上海市南部地区地震危险性分析

本文通过对工作区内地震地质、地球物理场特征研究,确定了场区周围九个潜在震源区,分析计算得出各潜在震源区的地震活动性参数。用概率论的方法,以洪华生等人提出的《断层—破裂模型》计算得到上海市南部地区地震烈度年超越概率以及10、20、50、100、200、300、500年内场区的地震影响烈度超越概率,并对这一地区的地震危险性进行了估计。     

Influence of southern oscillation index on the variability and predictability of Indian monsoon. A reappraisal

The relationship between the monsoon rainfall throughout all India, northwest India and peninsular India as well as the onset dates of the monsoon and two indices of southern oscillation (SOI), namely Isla de Pascua minus Darwin (I-D) and Tahiti minus Darwin (T-D) pressure anomaly have been studied for different periods. The study indicates that the monsoon rainfall shows a strong and significant direct relationship with SOI for the concurrent, succeeding autumn and succeeding winter seasons. The magnitude of the direct correlation coefficient for the SOI using (I-D) is enhanced over all India and peninsular India if the above seasons happen to be associated with an easterly phase of the QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) at 50 mb. The result indicates that the strength of the monsoon plays an important role in the following southern oscillation events in the Pacific Ocean. The premonsoon tendency of the SOI anomaly spring minus winter SOI shows a significant positive correlation with monsoon rainfall over all India, northwest India and peninsular India. The absolute value of the positive correlation coefficient becomes highly enhanced over all India, northwest India as well as peninsular India if the 6-month period from December to March is associated with the westerly phase of the QBO. Hence, the premonsoon SOI tendency parameter can be a useful predictor of Indian monsoon rainfall especially if it happens to be associated with the westerly QBO. Significant negative association is also found between the anomaly of monsoon onset dates and SOI of the previous spring season, the absolute value being higher for SOI (T-D) than for SOI (I-D). The negative correlation coefficient becomes enhanced if the previous springs are associated with a westerly phase of the QBO. It shows that the previous spring SOI has some predictive value for the onset date of Indian monsoon, a positive SOI followed by an early onset of monsoon, andvice versa, especially if it is associated with a westerly phase of the QBO.     

Meanders caused by hyperconcentrated water flow: An example from the loess plateau,China

This paper describes meandering alluvial rivers with mean annual suspended-sediment concentrations of more than 100 kgm^?3 on the Loess Plateau, China, and explains their formation as caused by the effect of hyperconcentrated water flow. When the river is dominated by hyperconcentrated flow, the rate of energy expenditure required for sediment transport declines significantly. Accordingly, the river channel adjusts itself to a lower channel gradient by increasing the river length, resulting in a meandering channel. Since the stable transportation of sediment by hyperconcentrated flow is dependent on river channel boundary conditions, the latter play an important role in the formation of meanders of this kind. The paper also discusses the conditions for the discrimination of meandering and braided rivers in this area.     

西北地区近期地壳水平运动与构造变形特征

利用截止2004年的西北地区GPS和跨祁连-龙首山构造带的红外测距观测资料，借助最小二乘配置、弹性块体边界负位错模型及单一力源反演，研究昆仑山口西8．1级大震前后西北地区水平形变应变场的动态演化特征；尤其是大震3年后，即当前的构造形变与应力场态势；获取活动块体及其边界断裂上可能反映中强以上孕震背景的高应变能积累区、段，以及可能的潜在震源。结果表明：青藏块体北缘地区经8．1级大震后的短期松弛和调整，目前正在恢复印度板块北东向碰撞推挤背景场的主控作用。而北天山构造带中段及其与西段的交汇区、南天山构造带中西段及其与西昆仑构造带的交汇区、阿尔金断裂中段、祁连山构造带中东段及其与海原断裂的交汇区、西秦岭北缘断裂与庄浪河断裂东南延伸线的交汇区域等具有相对高应变能积累背景；临泽与海原这两个地区也反映一定程度的应变能积累状态。     

