STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF REDUCING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS ON MONTHLY REGIONAL CLIMATE DYNAMICAL FORECAST

A nested-model system is constructed by embedding the regional climate model RegCM3 into ageneral circulation model for monthly-scale regional climate forecast over East China. The systematicerrors are formulated for the region on the basis of 10-yr (1991-2000) results of the nested-model system,and of the datasets of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) andthe temperature analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC), U.S.A., which are then used forcorrecting the original forecast by the system for the period 2001-2005. After the assessment of the originaland corrected forecasts for monthly precipitation and surface air temperature, it is found that the correctedforecast is apparently better than the original, suggesting that the approach can be applied for improvingmonthly-scale regional climate dynamical forecast.     

基于人工神经网络的区域地质灾害危险性预测评价

地质灾害危险性预测评价的准确性,主要取决于基础资料的可靠性和数学模型的合理性。论文结合工程实例,尝试用人工神经网络方法(改进的神经网络BP模型)对区域地质灾害危险性预测进行评价研究。然后与目前常用的方法(如层次分析法、信息量法和模糊综合评判法等)所得出的结果相比较。结果表明,运用人工神经网络方法对区域地质灾害危险性预测评价相对常用方法更准确、可靠,具有一定的实用意义及推广价值。     

傍河地下水水源地污染模式研究

傍河取水是常见的地下水供水形式之一,但水源地的水质常常受到河流污染物的威胁。近年来,随着区域地下水位的下降和开采条件的变化,河水补给地下水的形式也趋于多样化,从而影响着污染物的迁移。本文通过对河水与地下水的各种关系的分析,给出了河水污染地下水的各种模式,并综合得出其数学模型及其解,最后用实例说明其应用过程。     

河北马家峪地球物理及地球化学异常特征及找矿前景

基于对马家峪地区地质条件、地球物理场特征、深部验证情况的分析、研究和总结,发现了一些新的多金属矿产与地质、构造、岩浆岩之间存在着的空间分布相互关系.从元素组合来看,地表中低温成矿元素和前缘元素含量较高,而高温元素,尤其是金元素含量则相对较低.因而认为矿体的剥蚀程度不大,主矿体尚处于隐伏状态,区内找矿前景较大.     

Uranium pollution in an estuary affected by pyrite acid mine drainage and releases of naturally occurring radioactive materials

After the termination of phosphogypsum discharges to the Huelva estuary (SW Spain), a unique opportunity was presented to study the response of a contaminated environmental compartment after the cessation of its main source of pollution. The evolution over time of uranium concentrations in the estuary is presented to supply new insights into the decontamination of a scenario affected by Naturally Occurring Radioactive Material (NORM) discharges. The cleaning of uranium isotopes from the area has not taken place as rapidly as expected due to leaching from phosphogypsum stacks.An in-depth study using various techniques of analysis, including ²³⁴U/²³⁸U and ²³⁰Th/²³²Th ratios and the decreasing rates of the uranium concentration, enabled a second source of uranium contamination to be discovered. Increased uranium levels due to acid mine drainage from pyrite mines located in the Iberian Pyrite Belt (SW Spain) prevent complete uranium decontamination and, therefore, result in levels nearly twice those of natural background levels.     

探地雷达技术在隧道掘进预报中的应用

以探测实例阐明了探地雷达技术在隧道掘进预报中的应用     

台风"尼伯特"在北部湾海面上减弱分析

通过对2003年台风"尼伯特"周围的风向、风速在铅直方向的垂直变化和垂直速度、散度场等物理量的变化分析,发现台风周围的风向、风速的垂直切变增大和上升运动的迅速减弱改变了台风的暖心结构,是造成台风"尼伯特"在北部湾海面上迅速减弱的主要原因.     

利用MM5模式输出产品制作空气质量预报方法探讨

根据2004年中尺度数值预报模式MM5输出产品和临沂市环境监测中心逐日监测资料建立了各污染物浓度预报方程,在2005年夏季的试报中,该方程的试报效果较差,其预报准确率明显低于其历史拟合率。为了提高预报准确率,利用逐步回归筛选的因子及统计模型研究中的有关数据,探讨了使用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气污染物浓度预报的问题。分析发现,利用卡尔曼滤波方法制作空气质量预报可以取得比较满意的效果。     

Spatial variation in river runoff into a coastal area — An ecological approach

Carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes were used to investigate spatial variation in terrestrial particulate organic matter (POM) input to a coastal area off the Tagus river estuary. Isotopic variation in higher trophic level organisms was also examined, along the coast. This study was carried out in late summer, after a period of 3 months of low river flow. The overall aim was to determine if under such conditions the coastal area is enriched by the river plume and, particularly, if lower secondary productivity should be expected in some areas. Spatial variation was detected as a gradient of decreasing terrestrial input with increasing distance from the river. It was concluded that terrestrial carbon input was also incorporated into higher trophic levels and that organisms with lower mobility are more sensitive to the gradient in terrestrial input. Even in low flow conditions the whole fishing area remained under the influence of the river plume, which still accounted for 24% of the total POM 30 km from the river mouth. Additionally, δ¹⁵N values indicated pollution input from the river Tagus.     

基于神经网络的滑坡变形预测报研究

利用ＢＰ神经网络方法建立了滑坡变形预报模型,在此模型的基础上对几个典型滑坡进行了预报分析,其结果表明用ＢＰ模型进行滑坡短期预报效果较好。