卫星遥感数据评估黄土高原陆面干湿程度研究

卫星遥感数据具有估算时空尺度上地表参量的优势,在陆地环境状况评估和监测等方面有很大的应用潜力.本文利用美国地球观测系统卫星搭载中等分辨率成像光谱仪（EOS/MODIS）在黄土高原2002-2010年期间获取的每16天归一化植被指数（NDVI）和每日地表温度（LST）数据,分析了黄土高原地区LST-NDVI空间的基本特征.结果发现：当研究区域足够大且遥感数据时间序列足够长时,LST-NDVI空间中（NDVI,LST）散点并非呈三角形或梯形分布.为了能够利用EOS/MODIS的NDVI和LST数据正确地评估陆面的干湿状况,本文给出了利用数据集合法确定LST-NDVI空间中干边和湿边的数值,即在LST-NDVI空间中,利用NDVI等值区间内LST最大值和最小值的集合代表干边和湿边的数值,并进一步证明了在LST-NDVI空间中干边和湿边数值并非呈线性关系.在分析LST-NDVI空间特征的基础上,通过构建地表温度-植被干旱指数（TVDI）,探讨其在评估黄土高原地区陆面的干湿状况的应用潜力.结果表明：由TVDI距平表征的陆面的干湿程度与局地降水距平有很好的关联性,二者在时空分布上有较好的对应关系.在我国陇东黄土高原塬区,TDVI数值与地面观测的表层土壤湿度有很好的相关性,相关系数在0.67以上,并通过显著性为1%的检验.由此说明：如果合理选取干边和湿边的数值,TDVI可应用于区域陆面干湿程度的客观评估.     

近30年影响我国东南沿海的热带气旋降水强度变化特征分析

利用中国地面台站逐日降水资料和中国气象局上海台风研究所整编的热带气旋最佳路径资料研究了1978～2007年影响我国热带气旋降水强度的变化及其对我国东南沿海盛夏降水变化的影响.近30年影响我国东南沿海盛夏的热带气旋降水增加是导致我国东南沿海盛夏降水显著增加的主要原因.仅从热带气旋降水来看,东南沿海和内陆(包括江西、湖南东部和湖北南部)热带气旋降水强度显著增加,而影响热带气旋降水频次略有增加.通过对雨量站与引起降水热带气旋的中心距离的变化分析发现:内陆地区影响热带气旋距离显著下降,近距离热带气旋引起降水的增加,是该区域热带气旋降水强度增加的主要来源;而东南沿海地区近距离热带气旋降水增加不明显,热带气旋降水强度的增加主要由于同距离热带气旋降水强度的增加.热带气旋经过频次的空间的变化结果证实,近30年经过中国沿海的TC个数变化不大,仅福建沿海一带略有增加,而内陆地区则增加明显,且经过该区域时热带气旋移动速度变慢,这均与该区域近距离热带气旋降水的增加一致.     

Assessing the impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on evapotranspiration

The impact of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation on the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration as well as on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration is studied using a stochastic soil moisture model within the Budyko framework. Results indicate that given the same long-term mean annual precipitation and potential evaporation, including interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation reduces the long-term mean annual evapotranspiration. This reduction effect is mostly prominent when the dryness index (i.e., the ratio of potential evaporation to precipitation) is within the range from 0.5 to 2. The maximum reductions in the evaporation ratio (i.e., the ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation) can reach 8–10% for a range of coefficient of variation (CV) values for precipitation and potential evaporation. The relations between the maximum reductions and the CV values of precipitation and potential evaporation follow power laws. Hence the larger the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation becomes, the larger the reductions in the evaporation ratio will be. The inclusion of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation also increases the interannual variability of evapotranspiration. It is found that the interannual variability of daily rainfall depth and that of the frequency of daily rainfall events have quantitatively different impacts on the interannual variability of evapotranspiration; and they also interact differently with the interannual variability of potential evaporation. The results presented in this study demonstrate the importance of understanding the role of interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation in land surface hydrology under a warming climate.     

