东亚南亚夏季降水对海温异常响应的数值模拟

利用IAP AGCM-Ⅱ大气环流模式，模拟了赤道中太平洋地区海温异常对东亚和南亚夏季（6～8月）降水的影响。结果表明：当1～4月该海温呈正异常时，中南半岛和我国东部降水将明显偏多，孟加拉湾附近降水偏少；而该海温呈负异常时，则我国华中和孟加拉湾附近降水偏多；对以上海温异常最敏感处为中南半岛和孟加拉湾附近地区，其中前者降水与该海温异常呈正相关，后者则呈负相关；该海温异常还会在中高纬地区激发出强迫波列。     

洛阳市2003年夏季多雨环流特征及汛期降水预报

分析了2003年洛阳夏季多雨环流特征，探讨了汛期降水偏多的预报因子，并用副高特征量因子建立了汛期降水预测模型。     

A mass balance approach to estimate the dilution and removal of the pollutants in stream water polluted by acid mine drainage

 A few simple mass balance equations were developed to simultaneously estimate how much the pollutants from acid mine drainage (AMD) in stream water are diluted and removed during their migration. The application of the equations requires knowledge of the variations in the concentrations of the dissolved pollutants and the stoichiometry of the precipitation reaction of the pollutants when none of the pollutant shows a conservative behavior along the stream path. The calculation should be restricted to the pollutants showing much higher concentrations in the polluted main stream water than in the combining or diluting water of the same target area. The mass balance equations were applied to estimate the dilution factor and precipitation fractions of pollutants in Imgok Creek such as Fe, SO₄ and Al from the AMD of Yeongdong mine. The results show that the estimation, especially for SO₄ and Al, significantly depends on the kinds of the precipitates. When FeOHSO₄ and AlOHSO₄ are assumed to precipitate, the maximum removal fractions of SO₄ and Al by precipitation are respectively 34% and 46% of the original input, which is much higher than the values estimated when SO₄ is considered to be perfectly conservative. It indicates that the stoichiometry of precipitation reaction is very important in the interpretation of the pollutant dilution and migration and assessment of environmental impacts of AMD. The applicability of the mass balance equations may still need to be verified. However, examining the calculated dilution factor and precipitation fractions with the equations can provide invaluable information on not only the behavior but also unexpected input of the pollutants in the stream water polluted by AMD and other point sources. Received: 12 November 1997 · Accepted: 30 March 1998     

北京一次积层混合云系结构和水分收支的数值模拟分析

本文利用中国气象科学研究院(CAMS)中尺度云分辨模式对2007年10月的一次积层混合云降水过程进行了数值模拟。利用模拟结果结合实测资料, 研究了积层混合云系的宏微观结构和降水特征, 并分析了云系的水分收支及降水效率。结果表明:积层混合云是导致此次北京降水的主要云型;积层混合云降水分布不均匀, 云系中微物理量的水平和垂直分布都不均匀, 具有混合相云的云物理结构。冷云降水过程占主导地位, 雪的融化对雨水的形成贡献最大。北京区域降水过程的主要水汽源地为黄海海面及蒙古国, 两支气流在陕西北部汇合后的西南气流将水汽输送到华北地区, 北京区域以外, 水汽和水凝物主要从西边界和南边界输送到域内。北京区域降水主要时段内, 水物质通量在水平方向上为净流入。对北京区域水汽、水凝物和总水物质的水分收支各项的估算表明, 水物质基本达到平衡。北京区域从2007年10月5日20时至6日14时, 总水成物降水效率、凝结率、凝华率及总水凝物降水效率分别为5.6%、4.77%、4.19%、44.9%。     

Paleoclimatic implications of the spatial patterns of modern and LGM European land-snail shell δO

The oxygen isotopic composition of land-snail shells may provide insight into the source region and trajectory of precipitation. Last glacial maximum (LGM) gastropod shells were sampled from loess from Belgium to Serbia and modern land-snail shells both record δ¹⁸O values between 0‰ and − 5‰. There are significant differences in mean fossil shell δ¹⁸O between sites but not among genera at a single location. Therefore, we group δ¹⁸O values from different genera together to map the spatial distribution of δ¹⁸O in shell carbonate. Shell δ¹⁸O values reflect the spatial variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation and incorporate the snails' preferential sampling of precipitation during the warm season. Modern shell δ¹⁸O decreases in Europe along a N-S gradient from the North Sea inland toward the Alps. Modern observed data of isotopes in precipitation (GNIP) demonstrate a similar trend for low-altitude sites. LGM shell δ¹⁸O data show a different gradient with δ¹⁸O declining toward the ENE, implying a mid-Atlantic source due to increased sea ice and a possible southern displacement of the westerly jet stream. Balkan LGM samples show the influence of a Mediterranean source, with δ¹⁸O values decreasing northward.     

