地市级专业气象预报服务系统

利用9210传输的气象资料,通过计算预报因子和预报对象间的相关系数,挑选预报因子,建立多因子权重回归方程,用于气象要素、森林火险气象等级、城镇火险气象等级、空气环境质量等级预报。此外,根据调查指标和实践经验,建立了医疗气象、储运气象、商业气象预报判据。     

一次冷锋过境过程的中尺度通量观测

根据Taylor假定 ,通过对铁塔定点观测冷锋过境湍流资料的谱分析 ,分离出其中尺度过程 ,从而计算出其中尺度通量 .计算结果的分析表明 ,在强背景风场条件下 ,湍流动量输送占据绝对优势 ;当背景风较弱时 ,中尺度动量通量不能被忽视 ,它甚至强于湍流动量通量 .而中尺度感热通量的强弱受多种因素的制约 .总的说来 ,冷锋后的中尺度感热通量大大强于湍流感热通量 .对于湍流通量参数化计算的理论分析表明 ,在较长的时间尺度进行湍流通量参数化时 ,有必要考虑因中尺度扰动而产生的修正 .合理的通量计算参数化方案需要全面包含湍流通量、中尺度通量以及中尺度过程对湍流通量的修正     

A CONVECTIVE RAINFALL ESTIMATE TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED BY NSMC OF CHINA

In order to reveal the relation between strong convective cloud characteristics and rainfall rate,over 20000 hourly raingauge data from 333 weather stations and the corresponding 4000 convectivecloud infrared images of GMS-4 during the period of 1992—1994 in Henan,Hubei and SichuanProvinces were studied.The results show that cloud top temperature,temperature gradient,thegrowth of cloud,overshooting top and the normalized distance between a cloud covering pixels and thecluster center have certain relations to cloud precipitation.These relations can vary with differentgeographical regions.Based on the study above,a convective rainfall estimation technique wasdeveloped by the scientists in National Satellite Meteorological Center of China.Its average error is30% for daily precipitation with a correlation coefficient of 0.69.     

多层递阶回归分析

在经典多层递阶预报模型中,预报因子对模型的贡献大小主要取决于各因子间的相对量值差异,而与预报因子本身的实际预报价值关系甚微。本文针对这一缺陷,提出了一种回归分析与多层递阶方法相结合的统计预报模型——多层递阶回归分析。它既摒弃了经典统计理论中的固定参数预报模型,又较好地消除了由于变量间相对量值差异所造成的贡献差异,充分体现了高相关因子在预报模型中的重要作用。实例计算结果表明,多层递阶回归分析方法的预报效果明显优于经典多层递阶方法和回归分析。     

Suspended sediment yield and metal contamination in a river catchment affected by El Niño events and gold mining activities: the Puyango river basin,southern Ecuador

The suspended sediment yield and the transfer of polluted sediment are investigated for the Puyango river basin in southern Ecuador. This river system receives metal (Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb and Zn) and cyanide pollution generated by mining, and is associated with large‐scale hydrological variability, which is partly governed by El Niño events. Field sampling and statistical modelling methods are used to quantify the amount of mine tailings that is discharged into the basin. Annual suspended sediment yields are estimated using a novel combination of the suspended sediment rating method and Monte Carlo simulations, which allow for propagation of the uncertainties of the calculations that lead to final load estimates. Geochemical analysis of suspended and river bed sediment is used to assess the dispersion and long‐term fate of contaminated sediment within the river catchment. Knowledge of the inter‐ and intra‐annual variation in suspended sediment yield is shown to be crucial for judging the importance of mining discharges, and the extent to which the resultant pollution is diluted by river flows. In wet years, polluted sediments represent only a very small proportion of the yield estimates, but in dry years the proportion can be significant. Evidence shows that metal contaminated sediments are stored in the Puyango river bed during low flows. Large flood events flush this sediment periodically, both on an annual cycle associated with the rainy season, and also related to El Niño events. Therefore, environmental impacts of mining‐related discharges are more likely to be severe during dry years compared with wet years, and in the dry season rather than the wet season. The hydrological consequences of El Niño events are shown to depend upon the extent to which these events penetrate inland. It is, thus, shown that the general conclusion that El Niño events can significantly affect suspended sediment yields needs evaluation with respect to the particular way in which those events affect a given catchment. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transit station or destination? Attendance patterns,movements and abundance estimate of humpback whales off west South Africa from photographic and genotypic matching

