追忆李四光对防震减灾的贡献,以系统整体观指导防震应急

笔者在追忆李四光地震科学和防震减灾指导思想的基础上,提出了以系统整体观指导防震应急的新论点,包括:运用地壳运动整体观研究地震规律;应用地震预测整体观进行地震预测;划分活动性构造体系,研究构造活动性;加强综合监测,研究各种地震前兆和相关的自然变异的发展趋势;圈定地震风险区,制定防震应急预案等.并结合中国的实际情况进行了论述.     

Influence of karst hydrology on water quality management in southeast South Australia

Southeast South Australia has large reserves of potable groundwater, generally close to the surface. European settlement has had a major impact on groundwater quality due to the presence of extensive karst in the unconfined aquifer. Historically, industries such as cheese factories were often sited close to karst features (e.g. caves and sinkholes) because they provided a convenient means of waste disposal. Although most have long since closed, they have left a legacy of pollution plumes of varying sizes. In Mount Gambier, the main regional centre, the presence of both exposed and subterranean karst features provided a perfect system for the disposal of stormwater. Prior to the provision of a sewerage system within Mount Gambier, all toilet and household wastewaters were disposed to ground. These activities and the subsequent problems that began emerging in the 1960s have led to a concerted effort over the last 20 years to change the philosophy of waste disposal and to generate an understanding and responsibility by those who live in the region and depend on groundwater for the major part of their water supply. Mount Gambier's water supply comes from the Blue Lake. Groundwater inflow from a highly karstic Tertiary limestone aquifer provides 90% of the recharge to the Blue Lake. The lake is a high-value resource in a high-risk environment and in order to minimize this risk, a water-quality management plan for the lake is currently being developed.     

扬州市6－7月份天气预报服务业务化系统

从地（市）级气象台的业务工作出发,试图建立通过微机实现的对上接收信息、对外预报服务、对下预报指导的三位一体的天气预报服务业务化系统,以发挥地（市）级气象台在经济建设和防灾减灾中的作用,推动天气预报和服务的现代化建设,把基层气象工作推向一个新的台阶。     

Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.     

On the role of heat flow, lithosphere thickness and lithosphere density on gravitational potential stresses

Gravitational potential stresses (GPSt) are known to play a first-order role in the state of stress of the Earth's lithosphere. Previous studies focussed mainly on crust elevation and structure and little attention has been paid to modelling GPSt using realistic lithospheric structures. The aim of the present contribution is to quantify gravitational potential energies and stresses associated with stable lithospheric domains. In order to model realistic lithosphere structures, a wide variety of data are considered: surface heat flow, chemical depletion of mantle lithosphere, crustal thickness and elevation. A numerical method is presented which involves classical steady-state heat equations to derive lithosphere thickness, geotherm and density distribution, but additionally requires the studied lithosphere to be isostatically compensated at its base. The impact of varying surface and crustal heat flow, topography, Moho depth and crust density on the signs and magnitudes of predicted GPSt is systematically explored. In clear contrast with what is assumed in most previous studies, modelling results show that the density structure of the mantle lithosphere has a significant impact on the value of the predicted GPSt, in particular in the case of thick lithospheres. Using independent information from the literature, the method was applied to get insights in the state of stress of continental domains with contrasting tectono-thermal ages. The modelling results suggest that in the absence of tectonic stresses Phanerozoic and Proterozoic lithospheres are spontaneously submitted to compression whereas Archean lithospheres are in a neutral to slightly tensile stress state. These findings are in general in good agreement with global stress measurements and observed geoid undulations.     

Une approche innovante pour modéliser la biodégradation des composés organochlorés volatils en aquifères poreux

The goal of this study was to develop an innovative chloroethene biodegradation module based on biological, thermodynamical and mechanistic concepts. The biodegradation scheme was based on the postulate that in each part of an aquifer only one degradation mechanism is dominant: the one involving the most energetic electron acceptor. Thus, the selection of the active degradation mechanism was a function of the concentration of different electron acceptors. Modified Monod-type kinetics was used in order to take into account the possible influence of some compounds on the biodegradation of a given organic compound. The numerical model developed was applied to a simple test case, whose results are presented here. To cite this article: F. Nex et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Tracing leachates at waste sites using geophysical and geochemical modelling

Tracing leachates at landfills is usually carried out using either geophysical methods or chemical analyses of groundwater. There are often problems with fingerprinting pollution sources or clarifying the spreading pattern due to a wide variety of possibilities giving similar anomalies. The aims of the project were to evaluate the advantages of combining results from multigeophysical modelling and statistical/chemical modelling in order to identify pollution sources and the spreading pattern and to test a new technique for chemical fingerprinting. The project was carried out at a landfill in central Sweden using geophysical measurements and modelling of CVES, GPR and VLF as well as chemical modelling using M3 (multivariate mixing and mass balance calculations). The results indicate that by combining geophysical modelling and chemical calculations, the possibilities of fingerprinting the origin of pollution as well as delineating the spreading pattern are significantly increased.     

Environmental and health risk assessment in abandoned mining area, Zlata Idka, Slovakia

The Zlata Idka village is a typical mountainous settlement. As a consequence of more than 500 years of mining activity, its environment has been extensively affected by pollution from potentially toxic elements. This paper presents the results of an environmental-geochemical and health research in the Zlata Idka village, Slovakia. Geochemical analysis indicates that arsenic (As) and antimony (Sb) are enriched in soils, groundwater, surface water and stream sediments. The average As and Sb contents are 892 mg/kg and 818 mg/kg in soils, 195 mg/kg and 249 mg/kg in stream sediments, 0.028 mg/l and 0.021 mg/l in groundwater and 0.024 mg/l and 0.034 mg/l in surface water. Arsenic and Sb concentrations exceed upper permissible limits in locally grown vegetables. Within the epidemiological research the As and Sb contents in human tissues and fluids have been observed (blood, urine, nails and hair) in approximately one third of the village’s population (120 respondents). The average As and Sb concentrations were 16.3 μg/l and 3.8 μg/l in blood, 15.8 μg/l and 18.8 μg/l in urine, 3,179 μg/kg and 1,140 μg/kg in nails and 379 μg/kg and 357 μg/kg in hair. These concentrations are comparatively much higher than the average population. Health risk calculations for the ingestion of soil, water, and vegetables indicates a very high carcinogenic risk (>1/1,000) for as content in soil and water. The hazard quotient [HQ=average daily dose (ADD)/reference dose (RfD)] calculation method indicates a HQ>1 for groundwater As and Sb concentrations.     

豫北平原浅层地下水资源可持续开发利用

豫北平原隶属黄河、海河两大流域,在平原区松散岩类中蕴藏着较丰富的地下水.随着工农业和城市化的发展,地下水资源的开发利用程度在逐步升高,合理地开发利用地下水资源的重要性日趋显著.主要论述了浅层含水岩组的特征、水动力条件、开发利用现状及与地下水开采相关的环境地质问题.分析了天然资源量的组成,说明了可采资源量的计算方法,指出有开采潜力区和超采区的分布.针对所存在的问题,提出了浅层地下水资源可持续开发利用的措施.     

煤矿水害多源信息预测方法研究

基于MAPGIS平台,用Visual C＋＋对其进行二次开发,研制了煤矿水害多源信息预测系统.通过对地震、电法、水文地质等多源数据进行处理后,在MAPGIS系统下进行成图、配准和空间定量分析,建立了预测模型.用该系统对煤矿实际资料进行了处理,结果表明其预测结果较传统方法更为准确.