西藏地区强降雪过程的波包分布及传播特征

利用NCEP/NCAR高度场的再分析资料,通过波包传播诊断方法(WPD),对2005年10月19~23日西藏地区中东部及南部边缘地区一次大范围强降雪天气过程进行波包分布与波能传播特征分析。结果表明:500hPa高度场的波包分布和传播特征很好地反映此次过程;强降雪天气发生在波包大值区域内而且反映了过程的爆发和消亡;波包的分布特征与强对流天气的发生状况是一致的;波包的移动路径很好地反映了扰动能量的传播。此次过程是“积累-释放”的三次循环。     

Observation and study on the whole process of cloud-to-ground lightning using narrowband radio interferometer

A narrowband radio interferometer has been developed and used to locate the entire sources of VHF radiations from a negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning discharge which contains 19 strokes. This system uses five antennas to form an array consisting of short- and long-baselines along two or- thogonal directions. The system error which comes from frequency conversion is reduced by phase detection through direct high frequency amplifying. An interactive graphic analysis procedure is used to remove the fringe ambiguities which exist inherently in interferometry and to determine the direction of lightning radiation sources in two dimensions (azimuth and elevation) as a function of time at a time resolution of microsecond orders. With the developed system, the whole progression process in time and space of a lightning flash can be reconstructed. In this paper, combining the synchronous data of electric filed change and VHF radiation, the whole processes of an example negative CG flash have been studied in detail. It is found that the preliminary breakdown event of the CG flash started from negative charge region and exhibited firstly a downward pregression and then an upward propagation. There were very intense and continuous radiations during stepped leaders which became much stronger when the first return stroke began. In contrast, there were less and only discrete radiations during dart leaders. Stepped leader and dart leader may transform to each other depending on the state of the ionization of the path. The progression speed of initial stepped leaders was about 105 ms?1, while that was about 4.1×106 and 6.0×106 ms?1 for dart leaders and dart-stepped leaders, respectively. M events produced hook-shaped field changes accompanied by active burst of radiations at their begin- nings. Followed these active radiation processes, M events appeared to contact finally into conducting main discharge channels. The mean progression speed of M events was about 7×107 ms?1, greater than that of the dart leaders and dart-step leaders. K events and attempted leaders were essentially the same as dart leaders except that they could not reach the ground and initiate return strokes.     

Evaluation of Estrogenic Activity and Measurement of EDCs in Wastewater Treatment Plants

1IntroductionDuringthe past several years,concern hasincreasedover the potential pollution of watershed by estrogeniccompounds,including steroidal hormones fromhumanand ani mal sources.Effluents from wastewater treat-ment plants are sources of endocrine-d…     

Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption

In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10^–6/yr, 1.26×10^–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 10⁴ years is (1.0×10^–3, 6.7×10^–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.     

MathCAD在地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用

地质模拟正从一维、二维技术向三维技术发展,需要分析和处理的数据成倍甚至上百倍增长.随着计算机技术的快速发展,数据分析和处理的速度也随之快速增长,但运用常规的编程来分析和处理这些数据费时又费力.而MathCAD具有解决这一问题的强大的数据分析、处理功能和仿真功能,将MathCAD应用于地质模拟的数据分析和处理中是十分必要的和可行的.本文简要介绍了MathCAD的功能和其在各类地质模拟的数据分析和处理中的应用.     

石梁河水库自然地理概况与泥沙淤积特征

1988年,我们对石梁河水库进行了水下地形及泥沙淤积厚度测量,实地调查研究结果;对建坝以来的效益充分肯定的同时,对潜在的地震危害性、库内淤积严重、泥沙淤积特征等提出研究讨论,以引起足够的重视。     

吉林省桦甸市隆兴铁矿床深部地质特征

隆兴铁矿赋存于太古宙夹皮沟岩群三道沟岩组和腰抢子片麻岩中。认为矿床成因类型是属于受变质(火山沉积)铁硅建造铁矿。富矿部分则是混合岩化热液作用,使铁发生迁移而富集的。确定三道沟组内的火山铁硅质沉积建造岩层是寻找此类型矿床的地层标志,而地球物理标志是地面磁异常强度在1 000 n T以上的面积性异常即为矿致异常。     

延安丘陵区黄土雨滴溅蚀过程模拟

为揭示延安丘陵区黄土雨滴溅蚀特征及其演变过程,选取晚更新世原状黄土为研究对象,利用自制的雨径、雨强可控的单雨滴模拟试验装置,对边坡浅表层采集的原状黄土进行雨滴击溅侵蚀试验,研究降雨强度和降雨历时对原状黄土侵蚀特征的影响规律。结果表明: ①雨滴连续击打作用下,原状黄土表面逐渐形成一近似圆形的溅蚀坑,溅蚀坑由浅变深、由小变大,侵蚀深度随降雨历时的发展过程可描述为快速增长阶段(0~10 min)、缓慢增长阶段(10~40 min)和稳定发展阶段(40~60 min)。②侵蚀深度、侵蚀破坏直径及侵蚀扩散直径随降雨历时发展过程符合幂函数型增长,0~10 min为侵蚀变形主要增长阶段,降雨强度越大,土壤侵蚀作用越显著,0~10 min阶段的侵蚀深度占总侵蚀深度比例可达81%以上; 降雨历时约10 min后,溅蚀面上横向侵蚀范围基本趋于稳定状态,侵蚀深度、侵蚀破坏直径及侵蚀扩散直径均随降雨强度呈正相关,且侵蚀扩散直径D约为侵蚀破坏直径D0的2.71~3.55倍。③强降雨是诱发黄土边坡发生侵蚀灾害和水土流失的重要影响因素,建议采用坡面植绿、加筋和防排水等防护措施,增强坡面抗侵蚀能力,降低黄土边坡浅层水蚀灾害发生。研究成果可为黄土地区降雨侵蚀灾害防治提供参考。     

浅析数字摄影测量在1∶500地形图测绘中的应用

数字摄影测量,应用计算机技术、数字影像处理、影像匹配、模式识别等理论与方法,以计算机视觉代替人眼的立体观测,其产品与中间数据的记录以及处理的原始资料均是数字的,较之常规的(传统的)数字产品的生产方法,具有自动化程度高、速度快、成果多样化等优点。两次外业和两次内业,是∶地形图数字摄影测量的主要作业流程,第二次外业调绘作为1500数字摄影测量的主要外业工作与常规调绘方法有一定的区别。∶地形图数字摄影测量适合于1500大面积数字化测图。     

Settlement prediction by spatial-temporal random process using Asaoka's method

A methodology was presented for observation-based settlement prediction with consideration of the spatial correlation structure of soil. The spatial correlation is introduced among the settlement model parameters and the settlements at various points are spatially correlated through these geotechnical parameters, which naturally describe the phenomenon. The method is based on Bayesian estimation by considering both prior information, including spatial correlation and observed settlement, to search for the best estimates of the parameters at any arbitrary points on the ground. Within the Bayesian framework, the optimised selection of auto-correlation distance by Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) is also proposed. The application of the proposed approach in consolidation settlement prediction using Asaoka's method is presented in this paper. Several case studies were carried out using simulated settlement data to investigate the performance the proposed approach. It is concluded that the accuracy of the settlement prediction can be improved by taking into account the spatial correlation structure and the proposed approach gives the rational prediction of the settlement at any location at any time with quantified uncertainty.