近沙一下亚段已发现油气主要分布在其东部相吻合,表明该方法用于预测源外斜坡区有利于油气运聚的断砂配置分布区是可行的。     

矿产资源潜力评价省级预测成果汇总中的若干问题研究

对省级矿产资源潜力评价预测成果汇总过程中存在的几个难点进行了总结与研究,包括预测模型建立、矿产地筛选、最小预测区筛选、二级归并区圈定及级别划分、海量图元属性对接、综合预测区圈定及级别划分、二级归并区与综合预测区资源量统计、综合预测区地质描述整理、勘查部署区顺序拟定等,提出了比较合理的解决方案。应用MapGIS二次开发技术编制了自动化处理软件,实现了预测成果的快速汇总。     

山东焦家金成矿带三维地质建模及成矿预测

以山东焦家金成矿带为研究对象,将焦家金矿带的二维地质资料有效整合,应用三维建模软件Surpac,首次建立了该矿区的三维数字矿山模型.以此模型为基础,以地质统计方法为手段,分析成矿规律,建立找矿模型.成矿预测中利用“立方体预测模型”找矿方法、找矿信息量法和证据权法来预测资源量,按照信息值的等级依次圈定了6个成矿靶区.用体积估计法和丰度值估计法2种完全不同的计算方法来预测资源量,2种方法得到的找矿靶区资源量均约为380 t,说明计算的结果具有一致性和稳定性.     

Frequency–volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides

Rainfall-induced landslides constitute a major public concern in Hong Kong. This paper investigates two aspects of critical importance to landslide hazard and risk assessment and management: magnitude–cumulative frequency relationship for landslides, and relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of landslides. The results indicated that landslides with a failure volume of not less than 4 m³ have a cumulative frequency–size distribution with a power-law dependence on volume of failure. Analysis of rainfall/landslides showed that the 12-hour rolling rainfall is most important in predicting the number of landslides. Failure volume dependency in the relationships between rainfall and the number of landslides is also presented. However, with an increase in failure volume of landslides, the most important rainfall variable may vary from rainfall of short duration (12-h rolling rainfall) to that of relatively long duration (24-h rolling rainfall).     

Prediction of ground displacements and velocities from groundwater level changes at the Vallcebre landslide (Eastern Pyrenees, Spain)

In active landslides, the prediction of acceleration of movement is a crucial issue for the design and performance of warning systems. The landslide of Vallcebre in the Eastern Pyreenes, Spain, has been monitored since 1996 and data on rainfall, groundwater levels and ground displacements are measured on a regular basis. Displacements observed in borehole wire extensometers have shown an immediate response of the landslide to rainfall episodes. This rapid response is likely due to the presence of preferential drainage ways. The occurrence of nearly constant rates of displacement in coincidence with steady groundwater levels suggests the presence of viscous forces developed during the movement. An attempt to predict both landslide displacements and velocities was performed at Vallcebre by solving the momentum equation in which a viscous term (Bingham and power law) was added. Results show that, using similar rheological parameters for the entire landslide, computed displacements reproduce quite accurately the displacements observed at three selected wire extensometers. These results indicate that prediction of displacements from groundwater level changes is feasible.     

分形在储层参数井间预测中的应用

现有地震资料难以实现储层薄层的预测，分形理论的引入，可弥补这一不足．以具有连续性和等间距采样点的测井资料为基础，以分形分析理论为手段，结合生产实际进行了研究．根据分形地质统计学中对储层参数的研究，得出其分形理论模型，并通过VisualBasic语言编程，在计算机上实现了某地区4口井储层参数（包括孔隙度、渗透率和泥质含量）的井间预测，其结果达到了预期的效果，说明将分形理论用于储层参数井间预测具有可行性．     

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.     

非线性时间序列分析的最新进展及其在地球科学中的应用前景

评述了非线性时间序列分析的最新进展,包括相空间重构、序列性质的鉴别、建模与预报,同时介绍了非线性时间序列分析在地球科学中的应用概况。     

龙羊峡水库库岸高边坡地下水位预测

龙羊峡水库近坝库岸高边坡稳定性是影响该工程安全和充分发挥电站经济效益的关键问题，而高边坡中地下水位的预测是稳定性评价中一项重要内容。本文以高边坡实际地质结构为背景，建立了地下水剖面二维流数学模型，运用初流量法求其均值解。结果同观测资料吻合较好，并对未来１０年地下水位动态作了预测。     

Predictive error dependencies when using pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

A significant practical problem with the pilot point method is to choose the location of the pilot points. We present a method that is intended to relieve the modeler from much of this responsibility. The basic idea is that a very large number of pilot points are distributed more or less uniformly over the model area. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the (possibly weighted) sensitivity matrix of the pilot point based model produces eigenvectors of which we pick a small number corresponding to significant eigenvalues. Super parameters are defined as factors through which parameter combinations corresponding to the chosen eigenvectors are multiplied to obtain the pilot point values. The model can thus be transformed from having many-pilot-point parameters to having a few super parameters that can be estimated by nonlinear regression on the basis of the available observations. (This technique can be used for any highly parameterized groundwater model, not only for models parameterized by the pilot point method.)