Ensemble Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Based on CNOP-P Method: A Case Study of WRF Model and Two Typhoons

In this paper, we set out to study the ensemble forecast for tropical cyclones. The case study is based on the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter (CNOP-P) method and the WRF model to improve the prediction accuracy for track and intensity, and two different typhoons are selected as cases for analysis. We first select perturbed parameters in the YSU and WSM6 schemes, and then solve CNOP-Ps with simulated annealing algorithm for single parameters as well as the combination of multiple parameters. Finally, perturbations are imposed on default parameter values to generate the ensemble members. The whole proposed procedures are referred to as the Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE). We also conduct two experiments, which are control forecast and ensemble forecast, termed Ctrl and perturbed-physics ensemble (PPhyE) respectively, to demonstrate the performance for contrast. In the article, we compare the effects of three experiments on tropical cyclones in aspects of track and intensity, respectively. For track, the prediction errors of PPE are smaller. The ensemble mean of PPE filters the unpredictable situation and retains the reasonably predictable components of the ensemble members. As for intensity, ensemble mean values of the central minimum sea-level pressure and the central maximum wind speed are closer to CMA data during most of the simulation time. The predicted values of the PPE ensemble members included the intensity of CMA data when the typhoon made landfall. The PPE also shows uncertainty in the forecast. Moreover, we also analyze the track and intensity from physical variable fields of PPE. Experiment results show PPE outperforms the other two benchmarks in track and intensity prediction.     

Simple and highly accurate formulas for the computation of Transverse Mercator coordinates from longitude and isometric latitude

A conformal approximation to the Transverse Mercator (TM) map projection, global in longitude λ and isometric latitude q, is constructed. New formulas for the point scale factor and grid convergence are also shown. Assuming that the true values of the TM coordinates are given by conveniently truncated Gauss–Krüger series expansions, we use the maximum norm of the absolute error to measure globally the accuracy of the approximation. For a Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone the accuracy equals 0.21  mm, whereas for the region of the ellipsoid bounded by the meridians  ±20° the accuracy is equal to 0.3  mm. Our approach is based on a four-term perturbation series approximation to the radius r(q) of the parallel q, with a maximum absolute deviation of 0.43  mm. The small parameter of the power series expansion is the square of the eccentricity of the ellipsoid. This closed approximation to r(q) is obtained by solving a regularly perturbed Cauchy problem with the Poincaré method of the small parameter. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

改进的一维分形海面模型在分层海面电磁波透射问题中的应用

运用微扰法研究了平面波入射分层介质粗糙面的电磁波透射问题,采用改进的一维分形海面模型模拟实际的分层海面,推导出了平面波入射时的透射系数计算公式.通过数值计算得到了HH极化透射系数随散射角的变化曲线,讨论了中间介质介电常数和厚度、摩擦风速和入射波频率对透射系数的影响,得到改进的一维分形分层海面透射系数的基本特征、分区特征和随频率变化的特征,结果表明透射系数近似具有"量子化"特征.     

Wavefield dependency on virtual shifts in the source location

The wavefield dependence on a virtual shift in the source location can provide information helpful in velocity estimation and interpolation. However, the second‐order partial differential equation (PDE) that relates changes in the wavefield form (or shape) to lateral perturbations in the source location depends explicitly on lateral derivatives of the velocity field. For velocity models that include lateral velocity discontinuities this is problematic as such derivatives in their classical definition do not exist. As a result, I derive perturbation partial differential wave equations that are independent of direct velocity derivatives and thus, provide possibilities for wavefield shape extrapolation in complex media. These PDEs have the same structure as the wave equation with a source function that depends on the background (original source) wavefield. The solutions of the perturbation equations provide the coefficients of a Taylor's series type expansion for the wavefield. The new formulas introduce changes to the background wavefield only in the presence of lateral velocity variation or in general terms velocity variations in the perturbation direction. The accuracy of the representation, as demonstrated on the Marmousi model, is generally good.     

早三叠世海相碳酸盐碳同位素研究进展

早三叠世是地球发展史上的特殊时期,代表了古、中生代过渡时期的生态重建与复苏.随着各种“异常环境事件”信息在近年陆续被揭示,早三叠世地质学研究成为地学界新的热点领域.海相碳酸盐碳同位素组成记录了碳循环的变化,是理解重大突变期的生态环境事件和地球过程的重要切入点.最近10年的研究表明,过去集中在二叠纪/三叠纪界线附近发现的“负漂移”现象只能代表海洋化学持续了约5 Ma的动荡局面的开始,直到中三叠世才趋于平稳,高频率、大幅度的整体演变型式已很难用过去提出的机制进行解释.全球范围内缺乏可精确对比性以及高达+8‰的正向极值的成因等,都是值得深入思考的问题.     