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.     

基于不同海拔高度的雷达降水估测试验

在国内外雷达定量估测区域降水量一些方法基础上,将降水类型、地理位置和海拔高度同时纳入考虑范畴,在成都CINRAD/SC雷达站(海拔高度596.5 m)200 km范围内选择实验区,并按海拔高度将所选区域分为3区。然后利用2010年7—8月的雷达体扫资料以及同时段、同时次的雨量计数据,采用最优化算法分别在每个区域内修订传统Z-I关系中的"A,b"系数,以得到不同海拔地区的Z-I关系和每小时雨量估测值。研究表明,与直接采用传统的Z-I关系定量测量降水相比,各个区域内,经改善后的Z-I关系准确率提高了20%左右,算法相对简单,适合业务使用。     

基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究

传统的统计方法难以很好的对气候系统这一集非线性、非平稳性为一身的多层次系统进行处理。因此集层次化处理和平稳化处理的集合正交经验模态分解技术(EEMD)的提出,为解决上述问题提供了有效的途径。本文选取黄河中上游24个气象观测站的逐月降水资料,结合组合预报和集合预报思路,基于EEMD建立了统计预报模型。其中对降水序列中的高频部分进行了二次平稳化处理,实现对2008—2013年6—8月的降水预报,并用预报评分检测预报效果。结果表明:EEMD模型对黄河中上游夏季降水有着较强的预报能力,在该区域与气候模式和传统的统计方法相比具有更高的精度和更好的应用前景。     

A tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the Mohe region in the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains,China, since AD 1724

August–July precipitation has been reconstructed back to AD 1724 for the Mohe region in the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, using Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains 39% of the variance in the precipitation observed from AD 1960–2008. Some droughts noted in historical documents are precisely captured in our reconstruction. Wet periods occurred during the periods of AD 1734–1785, AD 1805–1830, AD 1863–1880, AD 1922–1961, and AD 1983–1998; while the periods of AD 1786–1804, AD 1831–1862, AD 1881–1921, and AD 1962–1982 were relatively dry. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demonstrated the existence of significant 24-yr, 12-yr, and 2-yr cycles of variability. The results of the spatial correlations suggest that our reconstruction contains climatic signals for the southern Stanovoy Range and the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains. The positive correlations between the new reconstructed precipitation series and two precipitation reconstructions indicate that our precipitation reconstruction captures broad-scale regional climatic variations. A comparison between the weakening tendency of summer monsoon and the dry period of our reconstruction reveals that the annual precipitation in the Mohe region is partly influenced by the East Asian Summer Monsoon.     

Study of occurrence states and precipitation mechanism of tellurium in Huangtun Au -Cu -bearing breccia pipe in Luzong Basin,Anhui, eastern ChinaSCIEI北大核心CSCD

隐爆角砾岩筒型金(铜)矿床作为重要的金矿床类型,常伴生关键金属碲的矿化,然而对于此类矿床中碲的分布、分配特征及沉淀机制研究仍较为薄弱。黄屯矿床是长江中下游成矿带近年来发现的最为典型的隐爆角砾岩筒型金铜矿床,伴生有大量的碲化物产出。本文在详细的野外地质工作和岩相学观察基础上,发现碲在矿床中发生了显著富集。通过对黄屯矿床不同蚀变类型矿石及主要富碲矿物开展全岩及微区地球化学分析,明确了碲的分布、分配特征以及初步讨论了碲的沉淀机制。黄屯矿床成矿阶段从早到晚可划分为钠钙硅酸盐、钾硅酸盐、绿泥石-碳酸盐和伊利石-蒙脱石阶段,在不同深度形成了相应的蚀变带,并发育有不同强度的金铜矿化。黄屯矿床伴生的碲储量约有118.71t,平均品位为5.3g/t,达到中型规模,具备重要的综合利用价值。钾硅酸盐蚀变带碲的分布比例最高,占总储量约92.37%,平均品位约为9.6g/t。钾硅酸盐蚀变带内约有89%~99%的碲呈独立矿物,主要以微米级、纳米级的碲铋矿包体的形式分布在黄铁矿中,剩余部分则以类质同象的形式赋存在黄铁矿和黄铜矿内。减压沸腾引起流体温度骤降导致硫化物沉淀,和沸腾过程中释放大量气相H_(2)S,共同导致流体的f(Te_(2))/f(S_(2))比值升高,可能是黄屯矿床中碲沉淀富集的主要机制。