Gravity change observed in a local gravity network and its implication to seasonal precipitation in Dali county,Yunnan province,China

This study investigates data-processing methods and examines the precipitation effect on gravity measurements at the Dali gravity network, established in 2005. High-quality gravity data were collected during four measurement campaigns. To use the gravity data validly, some geophysical corrections must be considered carefully. We first discuss data-processing methods using weighted least-squares adjustment with the constraint of the absolute gravity datum. Results indicate that the gravity precision can be improved if all absolute gravity data are used as constraints and if calibration functions of relative gravimeters are modeled within the observation function. Using this data-processing scheme, the mean point gravity precision is better than 12 μgal. After determining the best data-processing scheme, we then process the gravity data obtained in the four measurement campaigns, and obtain gravity changes in three time periods. Results show that the gravity has a remarkable change of more than 50 μgal in the first time period from Apr–May of 2005 to Aug–Sept of 2007. To interpret the large gravity change, a mean water mass change (0.6 m in height) is assumed in the ETOPO1 topographic model. Calculations of the precipitation effect on gravity show that it can reach the same order of the observed gravity change. It is regarded as a main source of the remarkable gravity change in the Dali gravity network, suggesting that the precipitation effect on gravity measurements must be considered carefully.     

Multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growing period of crops in Northeast China

Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural water status during crop growth season can provide scientific evidences for more efficient use of water resources and sustainable development of agricultural production under climate change. In this study, the following were used to evaluate the multidecadal changes in moisture condition during climatic growth period of crops in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010: (1) the daily climate variables gathered from 101 meteorological stations in Northeast China for 1961–2010; (2) FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) Penman–Monteith equation; (3) 80% guaranteed probability for agro-climatic indicators; and (4) the daily average temperature stably passing 0 °C, which is the threshold temperature of climatic growth period for crops. Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET₀) and relative moisture index were further calculated. The results showed that Northeast China’s climate in the main agricultural areas over the past 50 years was warmer and drier in general, with a growing range and intensity of drought. From 1961 to 2010, when the daily average temperature stably passed 0 °C, the average annual total precipitation (P) and ET₀ with 80% guaranteed probability in Northeast China both emerged as decreasing trends with averages of 555.0 mm and 993.7 mm, respectively. However, the decline in P was greater than that of annual total ET₀. As a result, the annual relative moisture indices sharply decreased with an average of −0.44, mostly fluctuating from −0.59 to −0.25. As far as spatial distributions were concerned, the inter-regional reductions in P and relative moisture index over the past 50 years were conspicuous, especially in some agricultural areas of central Heilongjiang Province, northeastern Jilin Province and northeastern Liaoning Province. On the contrary, ET₀ obviously increased in some agricultural areas of central and northwestern Heilongjiang Province (eg. Qiqiha’er, Shuangyashan, Hegang, Suihua, etc.), and northeastern Jilin Province (eg. Baicheng). This indicated that drought existed and was unfavorable for crop growth and development, especially during the period of 2001–2010. This finding revealed that drought was still one of the most important agricultural meteorological disasters in Northeast China. Some countermeasures should be formulated to adapt to climate change. Our findings have important implications for improving climate change impact studies, for breeding scientists to breed higher yielding cultivars, and for agricultural production to cope with ongoing climate change.     

青藏高原雨季特征及其对气候增暖的响应

利用青藏高原气象台站逐日观测资料,采用候雨量稳定通过临界阈值的方法对高原雨季起讫期进行客观定量划分,在此基础上,进一步分析增暖背景下雨季起讫期和雨季降水演变特征,并对比增暖前后高原雨季起讫期及不同等级降水的响应特征.结果表明:青藏高原雨季平均开始期为5月第3候、结束期为9月第6候、共持续28候;青藏高原雨季降水集中期为...     

