关于全国地震重点监视防御区制度实施现状、成效之调查、设计的说明

为评估全国地震重点监视防御区制度的实施现状、成效,课题组对相关问题进行了定性和定量研究,定量研究以系列问卷调查为主,包括政府、社区和公众问卷等。本文重点说明了系列问卷调查的设计、抽样以及回收情况,并对问卷调查发现的问题做了简单介绍。     

Actually achieving marine sustainability demands a radical re-think in approach, not 'more of the same'

The UK is committed to meeting a series of ‘high-level marine objectives’ which are required to satisfy national obligations and to meet international commitments for the marine environment. There are more than 16 such international high-level policy driven obligations and commitments, together with more than 18 European and more than 12 of national origin. In the UK, there is an assumption that the current and planned monitoring will provide evidence to demonstrate achievement against these high-level objectives.     

Fisheries mismanagement

We analysed the extent to which European politicians have adhered to scientific recommendations on annual total allowable catches (TACs) from 1987 to 2011, covering most of the period of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP). For the 11 stocks examined, TACs were set higher than scientific recommendations in 68% of decisions. Politically-adjusted TACs averaged 33% above scientifically recommended levels. There was no evidence that the 2002 reform of the CFP improved decision-making, as was claimed at the time. We modelled the effects of such politically-driven decision-making on stock sustainability. Our results suggest that political adjustment of scientific recommendations dramatically increases the probability of a stock collapsing within 40 years.In 2012 European fisheries policy will undergo a once-a-decade reform. Ten years ago radical reforms were promised but the changes failed to improve sustainability. It is likely that the 2012 reform will be similarly ineffective unless decision-making is changed so that catch allocations are based on science rather than politics.     

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.     

Charting the emergence of ‘global water initiatives’ in world water governance

Over the last century, the aperture of water governance has widened beyond local and regional schemes to include a growing number of dynamic organizations and events with a “global” scope. Until recently, little had been written about the historical development of global water governance, institutional connectivity within the field, or key organizational successes and failures as perceived by water experts. This paper provides water scientists, managers, policymakers, and those with an interest in international water issues with an overview of global initiatives. It charts the emergence of a set of institutions and events, referred to as “global water initiatives,” or GWIs, using a survey of water experts and other research. Institutional diversity among GWIs is described by defining four distinct types of initiatives and specific differences in scope and programmatic orientation. This overview also entails the historical paradigms of water management, evaluation of the results of the growth and proliferation of numerous new GWIs in recent decades, and some recommendations for supporting and sustaining GWI efforts in order to foster and improve multilevel water management in the future.     

Policy innovation in a changing climate: Sources,patterns and effects

States have been widely criticized for failing to advance the international climate regime. Many observers now believe that a “new” climate governance is emerging through transnational and/or local forms of action that will eventually plug the resulting governance gaps. Yet states, which remain oddly absent from most discussions of the “new” governance, will remain key players as governance becomes more polycentric. This paper introduces a special issue that explores the ability of states to rise to these interconnected challenges through the analytical prism of policy innovation. It reveals that policy innovation is much more multi-dimensional than is often thought; it encompasses three vital activities: invention (centering on the ‘source’ of new policy elements), diffusion (that produces different ‘patterns’ of policy adoption), and the evaluation of the ‘effects’ that such innovations create in reality. The papers, which range from qualitative case studies to large ‘n’ quantitative studies, offer new insights into the varied roles that states play in relation to all three.They show, for instance that: the policy activity of states has risen dramatically in the past decade; that state innovation is affected to similar degrees by internal and external factors; and that policies that offer flexibility to target groups on how to meet policy goals are most effective but that voluntary reporting requirements are ineffective. This paper draws upon these and many other insights to offer a much more nuanced reflection on the future of climate governance; one that deservedly puts states at the front and center of analysis.     

Towards a theory of targeting

A representative economic model is used to analyze local policies to reestablish full employment. It addresses three types of barriers: 1. Rigid wages, 2. Occupational (or industrial) immobility, and 3. Geographic immobility. These factors are considered in the framework of three types of policies: 1. Laissez-faire, 2. Narrowly targeted employment incentives, and 3. Broadly targeted incentives. The paper concludes that the usefulness of the abstract model will depends upon the ability of local development officials to combine the implications of the model with information about the local economic development narrative. In turn, the narrative depends upon an in-depth local knowledge of history, institutions, practices and personalities.     

The challenges of the landing obligation in EU fisheries

A feasibility study was conducted on the impacts of the new Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) rules requiring catches in regulated fisheries to be landed and counted against quotas of each Member State - the landing obligation (LO), and that catch of species subject to the LO below a minimum conservation reference size (MCRS) be restricted to purposes other than direct human consumption. The aim was to estimate the level of discarded fish likely to be covered by the new rules, the impact of the rules on EU fisheries and the regulatory challenges and responses to them. Data from EU's Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee on Fisheries (STECF) database were analysed to estimate the volume of unwanted catches produced by EU fisheries. Views were sought from policy officials and fisheries scientists through a questionnaire on the implications of the LO and the control of fisheries across Member States, and the potential adjustments that might be needed. Findings show that 11% (44,000 t) of the total catches of EU countries from which data were available are of fish under MCRS. The species with the highest volume of undersized discards associated with the lowest quota, which would potentially restrict the fishing opportunities for other quota species (i.e. choke species), are plaice and haddock with 18,000 and 14,000 t of undersized fish respectively, followed by whiting and cod with 5000 and 6000 t of undersized fish respectively. Discards data shows that the Netherlands, United Kingdom, France and Belgium will be most affected by landings for non-human markets. Findings also show that existing infrastructure at landing ports in all Member States is limited because there are currently limited facilities in place to handle animal by-products produced by the catching sector. Policy officials maintained that while they could support the fishing industry through funding programmes, it is the responsibility of fishers to ensure they have the right infrastructure to handle unwanted catches. The expectation is that the LO combined with the restriction to non-human consumption purposes will encourage fishers to internalise the costs of catching unwanted fish and motivate them to avoid unwanted catch. This will be realised if sufficient flexibility is given to fishers to find their own solutions to reducing unwanted catches. It is concluded that gear technology measures exist to enable the regulated fisheries to increase gear selectivity.     

'There is a tide': An examination of the evolution of New Zealand Coastal Policy Statements

Abstract:   In this paper the proposed New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement is set within the context of its Resource Management Act legislative framework and in terms of the evolution of the fundamental influence of policy statements on coastal management in New Zealand. This discussion is coupled with an examination of the development of strong policy directions in the proposed statement and the potential impact of giving effect to these policies on the regional and unitary authorities tasked with this responsibility.