Progress in Predictability Studies in China （2003-2006）

Since the last International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly(2003),predictability studies in China have made significant progress.For dynamic forecasts,two novel approaches of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation and nonlinear local Lyapunov exponents were proposed to cope with the predictability problems of weather and climate,which are superior to the corresponding linear theory.A possible mechanism for the"spring predictability barrier"phenomenon for the El Ni(?)o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)was provided based on a theoretical model.To improve the forecast skill of an intermediate coupled ENSO model,a new initialization scheme was developed,and its applicability was illustrated by hindcast experiments.Using the reconstruction phase space theory and the spatio-temporal series predictive method, Chinese scientists also proposed a new approach to improve dynamical extended range(monthly)prediction and successfully applied it to the monthly-scale predictability of short-term climate variations.In statistical forecasts,it was found that the effects of sea surface temperature on precipitation in China have obvious spatial and temporal distribution features,and that summer precipitation patterns over east China are closely related to the northern atmospheric circulation.For ensemble forecasts,a new initial perturbation method was used to forecast heavy rain in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces on 8 June 1998.Additionally, the ensemble forecast approach was also used for the prediction of a tropical typhoons.A new downscaling model consisting of dynamical and statistical methods was provided to improve the prediction of the monthly mean precipitation.This new downsealing model showed a relatively higher score than the issued operational forecast.     

Delineation of potential groundwater zones based on multicriteria decision making technique

Groundwater is the most prioritized water source in India and plays an indispensable role in India's economy. The groundwater potential mapping is key to the sustainable groundwater development and management. A hybrid methodology is applied to delineate potential groundwater zones based on remote sensing, geographical information systems(GIS) and analytic hierarchy process(AHP) as on multicriteria decision making. For the purpose of demonstrating field application, Chittar watershed, Tamilnadu, India is studied as an example. The important morphological characteristics considered in the study are lithology, geomorphology, lineament density, drainage density, slope, and Soil Conservation Service–Curve Number(SCS-CN). These six thematic layers are generated in a GIS platform. Based on intersecting the layers, AHP method, the values for adopting the pairwise comparison normalized weight and normalized subclasses weightage were given. The normalized subclass weightage is input into each layer subclass. Then, weighted linear combination method is used to add the data layers in GIS platform to generate groundwater potential Index(GWPI) map. The GWPI map is validated based on the net recharge computed from the differences of measured groundwater levels between the pre-monsoon and post-monsoon in the year 2018. The kappa statistics are used to measure level spatial consistency between the GWPI and net recharge map. The overall average spatial matching accuracy between the two data sets is 0.86, while the kappa coefficient for GWPI with net recharge, 0.78. The results show that in Chittar watershed about 870 km~2 area is divided into high potential zone(i.e. sum of very high and high potential zone), 667 km~2 area, as the moderate one and the rest 105 km~2 area, as the poor zone(i.e. sum of very poor and poor potential zone).     

南北地震带地震活动分析

在综合分析有关南北地震带研究成果的基础上重点分析了南北地震带活动特征;根据该带地震活动特点和规律提出了南北地震带目前处于新的活动期;预测了今后发生强震的潜在危险区（段）为南北地震带的中北段。     

Delineation of Potential Seismic Source Regions of Moderately Strong Earthquakes Without Seismogenic Tectonics

In this paper,approaches are developed to delineate the potential seismic source regions of moderately strong earthquakes that do not have clear seismotectonic settings.Based on comprehensive analysis of regional tectonic backgrounds and seismicity,the data,such as isoseisrnals,spatial distribution of after shocks,regional tectonic stress field,and focal mechanisms,are employed for the delineation of the potential seismic source regions.The reliability of such potential seismic source regions is also discussed.     

试论工程场地砂土液化的综合评判——以福-泉高速公路长乐营前三汊港特大桥为例

本文以对营前特大桥桥位区的砂土液化的综合评判为例子,提出砂土液化必须运用定值准则的概念与方法并结合各种宏观液化势判定手段进行综合评判,文中还针对水下孔的水位取值进行了讨论。