内蒙古八大关斑岩型Cu Mo矿床成矿流体特征及成矿机制研究

八大关斑岩型Cu-Mo矿床是我国内蒙大兴安岭成矿带北段典型的斑岩型Cu-Mo矿床之一,矿体主要产出在成矿斑岩体与围岩的内外接触带。通过详细的岩相学和矿相学观察,矿床可以划分出5个成矿阶段,即钾长石阶段→辉钼矿-石英阶段→磁铁矿-黄铁矿(黄铜矿)石英阶段→铜(铅锌)石英阶段→石英-绿泥石±碳酸盐阶段。矿床内石英中的流体包裹体类型有富气相包裹体、富液相包裹体、含子矿物的多相包裹体和含CO_2的三相包裹体,但石英-绿泥石阶段石英中明显缺乏后两类包裹体。显微测温和激光拉曼结果显示,石英斑晶中代表早期成矿流体的均一温度为460~572℃,盐度ω(NaCl_(eq))高达59.76%,子矿物有石盐和代表氧化环境的硬石膏,气相成分富含CO_2,液相成分以H_2O为主,富含CO_3~(2-)。辉钼矿-石英阶段流体包裹体的均一温度为320~440℃,盐度ω(NaCl_(eq))为0.83%~63.13%,子矿物有石盐、赤铁矿和未知硫化物,可见富气相、富液相和含CO_2或子矿物的多相包裹体共存,且其具有相近的均一温度,但盐度相差悬殊,指示成矿流体曾发生过沸腾作用;而铜(铅锌)-石英阶段的均一温度为260~340℃,盐度ω(NaCl_(eq))为0.42%~37.40%,子矿物有石盐和硬石膏,气液相成分以H_2O为主,富含CO_3~(2-)。与辉钼矿-石英阶段相比,该阶段成矿流体的温度变化尤为显著。石英-绿泥石阶段中流体包裹体的均一温度为237~306℃,盐度ω(NaCl_(eq))则低于10.86%,无子晶,贫CO_2。综合O、H同位素,初始成矿流体属于中高温、高盐度、高氧逸度和富CO_2的岩浆热液;随着成矿过程的进行,大气水的混合比例越来越高,成矿流体逐渐演化为岩浆热液和大气水的混合热液;晚阶段成矿流体主要以大气水为主。通过系统的流体包裹体研究,我们认为矿床的成矿物质是由同一流体带入成矿热液系统,但其沉淀机制却发生了解耦,即辉钼矿的沉淀主要与减压沸腾作用有关,而铜(铅锌)硫化物的沉淀主要与温度降低有关。     

天山地区水汽再循环量化研究

利用传统气候学的Brubaker二元模型和降水同位素平衡模型定量研究了新疆天山地区水汽再循环特征。结果表明:(1)气候学角度,天山地区水汽再循环率为9.32%。当地蒸发的水汽形成的降水量为41.8 mm,外来水汽输送到山区形成的降水量为407.2 mm;(2)同位素水汽氘盈余为精细化的分析水汽再循环提供了新的思路,进一步证实天山地区水汽主要来自于西风带的水汽输送,而乌鲁木齐站平均再循环水汽仅占到8%。随着海拔的增加,水汽再循环率逐渐下降,在海拔2000 m以上的水汽再循环可以忽略不计。在西风带关键水汽输送路径建立降水同位素观测断面,使两种方法相结合,共同研究水汽的来源和路径问题,是下一步需要关注的问题。     

台湾岛地形对“麦德姆”台风的影响

采用WRF模式,以2014年10号台风"麦德姆"为例,针对台湾岛中央山脉的局部地形,设计精细化地形试验,数值模拟了"麦德姆"台风登陆台湾岛前后地形对其路径、强度及风雨分布的影响。研究结果表明:真实的地形能更好的模拟和再现"麦德姆"台风发生发展的过程;台湾岛中央山脉地形对登岛"麦德姆"台风的路径有实质性的影响,降低台湾地形高度试验导致台风路径向西南偏转,而提高台湾岛地形高度则导致台风路径向东北偏转,地形高度改变的程度与路径偏转程度成正相关,地形高度改变所导致阻挡效应及台风环流与大尺度环流的相互作用是导致路径偏转的主要原因;台湾岛地形高度的改变对台风强度有明显的影响,增加或减少台湾岛地形高度,都会使台风强度有所减弱,这与地形变化引起的动力狭管效应、云水物质分布及外围云带的对流运动有关;台湾岛地形影响"麦德姆"台风降水的机制更为复杂,其不仅与地形引发的台风强度及结构变化有关,更与地形引起的眼区对流活动和螺旋云带及外围云系的时空分布有关。     

