雷暴天气过程中降水结构与闪电活动特征个例研究

为深入分析四川雷暴天气过程中降水和闪电活动特征,运用统计与对比方法,对四川东南部一次雷暴过程中闪电活动及降水结构之间的特征进行研究。结果表明,强降水易发生在低层辐合,高层辐散的流场中,局部地区最大降水强度发生在2~5km高度。降水开始1h后,地闪频数达到最高,地闪主要以负地闪为主,正地闪不活跃。对闪电活动与亮温分布关系知,闪电活动主要发生在低于220K降水云内,闪电活动发生的区域与降水落区一致。对总闪与地闪的分布知,负地闪主要分布在总闪的外围。通过对四川雷暴过程的研究,对雷暴预报有一定的指导意义。     

基于FY-4A卫星和随机森林算法的西藏山南市雷电短临预报方法

针对青藏高原地区雷电短临预报缺乏雷达资料的问题,采用FY-4A卫星多通道数据、欧洲中心第5代再分析资料(ERA5)中的对流指数、闪电定位仪资料等多源监测数据,根据雷电的发生、发展机理,提出了18个关键预报因子,利用随机森林算法建立了适用于西藏山南地区的雷电短临预报模型。统计分析各预报因子在有无雷电天气样本中的概率密度分布与随机森林模型得到的特征重要度指标,结果表明提出的预报因子物理意义明确,建立的模型可信度较高。利用随机森林算法分别对未来10 min、20 min、30 min建立雷电预报模型,并与光流外推预报方法进行对比检验,结果表明：随机森林模型预报效果命中率(POD)、临界成功指数(CSI)均高于光流法,空报率(FAR)也相对较低;未来20 min的随机森林预报模型CSI评分最高,整体预报效果最佳。     

Advances in understanding of the mechanism for generation of earthquake thermal precursors detected by satellites

Stresses building up during an earthquake preparation phase also manifest themselves in the form of a so called increased land surface temperature (LST) leading to a thermal precursor prior to the earthquake event. This phenomenon has now been validated by our observations of short-term thermal anomalies detected by infrared satellite sensors for several recent past earthquakes around the world. The rise in infrared radiance temperature was seen to vary between 5 and 12 °C for different earthquakes. We discuss in this paper different explanations for the generation of such anomalies that have been offered. Emission of gases due to the opening and closure of micropores upon induced stresses and also the participation of ground water have been propounded as a possible cause for generation of thermal anomalies. Seismo-ionosphere coupling, by which gases like radon move to the earth–atmosphere interface and cause air ionization thus bringing about a change in air temperature, relative humidity, etc., has been put forth by some workers. A mechanism of low frequency electromagnetic emission was tested and experimented by scientists with rock masses in stressed conditions as those that exist at tectonic locations. The workers proposed the positive hole pair theory, which received support from several scientific groups. Positive holes (sites of electron deficiency) are activated in stressed rocks from pre-existing yet dormant positive hole pairs (PHPs) and their recombination at rock–air interface leads to a LST rise. A combination of remote sensing detection of rock mechanics behavior with a perception of chemistry and geophysics has been applied to propose the remote sensing rock mechanics theory. Remote sensing detections of such anomalies confirm so far proposed lab theories for such a hotly debated field as earthquake precursor study by providing unbiased observations with consistency in time and space distribution.     

基于雷达反射率因子和雷电定位数据的深度学习雷电预报模型

利用卷积神经网络和门控循环单元（Gated recurrent units ）神经网络,基于雷达反射率因子和雷电定位数据开展了雷电预报研究。首先构建了引用注意力机制的基于卷积神经网络和门控循环单元神经网络的深度学习模型（Attention ConvGRU）;然后将雷达反射率因子数据和对应时间段（6 min）的雷电定位数据处理成图像数据后输入深度学习模型,训练出可预报雷电的模型,包括3种模型：单雷电数据模型、单雷达数据模型和雷电〖CD*2〗雷达双数据模型;最后开展了预报试验和定量评估。综合评估表明,本文建立的雷电预报模型综合预报准确率达到96.74%,虚警率35.83%,关键成功指数（Critical Success Index, CSI）为0.2072。个例分析表明,预报模型对于具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程（A类雷暴）的预报效果优于不具有明显移动趋势的雷暴过程（B类雷暴）,且随着B类雷暴强度减弱模型预报能力逐渐减弱。     

一次雷击事故成因分析及其防御措施

通过对2007年8月7日钦州市某制药厂综合楼遭受一次严重的雷击事故的成因分析,找出其存在的问题和误区,并针对发现的问题提出有效的整改防御措施。     

电源避雷器选型与安装应注意的事项

根据国际电工委员会与国家防雷规范的要求,确定电源避雷器选型与安装的最佳途径和应注意的事项。     

Correlation Between Total Lightning Activity and Precipitation Particle Characteristics Observed from 34 Thunderstorms

A total of 34 thunderstorms around Shanghai and Wuhan of China are analyzed in order to determine the relationship between total lightning activity and precipitation particle characteristics.Precipitation particle concentration data are obtained from the 2A12 product of TRMM/TMI(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission/TRMM Microwave Image) and lightning activity data are from the TRMM/LIS(Lightning Imaging Sensor) and SAFIR3000(Surveillance et Alerte Founder par Interferometric Radioelectirque).On a spatial ...     

人工引发雷电试验及其特征的初步分析

1989年夏季，我们在甘肃永登黑林子地区进行了用拖带接地金属细丝的火箭引发雷电的试验，获得了3次成功。本文分析了这3次引发雷电的放电特征。结果表明，放电是在雷暴云下部正电荷的作用下上行负流光的激发和传播过程，雷电人工引发时的地面电场为6－8kV/m。由一简单物理模式粗略地定量估算出了放电参数：中和电荷量约为12－5．3C,电荷 中心离地高度1．3－2．5km，和甘肃地区雷暴云下部正电荷中心高度范围一致。     

SEARCH FOR CORRELATIVITY OF LIGHTNING(STROKE)WITH ATMOSPHERIC STRATIFICATION FACTORS

In this paper the statistical analysis is carried out on the correlation between lightning strokes andatmospheric stratification factors.It is shown that the total number of strokes in lightning process is mainlydecided by environmental temperature at altitude with the residual instability of 5℃(T_r).The instabilityshould also affect the total number of strokc in lightning process.A forecasting equation of stroke in light-ning process has been deduced and two interesting preliminary conclusions have been obtained.