中国降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性

利用中国740站45年降水资料按5种分辨率分气候区计算了降水年际和年代际变率. 降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性分析表明,中国各气候区降水年际变率对空间尺度的敏感性都随空间尺度的增加而逐渐减小,且存在明显的季节变化,而年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感性却随空间尺度的增加而增大,但不存在季节变化;由于中国各气候区降水的特殊性,各气候区降水年际和年代际变率对空间尺度的敏感程度存在不可忽视的差异.在年际和年代际尺度上,西南地区降水变率对空间尺度都是最敏感的,因而该区域降水年际和年代际变率信号的检测最困难.而华南地区在年际尺度上比较敏感,年代际尺度却不敏感,但华南地区在年际和年代际尺度上区域内降水分布的非均匀程度对空间尺度的敏感性都最大.     

旅游客源市场等级划分理论的应用及比较

基于旅游理论和实践的需要,对目前用于客源市场等级划分的3种基础理论——引力模型、空间距离递减规律及旅游竞争态模型理论的内涵和优缺点进行分析和评述;以神农架旅游客源市场等级划分为案例,从模型变量、数据要求、科学程度、应用难度、应用程度等方面对上述3种理论的应用价值进行比较研究。结果表明:从应用价值和科学程度而言,引力模型在市场域较大的旅游目的地或旅游景区(点)客源市场等级划分中具有显著优势;空间距离递减规律可作为市场域较小的旅游目的地或旅游景区(点)客源市场等级划分的主要依据;与引力模型、空间距离递减规律相比,旅游竞争态模型对数据要求较高,其应用较少。同时,任何一种理论都有其应用条件,实践中应根据实际情况和经验对理论划分结果进行必要的修正。     

TAN分类器及其在降水预报中的应用

本文研究了基于贝叶斯网络的TAN分类器.在朴素贝叶斯分类器的基础之上阐述了TAN分类器的假设条件、分类原理及算法,并着重研究了这一分类器在北京地区降水预报分类中的应用.     

西北地区东部季风摆动区大气边界层高度对夏季风 活动和季风降水的响应特征

大气边界层高度影响着近地层能量、水分的发展变化,而季风摆动区边界层受夏季风活动 和季风降水影响很大,变化特殊,但其边界层高度的响应特征并不清楚。应用西北地区东部 5 站民 勤、榆中、平凉、银川和延安 2006—2016 年 5～9 月逐日 19 时每隔 10 m 高度高空加密观测资料,以 及民勤 2006—2016 年逐日 07 时探空规定层和特性层资料,结合地面逐日观测资料,对比计算多种 资料找到合适的边界层高度。进一步运用 NCEP、EC 再分析资料,分析夏季风对季风摆动区的影 响,得出边界层高度与夏季风、季风期降水影响的关系。结果表明：基于每隔 10 m 加密压温湿风探 空资料,确定了 9 点平均位温梯度法作为边界层高度的最佳计算方法,该区边界层高度 5～6 月较 高,7～9 月逐渐降低,5～9 月平均高度由非季风影响区的 2 600 m、季风摆动区的 1 800 m 逐渐降低 到季风影响区的 1 500 m 以下。边界层高度与地面相对湿度、地温和风场关系密切,湿度越大、风 速越大,边界层高度越低,相反,近地面地气温差越大,气温越高,吹西北风时,边界层高度越高。 在不受夏季风影响时,边界层高度较高,有夏季影响风时,边界层高度较低。夏季风持续时间越 长,边界层高度越低,当夏季风持续时间为 0 候、1～4 候和≥ 5 候时,边界层高度分别为 2 000 m 左 右、1 600～1 900 m 和 1 300～1 400 m。APO 季风强度指数与季风影响区边界层高度有显著的负相 关,APO 季风强度指数越大,季风影响区边界层高度越低。边界层高度与季风期降水性质、强度关 系较为密切,从大到小为无降水、对流性降水和稳定性降水;随着降水强度增强,边界层高度降低, 边界层高度中非季风影响区较高,季风摆动区次之,季风影响区最低。降水日数越多,边界层高度 越低。夏季风反过来对降低边界层高度,增多增强季风期降水起着积极作用。