Potential Evapotranspiration Characteristic and Its Abrupt Change Across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and Its Surrounding Areas in the Last 50 Years

Daily routine observation data from 274 meteorological stations in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas from 1970 to 2017 were utilized to examine the spatial patterns and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration with the formula of FAO Penman-Monteith, in consideration of China’s eco-geographical divisions. The results showed that \mathrm{①} annual and seasonal average potential evapotranspiration, except for summer and winter, displayed a distinct spatial pattern in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas, with higher values in the north and south but lower values in the middle; the time when monthly potential evapotranspiration reached its maximum or minimum showed clearly zonal differences, namely earlier in the south and later in the north. \mathrm{②} The prevailing mean and trend abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration were observed in the study area, while there were large differences in the abrupt change time in different regions and seasons. Specifically, the mean abrupt change was dominated by positive mutation, with generally the earliest abrupt change time occurring in spring and the latest appearing in winter; the trend abrupt change pattern was mainly described as the process shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend, the trend change points in year, spring, autumn and winter were postponed gradually from the northeast to the southwest with a delay of about 20, 10, 20 and 5 years, respectively. Comparatively, the abrupt change time of potential evapotranspiration trend in the whole plateau was later than that in the whole buffer zone, with a respective lag of 5, 1, 12, 5 and 4 years. \mathrm{③} Corresponding to the periodic change of potential evapotranspiration, significant evaporation paradox only scattered through the study area during the period before the trend change point (2007), but it was absent afterwards and would not appear in the future. The above findings will provide a scientific basis for further understanding the climate change and eco-hydrological process of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding areas in global warming.     

印度洋偶极子预报技巧在多模式中的对比研究

本文采用北美多模式集合产品数据,分析了印度洋偶极子指数在不同模式中实际预报技巧和潜在可预报性的差异,并进一步探究其可能的原因。结果表明,印度洋偶极子的有效预报时效在不同模式中差别较大,从2个月到4个月不等。其中东极子海温异常在不同模式中预报技巧的差别较西极子海表面温度异常更明显,表明模式误差和初始误差对东极子海表面温度异常演变的影响更为显著。另外,印度洋偶极子的实际预报技巧和潜在预报技巧存在明显的线性关系,潜在预报技巧高的模式,其实际预报技巧也高。最后,本文诊断、分析了厄尔尼诺对印度洋偶极子预报技巧的影响,发现在厄尔尼诺和印度洋偶极子相关性较高的气候模式中,印度洋偶极子实际预报技巧也较高。     

运城盆地秋冬季PM2.5传输特征和源区分析

利用2017-2019年空气质量监测数据，采用HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式、聚类分析、潜在源贡献因子分析法（PSCF）和浓度权重轨迹分析法（CWT），对运城市秋冬季大气PM2.5传输路径、对应重污染的天气形势和潜在源区进行分析。结果表明：（1）运城近地层盛行偏东风时污染频率高，弱的偏东风和西南风时，污染物浓度较大。秋冬季PM2.5后向轨迹西北方向最多达53.53%，偏东方向最少为11.25%，偏西方向和西南方向介于两者之间，分别为16.61%和12.06%。（2）不同轨迹对应天气形势不同，西北和偏西轨迹下，500 hPa高度场上为两槽一脊或偏西气流，700～850 hPa受脊前西北气流影响，地面为高压前底部型或均压场型；西南轨迹下，500 hPa高度场上为偏西气流，700～850 hPa运城处于槽前西南气流，地面气压场为高压前底部（底部）或均压场。（3）运城PM2.5潜在源区主要位于陕西南部、四川东部和新疆东南、甘肃的东南部等地区，说明影响运城秋冬季PM2.5的浓度除了来自汾渭平原西南部的颗粒物区域输送，来自西北方向新疆、甘肃的远距离颗粒物传输也是重要来源。     

基于熵权-TOPSIS法的柴达木盆地地下水富水性评价

柴达木盆地作为一个典型干旱内陆盆地,其蕴藏的地下水是重要的自然资源。建立影响盆地地下水富水性的特征数据库,采用熵权法和TOPSIS结合的4种模型,对柴达木盆地地下水空间富水性分别进行定量评价。评价结果表明,造成柴达木盆地地下水空间富水性差异的主要原因是植被覆盖度(35.35%)、蒸发损失(26.92%)和入渗补给(18.90%)。盆地西北地区为弱富水性,中部地区为较弱富水性,南部和东部富水性较强。4种模型中E TOPSIS 2模型取得了较为合理的评价结果。最后,将评价得分和140个单井涌水量进行了拟合,建立了基于E TOPSIS 2得分的盆地单井涌水量预测模型。研究结果可对柴达木盆地地下水资源的开发和保护提供一定借鉴意义。     

江苏“十五”地质找矿规划设想

简要回顾了以往江苏的地质和找矿工作,分析了目前地质勘查工作中存在的问题、江苏矿产资源的找矿潜力、地质勘查工作的发展趋势。在此基础上,提出了“十五”地质找矿目标、发展重点和地区布局,并就促进地质勘查工作的发展提出了对策建议。