辽宁省人工增雨天气概念模型

为了使人工增雨更有针对性,需要在作业方案制定阶段就对未来影响天气系统有一个明确的判断,需要总结出一套适合辽宁省进行人工增雨作业的天气概念模型。为此,普查了1983～1992年欧亚范围高空及地面天气图,筛选出影响辽宁省并产生降水的天气系统,加以分析归纳,建立了4种有利于辽宁省人工增雨作业的天气概念模型,即西风槽型、东北冷涡型、切变线型及副高型,并分别给出了未来12～24h影响辽宁省的警戒区及最佳人工增雨作业区。     

Paleoclimatic implications of the spatial patterns of modern and LGM European land-snail shell δO

The oxygen isotopic composition of land-snail shells may provide insight into the source region and trajectory of precipitation. Last glacial maximum (LGM) gastropod shells were sampled from loess from Belgium to Serbia and modern land-snail shells both record δ¹⁸O values between 0‰ and − 5‰. There are significant differences in mean fossil shell δ¹⁸O between sites but not among genera at a single location. Therefore, we group δ¹⁸O values from different genera together to map the spatial distribution of δ¹⁸O in shell carbonate. Shell δ¹⁸O values reflect the spatial variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation and incorporate the snails' preferential sampling of precipitation during the warm season. Modern shell δ¹⁸O decreases in Europe along a N-S gradient from the North Sea inland toward the Alps. Modern observed data of isotopes in precipitation (GNIP) demonstrate a similar trend for low-altitude sites. LGM shell δ¹⁸O data show a different gradient with δ¹⁸O declining toward the ENE, implying a mid-Atlantic source due to increased sea ice and a possible southern displacement of the westerly jet stream. Balkan LGM samples show the influence of a Mediterranean source, with δ¹⁸O values decreasing northward.     

Precipitation type estimation and validation in China

The results from three methods aimed at improving precipitation type(e.g., rain, sleet, and snow) estimation are presented and compared in this paper. The methods include the threshold air temperature(AT), threshold wet bulb temperature(WBT) and Koistinen and Saltikoff(KSS) methods.Dot graphs are plotted to acquire the threshold air temperature or the threshold wet bulb temperature using daily averaged air temperature, wet bulb temperature and precipitation data at 643 stations from 1961 to 1979(precipitation types are not labeled in the database from 1980 to present) in China. The results indicate that the threshold AT or WBT methods are not able to differentiate rain, sleet and snow in the most regions in China; sleet is difficult to differentiate from other precipitation types based on the two threshold methods. Therefore, one threshold AT and WBT method was used in this study to differentiate rain and snow. Based on GaussianKriging interpolation of threshold air temperature(T0and wet bulb temperature(Tw), the T0 and Tw contour lines and contour surfaces are calculated for China.Finally, a comparison between the KSS, AT and WBT methods are provided in which the KSS method is calculated based on air temperature and relative humidity. The results suggest that the KSS method is more appropriate for water phase estimation than are the other methods; the maximum precision for rain and snow is 99% and 94%, respectively. The AT method performs better than the WBT method when the critical air temperature is 2°C.     

Mapping daily temperature and precipitation in the Qilian Mountains of northwest China

Daily meteorological data are the critical inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models. This study modified mountain microclimate simulation model （MTCLIM） with the data from 19 weather stations, and compared and validated two methods （the MTCLIM and the modified MTCLIM） in the Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to estimate daily temperature （i.e., maximum temperature, minimum temperature） and precipitation at six weather stations from i January 2000 to 31December 2009. The algorithm of temperature in modified MTCLIM was improved by constructing the daily linear regression relationship between temperature and elevation, aspect and location information. There are two steps to modify the MTCLIM to predict daily precipitation： firstly, the linear regression relationship was built between annual average precipitation and elevation, location, and vegetation index; secondly, the distance weight for measuring the contribution of each weather station on target point was improved by average wind direction during the rainy season. Several regression analysis and goodness-of-fit indices （i.e., Pearson＇s correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error, root-mean-square error and modelingefficiency） were used to validate these estimated values. The result showed that the modified MTCLIM had a better performance than the MTCLIM. Therefore, the modified MTCLIM was used to map daily meteorological data in the study area from 2000 to 2009. These results were validated using weather stations with short time data and the predicted accuracy was acceptable. The meteorological data mapped could become inputs for distributed hydrological and ecological models applied in the Qilian Mountains.     

