地面加热与高原低涡和对流系统相互作用的一次个例研究

本文利用NCEP-FNL再分析资料、FY-2E卫星TBB数据、CMORPH降水资料,通过热力学和动力学诊断分析并结合中尺度天气模式WRF的数值模拟试验,研究了2012年6月下旬青藏高原一次东移对流系统的生成发展机制以及与地面加热相互作用的物理过程。结果表明,高原中西部地面感热加热是高原低涡生成、发展和东移的主导因子。而东移的高原低涡通过加强偏北、偏南气流形成的辐合带,进而触发高原东部对流系统的生成。同时,高原对流系统降水产生的凝结潜热释放也加强了东移高原低涡的强度,这表明地面加热与高原低涡和对流系统之间存在一种正反馈机制。数值试验结果进一步表明,除了适当的背景环流外,高原地面潜热通量能够增强中低层大气的不稳定性,为对流系统的发生发展积累能量,造成有利于对流降水的热力环境。     

大气季节内振荡对热带气旋活动影响的研究进展

近30年来，大气季节内振荡对热带气旋活动影响的研究已逐渐成为人们关注的焦点，并取得了显著的进展。就大气季节内振荡对热带气旋生成、路径及登陆的影响进行概述，并揭示了这种影响的主要机制。同时回顾了与季节内振荡密切相关的季风槽活动对热带气旋的影响。在此基础上简单讨论了该领域中存在的问题及未来研究前景，并提出当前该研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题。     

遥感与地球的全球性观测

本文共分三部分。第一部分简述了地球的全球性观测的目的，然后，从最早的气象卫星说起，再讲到美国的陆地卫星和世界各国发射的有关卫星，接着叙述了有关全球性观测的若干国际活动和美国计划中的地球观测系统（ＥＯＳ）。第二部分介绍了遥感技术与全球性观测发展中的一些曲折过程。第三部分论述了中国在全球性观测方面所做的贡献及前景。     

Geomorphological characterisation and interpretation of a mid-latitude glacier-like form: Hellas Planitia, Mars

We describe and interpret the surface terrain types associated with a widely-reported ∼4 km long, mid-latitude martian viscous flow feature (VFF). The feature is located in the southern hemisphere, on the poleward-facing rim of a ∼60 km-diameter crater in eastern Hellas Planitia. High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) images, analysed in both 2D and 3D, reveal that the upper margin of the feature is bounded by steep (∼30°) headwalls, typically some tens of metres high, that are formed from unconsolidated material and characterised by a series of slope-parallel linear incisions. Below these incised headwalls, the feature flows at a general angle of ∼10° from a broad upper basin to a confined lower tongue that is bounded by a nested sequence of elongate raised ridges. These characteristics are typical of several VFFs in the region and are strikingly similar to moraine-bounded valley glaciers on Earth, and we sub-classify this feature as a ‘glacier-like form’ (GLF)¹. The GLF comprises five distinctive surface terrain types that contrast sharply with surface characteristics outside its bounding moraines. Four of these terrains (scaly terrain, polygonized terrain, linear terrain and mound-and-tail terrain) are located within the GLF’s innermost bounding moraine, while the fifth (rectilinear-ridge terrain) is located between its frontal moraines. These terrains are mapped, characterised and associated with possible mechanisms of formation to draw inferences about the GLF’s glaciology and glacial history. This analysis suggests that the GLF reached its maximal extent in the geologically-recent past, and that it may have been partially wet-based at that time. Subsequent to this phase, the GLF experienced an extended period of general recession that has been punctuated by several episodes of still-stand or advance. Currently, the GLF’s basin appears to be composed of a lower zone that is dominated by an exposed former glacier bed and an upper zone that may still contain a now-degraded and dust-mantled viscous mass, similar to many partially-glacierized basins on Earth.     

Constraints on martian lobate debris apron evolution and rheology from numerical modeling of ice flow

Radar observations in the Deuteronilus Mensae region by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter have constrained the thickness and dust concentration found within mid-latitude ice deposits, providing an opportunity to more accurately estimate the rheology of ice responsible for the formation of lobate debris aprons based on their apparent age of ∼100 Myr. We developed a numerical model simulating ice flow under martian conditions using results from ice deformation experiments, theory of ice grain growth based on terrestrial ice cores, and observational constraints from radar profiles and laser altimetry. By varying the ice grain size, the ice temperature, the subsurface slope, and the initial ice volume we determine the combination of parameters that best reproduce the observed LDA lengths and thicknesses over a period of time comparable to the apparent ages of LDA surfaces (90-300 Myr). We find that an ice temperature of 205 K, an ice grain size of 5 mm, and a flat subsurface slope give reasonable ages for many LDAs in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars. Assuming that the ice grain size is limited by the grain boundary pinning effect of incorporated dust, these results limit the dust volume concentration to less than 4%. However, assuming all LDAs were emplaced by a single event, we find that there is no single combination of grain size, temperature, and subsurface slope which can give realistic ages for all LDAs, suggesting that some or all of these variables are spatially heterogeneous. Based on our model we conclude that the majority of northern mid-latitude LDAs are composed of clean (?4 vol%), coarse (?1 mm) grained ice, but regional differences in either the amount of dust mixed in with the ice, or in the presence of a basal slope below the LDA ice must be invoked. Alternatively, the ice temperature and/or timing of ice deposition may vary significantly between different mid-latitude regions. Either eventuality can be tested with future observations.     