Humpback whales Megaptera novaeangliae found off west South Africa (WSA) are known to display an atypical migration that may include temporary residency and feeding during spring and summer. At a regional scale there is uncertainty about how these whales relate to the greater West African Breeding Stock B as a whole, with evidence both for and against its division into two substocks. A database containing sighting information of humpback whales intercepted by boat in the WSA region from 1983 to 2008 was compiled. It included a total of 1 820 identification images of ventral tail flukes and lateral views of dorsal fins. After systematic within- and between-year matching of images of usable quality, it yielded 154 different individuals identified by tail flukes (TF), 230 by left dorsal fins (LDF), and 237 by right dorsal fins (RDF). Microsatellite (MS) matching of 216 skin biopsies yielded 156 individuals. By linking all possible sightings of the same individuals using all available identification features, the periodicity and seasonality of 281 individual whales were examined. In all, 60 whales were resighted on different days of which 44 were between different calendar years. The most resightings for one individual was 11 times, seen in six different years, and the longest interval between first and last sightings was about 18 years. A resighting rate of 15.6% of whales at intervals of a year or more indicates long-term fidelity to the region. Shorter intervals of 1–6 months between sequential sightings in the same year may suggest temporary residency. The TF image collection from WSA was compared to TF collections from four other regions, namely Gabon, Cabinda (Angola), Namibia and the Antarctic Humpback Whale Catalogue (AHWC). Three matches were detected between WSA (in late spring or summer) and Gabon (in winter), confirming direct movement between these regions. The capture–recapture data of four different identification features (TF, RDF, LDF and MS) from six successive subsets of data from periods with the highest collection effort (2001–2007) were used to calculate the number of whales that utilise the region, using both closed- and open-population models. Dorsal fins have never been used to estimate abundance for humpback whales, so the different identification features were evaluated for potential biases. This revealed 9–14% incidence of missed matches (false negatives) when using dorsal fins that would result in an overestimate, whereas variation in individual fluke-up behaviour may lower estimates by as much as 57–66% due to heterogeneity of individual capture probability. Taking into consideration the small dataset and low number of recaptures, the most consistent and precise results were obtained from a fully time-dependent version of the Jolly-Seber open-population model, with annual survival fixed at 0.96, using the MS dataset. This suggests that the WSA feeding assemblage during the months of spring and summer (September–March) of the study period numbered about 500 animals. The relationship of these whales to those (perhaps strictly migratory) that may occur in other seasons of the year, and their links to possible migratory routes and other feeding or breeding areas, remain uncertain.     

Abundance of the Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin Tursiops aduncus off south-west Mauritius

The abundance of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins Tursiops aduncus off the south-west coast of Mauritius was estimated using capture-mark-recapture modelling. Over the past two decades this population has been subjected to ongoing anthropogenic disturbance in the form of extensive coastal development. Furthermore, daily dolphin tourism, which started in 1998, has rapidly increased in intensity. Identification photographs were collected between April 2008 and June 2010 from dolphins occurring along a 30 km length of coast where a dolphin tourism industry is concentrated. A total of 137 groups were encountered over 229 survey days. Over 5 000 photographs were taken, from which 35 individuals were considered to be sufficiently distinctively marked to use in mark-recapture analyses. The majority (85.7%) were seen more than once and resighting frequencies indicated a resident population. Three newborn calves were recorded during the study. Open population models produced abundance estimates of <100 individuals in the population. These results will be used to make recommendations for the conservation and management of this small, resident population, which is a valuable economic resource for the island but is currently under threat from high levels of human activity.     

Effects of sample size on numerical estimates of diel prey consumption in a fish population

Numerical data based on stomach content analysis of the zooplanktivorous freshwater fish, Retropinna semoni, were used to examine the effect of fish sample size on mean counts of dominant prey items. Fifty adult R. semoni were collected from throughout the open‐water of Lake Benanee, Australia at each of five times over a diel period. Bootstrapping was used to generate confidence intervals around sample means, and markedly more accurate means were obtained from samples collected in the day than the night. High variation in night samples was the by‐product of a diurnal feeding regime. Traditional sample sizes of 10 to 15 stomachs resulted in reasonable confidence intervals of sample means derived from collections on the first day, corresponding to uniform feeding patterns in the population. However, increased sample sizes were required to describe more complex feeding behaviour on the second day, when a proportion of the population switched to an alternative prey source.     

Spatial and temporal variations in subsidence due to the natural consolidation and compaction of sediment in the yellow river delta,china

ABSTRACT

The Yellow River Delta, which is the second-largest delta in China, has experienced varying degrees of land subsidence since the late 1970s. Although recent studies have identified the natural consolidation and compaction of sediment among the most important contributors to geologic processes, their processes have rarely been quantified. We estimated the sediment compaction over different time ranges to determine the temporal evolution of subsidence parameters (i.e., cumulative compaction). Estimates of primary consolidation, secondary consolidation, and the degree of consolidation in 152 boreholes revealed the spatial–temporal characteristics of sediment compaction and consolidation using geotechnical parameters collected from 152 boreholes, soil mechanics equations and the Kriging interplolation method. In addition, these estimates were partially constrained and cross-validated using the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) results from early 2007 to late 2010 which were provided in a previous study. By performing a comparison analysis between theoretical evaluations of compaction for borehole data and InSAR observations, we were able to quantify subsidence due to sediment compaction. The comparison results suggest that the theoretical solutions agreed well with the measurements recorded by the well-validated, advanced InSAR method and that the deviations between the InSAR technique and geotechnical evaluations ranged from ?22 to 3?mm. The results reveal that the land subsidence of the chosen borehole sites during the investigative period was dominated by the primary consolidation and compaction of sediment. The underprediction of subsidence may be explained by fluid withdrawal, oil exploitation and engineering construction. To speculate, more geological disasters may occur if the current subsidence condition extends into the future.     

基于GIS的居民住宅区域停车容量估算

随着私家车数量的快速增长,居民住宅区域停车压力已经越来越大,停车刚性需求与居住区公共空间"相争"的矛盾将会长期存在。如何科学、有效地解决私家车快速增长所带来的停车需求问题已经成为不得不面对的严峻现实。本文利用网络上现有的图像数据,选取福州市龙苑C区为试验区,通过GIS空间分析技术提取居民住宅区域内停车区域的分布信息。以停车区域面积、单位泊车面积为自变量,以停车容量为因变量,通过面积比例法得出停车容量与停车区域面积、单位泊车面积的关系,并由此建立停车容量估算模型,最后利用该估算模型实现基于GIS的居民住宅区域停车容量估算,并利用实测数据对估算模型进行了验证。