两种基于雷达的临近预报算法在赣江流域的应用

将多尺度雷达回波跟踪(MTREC:Muti-scale Tracking radar echoes by correlation)算法和基于降水栅格数据的网格追踪临近预报外推(PBN:Pixel-Based Nowcasting)算法应用在赣江流域,对这两种临近预报算法在1~3 h预见期的临近预报降水数据进行评估,总结两种临近预报算法在赣江流域的预报性能和预报特点。结果表明:(1)随着预见期的增加,MTREC方法的预报性能变化较为平缓。PBN方法的预报性能明显变差。(2)MTREC方法预报降水偏弱,且对于低值降水预报较为准确,而PBN方法预报降水偏强,且预报高值降水较为准确。(3)MTREC方法预报的降水高值区的范围偏小而低值降水区范围偏大,PBN方法预报的高值降水区的范围偏大而低值降水区范围偏小。(4)随着预见期的增加,MTREC方法的降水概率预报变化较为平稳,而PBN方法预报高值降水(0.4 mm·h~(-1))的概率偏高,预报低值降水(0.4 mm·h~(-1))的概率偏低。     

Flood forecasting in Niger-Benue basin using satellite and quantitative precipitation forecast data

Availability of reliable, timely and accurate rainfall data is constraining the establishment of flood forecasting and early warning systems in many parts of Africa. We evaluated the potential of satellite and weather forecast data as input to a parsimonious flood forecasting model to provide information for flood early warning in the central part of Nigeria. We calibrated the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff model using rainfall data from post real time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi satellite Precipitation Analysis product (TMPA). Real time TMPA satellite rainfall estimates and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) rainfall products were tested for flood forecasting. The implication of removing the systematic errors of the satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) was explored. Performance of the rainfall-runoff model was assessed using visual inspection of simulated and observed hydrographs and a set of performance indicators. The forecast skill was assessed for 1–6 days lead time using categorical verification statistics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), Frequency Of Hit (FOH) and Frequency Of Miss (FOM). The model performance satisfactorily reproduced the pattern and volume of the observed stream flow hydrograph of Benue River. Overall, our results show that SREs and rainfall forecasts from weather models have great potential to serve as model inputs for real-time flood forecasting in data scarce areas. For these data to receive application in African transboundary basins, we suggest (i) removing their systematic error to further improve flood forecast skill; (ii) improving rainfall forecasts; and (iii) improving data sharing between riparian countries.     

综合治水,开发青岛的新水源

扼要论述了青岛市水资源面临短缺的严重形势，认为解决青岛地区水危机仅靠传统开发水资源方式已很困难，必需积极利用青岛的科技、资源优势，开发新水源。     

冬季东亚主要行星尺度环流分量的时空特征及其相互行用

本文采用一种复经验正交函数分析方法和滤波技术,对1978—79年冬季全球冬季风实验资料系列FGGE-Ⅲb进行分析,尤其对东亚地区时间尺度10—20天的主要行星尺度环流分量进行分解,结果表明影响气压和厚度场的决定性因子是冷季风潮,受季风潮影响200百帕上无辐散风u_φ第一模态以1—2天滞后沿经向和纬向有类似于季风潮的传播;季风潮振动导致局地经向环流相应变化,以无旋风V_X第一模态表示的Hadley环流几乎无经向传播但有明显的纬向传播,并在传播过程中加强;热带对于副热带存在反馈并通过u_φ第二模态实现。在急流入口处u_X第二模态表示次级环流的存在,其水平尺度约20个纬距。     

Emergence Patterns of Small Subtidal Arthropods in Relation to Day/Night, Tidal, and Surface/Bottom Factors: Investigations in the Boreal Sea, Japan (Akkeshi, Hokkaido)

The emergence of small arthropods was studied in the boreal sea, Japan (Akkeshi, Hokkaido). In the shallow subtidal zone, two impeller pumps were set in the surface and bottom waters. The pumps ran continuously for 25 days (22 August-16 September, 1998), and invertebrates were sampled using a nylon net (300 to 500 m in mesh size). The small arthropods collected with the net belonged to 16 orders comprising about 60 taxa. In the dominant 23 taxa, a two-way ANOVA was applied to determine whether there was any significant difference in abundance between day and night and between surface and bottom. While emergence of 15 taxa (65%) was significantly different with regard to the day/night factor, that of the other 8 taxa (35%) was not. As to the difference between the two depths, the distribution of 15 taxa (65%) was significantly different. Furthermore, in 25 taxa for which over 100 specimens were collected in each of the two depths of water, emergence patterns were examined with regard to the synchrony with day/night and tidal cycles. There were various nocturnal patterns, and the strength of the synchrony with the day/night cycle was different for each species or group. Within the same taxa, nocturnal patterns were more clearly manifested in the surface water than in the bottom water. A tidal rhythm of emergence was only seen in zoeas of shrimp. Variations of the emergence patterns of benthic crustaceans are accounted for by a hypothesis that the frequency of swimming during day versus at night is different in each species. On the other hand, the emergence patterns of some zooplankton reflect by the daily rhythm of vertical migration or dispersal in the water column.     

日长变化与地磁场变化的时滞相关分析

利用历史地磁场模型资料和日长资料,计算和分析了1840~2000年期间地磁场变化与日长变化的互相关特点。结果表明,地磁变化与日长变化存在时滞相关。地磁场强度参数的变化比日长变化超前7.5~10a(年);地磁场西向漂移参数比日长变化滞后,其中,西漂分量.λ12和.λ23滞后7.5a,而地磁场的平均漂移速度和纬度漂移分量滞后20~22.5a。     

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development

The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.