东营市胜利油田工矿废弃地调查与整治潜力分析

当前,城市的快速扩张导致建设用地供需矛盾日益突出,油田工矿废弃地整治作为土地综合整治规划的重要组成部分,在建设用地指标转移、有效耕地面积增加、生态环境改善等方面可以起到积极的作用。因此,为查清东营市胜利油田工矿废弃地的复垦利用潜力,首先对石油开采对土地利用的影响进行了综述,在此基础上确定了胜利油田工矿废弃地的基本类型,进而对工矿废弃地的现状进行了调查,依据废弃地所在区域的规划用途、灌溉条件、排水条件,盐碱程度、区位条件进行了潜力分区和测算,最终获得了东营市胜利油田工矿废弃地潜力测算的相关数据,可以为该区域工矿废弃地的整治及建设用地、耕地指标的流转与保护提供参考依据。     

基于不同海拔高度的雷达降水估测试验

在国内外雷达定量估测区域降水量一些方法基础上,将降水类型、地理位置和海拔高度同时纳入考虑范畴,在成都CINRAD/SC雷达站(海拔高度596.5 m)200 km范围内选择实验区,并按海拔高度将所选区域分为3区。然后利用2010年7—8月的雷达体扫资料以及同时段、同时次的雨量计数据,采用最优化算法分别在每个区域内修订传统Z-I关系中的"A,b"系数,以得到不同海拔地区的Z-I关系和每小时雨量估测值。研究表明,与直接采用传统的Z-I关系定量测量降水相比,各个区域内,经改善后的Z-I关系准确率提高了20%左右,算法相对简单,适合业务使用。     

Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪观测较强降水的可行性分析和建议

为了研究OTT-Parsivel激光雨滴谱仪(简称Parsivel)在较强降水观测中应用的可行性,用南京地区2012年6—7月份4个典型的降水个例,对Parsivel和SL3-1翻斗式雨量计(简称雨量计)的累积降水量、降水强度观测资料进行对比分析,并与人工雨量筒观测作以比较。结果表明:Parsivel测值是可信的,在累积降水量观测上,与雨量计具有很好的相关性,但测值始终偏高,该现象主要是粒子相互遮挡造成的。雨量计的反应时间,明显滞后于Parsivel。雨量计测值接近人工测值;而Parsivel与人工测值的偏差明显大于雨量计。结合实验分析与业务应用,提出3点使用建议:(1)仪器应架设在无遮蔽物的开阔地带。(2)采样周期应随着降水强度(地理位置)的不同而改变。(3)对降水微物理参量特征以及粒子谱分析时,可剔除直径过大、速度很低的粒子。     

欧亚大陆春季融雪与长江流域夏季降水的可能联系

利用1979—2007年全球月平均的积雪水当量资料,定义了春季积雪水当量增量指数,该指数可以较为直观地反映春季融雪的情况。通过这一纽带,分析了欧亚大陆春季融雪与长江流域夏季降水之间的联系。研究表明:欧亚大陆春季融雪与中国长江流域夏季降水是负相关关系,这与高原积雪的影响是不一致的。春季融雪量的减少,使得欧亚大陆北部夏季剩余积雪偏多,夏季融雪增多。融雪的局地效应使得土壤湿度增加,加大了欧亚大陆南北热力差异。从而,夏季中纬度的纬向风切变增大,对流层上层的副热带西风急流增强,副热带高压增强西伸,但是北抬受到抑制。长江流域位于异常西南暖湿气流与冷空气的辐合带上,上升运动活跃,有利于降水偏多。     

基于EEMD的黄河中上游夏季降水预报方法的研究

传统的统计方法难以很好的对气候系统这一集非线性、非平稳性为一身的多层次系统进行处理。因此集层次化处理和平稳化处理的集合正交经验模态分解技术(EEMD)的提出,为解决上述问题提供了有效的途径。本文选取黄河中上游24个气象观测站的逐月降水资料,结合组合预报和集合预报思路,基于EEMD建立了统计预报模型。其中对降水序列中的高频部分进行了二次平稳化处理,实现对2008—2013年6—8月的降水预报,并用预报评分检测预报效果。结果表明:EEMD模型对黄河中上游夏季降水有着较强的预报能力,在该区域与气候模式和传统的统计方法相比具有更高的精度和更好的应用前景。     

Extracting the subsonic anti-symmetric lamb wave from a submerged thin spherical shell backscattering through iterative time reversal

The extraction of the weakly excited anti-symmetric Lamb wave from a submerged thin spherical shell backscattering is very difficult if the carrier frequency of the incident short tone burst is not at its frequency of greatest enhancement. Based on a single channel iterative time reversal technique, a method for isolating the subsonic anti-symmetric Lamb wave is proposed in this paper. The approach does not depend on the form function of a thin shell and any other priori knowledge, and it is also robust in the presence of some stochastic noise. Both theoretical and numerical results show that the subsonic anti-symmetric Lamb wave can be identified, even when the carrier frequency of the incident short tone burst is away from the frequency of greatest enhancement. The phenomenon may also be observed even in the case that the subsonic anti-symmetric Lamb wave is submerged in the noise, other than the case with the Signal to Noise Ratio being less than 10 dB, when the amplitude of the noise is comparable with the specular wave. In this paper, each iteration process contains a traditional transmission and time reversal transmission steps. The two steps can automatically compensate the time delay of the subsonic anti-symmetric Lamb wave relative to the specular wave and within-mode dispersion in the forward wave propagation.