基于偶极弯曲波频散的横波慢度径向分布反演

本文针对地层横波慢度径向分层模型,分析了地层横波慢度的径向非均匀性对弯曲波频散的影响.基于径向非均匀与均匀模型之间弯曲波频散的差异,结合微扰法和Backus-Gilbert(BG)理论建立了反演横波慢度径向分布的方程,求取了地层横波慢度的径向分布.在无噪声和参数误差时,反演结果较好地反映了实际地层横波慢度的径向分布,当井孔流体或井外地层纵波慢度的选取误差在10%内变化时,反演结果基本保持不变;存在信噪比(SNR)为20 dB(信号的功率为噪声的100倍)或10 dB(信号的功率为噪声的10倍)噪声时,反演结果没有发生明显的改变,其相对误差基本控制在10%以内,可见噪声对反演结果的影响不大.以上反演结果说明,本文采用的结合微扰法和BG理论的反演方法来估测地层横波慢度的径向分布时,具有很好的鲁棒性,可以被用于现场了解井壁周围的地层性质.     

Lorenz 96模式中三种目标观测方法的有效性比较

目标观测是有效提升观测效能和观测质量的一种观测策略,其核心部分是敏感区的识别。本文在Lorenz-96模式上比较了奇异向量法(SVs)、集合变换卡尔曼滤波法(ETKF)和条件非线性最优扰动法(CNOP)识别敏感区的优劣,并尝试揭示ETKF方法性能不稳定的原因与机制。试验结果表明:在312h内的不同预报时刻,CNOP方法识别的敏感区范围较小且对预报效果的提升率最高;SVs方法识别的敏感区对72h内的预报有较好的改进,但72h后改进程度急剧下降,到120h后基本失效;ETKF方法识别的敏感区在72h内不如其他方法的效果好。此外,在ETKF方法识别的敏感区与随机选取的敏感区对比中发现,由于ETKF方法操作时采用顺序观测资料处理方案搜寻敏感区,本质上忽略了观测资料间的相关性,导致ETKF方法识别出的敏感区并不一定是全局信号方差最大的区域,对预报效果的改善有限,这也说明了如何优化敏感区搜寻方案是提高ETKF方法效能的关键。     

On the Role of Perturbation Potential Energy in Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: Current Status and Prospects

The East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) exerts considerable influences on the climate in China. Studying kinetic energy sources of monsoon circulation from the perspective of energetics is critical important to understand monsoon variability and relevant mechanism. The traditional theory of Available Potential Energy (APE) and relevant studies were reviewed, and some limitations of the APE theory in studying regional effective energy cycle and transformation were discussed. A new theory of Perturbation Potential Energy (PPE) of atmospheric circulation, which can be applicable to the study of energy cycle and transformation of regional circulation systems,was introduced. The advantage of the PPE theory in studying regional effective energy cycle and conversion was discussed, and some advances in the role of the PPE in variability of the EASM were further reviewed. At the end, some important scientific open questions about the application of the PPE to investigations of EASM variability in future were summarized as follows: spatial-temporal characteristics and dominant modes of PPE at seasonal-interannual timescale over the EASM region, and their relationships with the EASM and lower boundary forcings; the physical processes and relevant mechanisms on how lower boundary forcings affecting the kinetic energy of EASM circulation through the key link of PPE; the preceding PPE signals associated with EASM variations, relevant underlying mechanisms, and predictability of the preceding PPE signals as well.     

An Analysis of the Lifetimes of Large Elliptical Orbits of Space Debris

The lunisolar perturbation is the principal factor that causes variation in the orbit of a GTO (geosychronous transfer orbit) space debris. In the present article the analytical expression of the long-periodic term of the altitude of the GTO orbital perigee caused by the lunisolar perturbation is derived, and the basic characteristics of the variation of the perigee caused by the lunisolar perturbation are analyzed. A method of selecting a launch window that will help to improve the space debris situation is given, and its correctness is tested and verified through simulation calculation.     

Solutions to the stochastic transport problem of O(σ V N ) for conservative solutes

A recursive perturbation solution to the eulerian transport problem for a conservative solute in a random conductivity field is reported. The stochastic concentration is given to arbitrary order inσ _ν, the variance of fluctuating velocity. The result gives the stochastic concentration as a perturbation to the deterministic concentration for constant mean flow. The closed form solution is easy to implement numerically via FFT.