Predictions of MESSENGER Neutron Spectrometer measurements for Mercury's north polar region

From radar images of Mercury's poles and MESSENGER Neutron Spectrometer (NS) measurements obtained during the spacecraft's flybys of Mercury, predictions of neutron count rates and their uncertainties are calculated for Mercury's north polar region as of the end of the MESSENGER primary orbital mission. If Mercury's poles contain large amounts of water ice, as has been suggested on the basis of the radar data, then during the one-year-long orbital mission the NS should detect signals indicative of excess polar hydrogen with a significance of at least 4σ, where σ is the standard deviation derived from Poisson counting statistics. If the polar deposits are not enriched with hydrogen, but are dominated by other elements, such as sulfur, then the MESSENGER neutron measurements should be able to confirm the absence of deposits having surface concentrations in excess of 50 wt% H₂O on permanently shadowed floors of craters near Mercury's north pole. Because of the large spatial footprint of the NS data, individual polar deposits will not be spatially resolved, but longitudinal asymmetries may be detected if residual systematic uncertainties are sufficiently low.     

太阳黑子本影振荡的周期测量

本影振荡是出现在太阳黑子内的一种常见现象,精确测定它们的振荡周期对于理解黑子的结构和演化有着重要意义。应用快速傅里叶变换方法对空间望远镜HINODE在2007年5月1日观测的活动区AR10953内的黑子本影数据进行了细致的分析,结果发现在该活动区本影内存在一种典型的3 min振荡,其振荡周期约为154 s。     

Analysis of the rainfall variability and change in the Republic of Benin (West Africa)

ABSTRACT

The temporal variation and trends of annual rainfall distribution in Benin were examined using data from 1940 to 2015 at six meteorological stations and three raingauges stationed throughout the country. The nonparametric modified Mann-Kendal (MK) and Levene tests were applied to detect trends and heteroscedasticity, respectively. For six of the time series, no significant trends were detected. A Bayesian multiple change points detection approach was applied to the rainfall time series, and most (six of nine) exhibited abrupt change points, corresponding to the alternation between wet (before 1968 and after 1990) and dry (1969–1990) periods. No significant trends or breakpoints and changes in the variance were observed for the spatial average rainfall time series. Seven modified MK trend tests were applied; the trends are affected by the selected MK method and rainfall statistics. Oceanic and/or atmospheric influences on the rainfall in Benin were examined by investigating the correlation between the precipitation time series and several indices. Negative seasonal correlations were determined for the North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Niño3, while positive seasonal correlations were observed for the Southern Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation and Dipole Mode Index.     

Thermal convection in differentially rotating systems

Abstract

The onset of convection in a cylindrical fluid annulus is analyzed in the case when the cylindrical walls are rotating differentially, a temperature gradient in the radial direction is applied, and the centrifugal force dominates over gravity. The small gap approximation is used and no-slip conditions on the cylindrical walls are assumed. It is found that over a considerable range of the parameter space either convection rolls aligned with the axis of rotation or rolls in the perpendicular (azimuthal) direction are preferred. It is shown that by a suitable redefinition of parameters, results for finite amplitude Taylor vortices and for convection rolls in the presence of shear can be applied to the present problem. Weakly nonlinear results for transverse rolls in a Couette flow indicate the possibility of subcritical bifurcation for Prandtl numbers P less than 0.82. Heat and momentum transports are derived as functions of P and the problem of interaction between transverse and longitudinal rolls is considered. The relevance of the analysis for problems of convection in planetary and stellar atmospheres is briefly discussed.     

2021年夏季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

2021年夏季我国天气气候异常特征突出,极端天气气候事件多,东部主要多雨区在我国北方,降水的季节内变化显著,华南前汛期开始偏晚、江淮流域梅雨和华北雨季开始偏早.东亚大气环流季节内变化对降水异常的空间分布影响较大.6月,东北冷涡活动频繁,导致东北及邻近区域降水异常偏多,黑龙江、嫩江流域发生严重汛情;东北冷涡的异常活跃可能...