CAR模型的阶与时滞的强一致估计

研究随机线性反馈控制系统的结构辨识问题。在已知时滞的下界和模型阶的上界的假定下，通过使修改的Ｂａｙｅｓｉａｎ信息准则最小化，推导出由多输入多输出ＣＡＮ模型描述的系统的未知阶与时滞的估计算法，证明了算法是强一致收敛的，且能在有限步内达到其模型结构参数的真值。讨论了当模型的参数矩阵不满秩时减弱条件Ｈ’ｓ的强一致估计算法。     

GPS网参数约束平差法研究

简要介绍了参数约束平差的模型,与常规平差方法比较,参数约束平差数据处理简单,易于程序实现,以一GPS网为算例,用参数约束平差法获得了经典自由网平差、秩亏自由网平差、符合网平差的结果。     

Ecological requirements of Ostracoda (Crustacea) in three types of springs in Turkey

Seasonal occurrence of six ostracod species (Psychrodromus olivaceus, Potamocypris villosa, Ilyocypris inermis, Candona candida, Candona neglecta, and Cypridopsis vidua) varied from May 2003 to June 2004 in three types of spring (Limnocrene, Helocrene, Rheocrene). When I. inermis was only found in the limnocrene spring each month, P. olivaceus was common in all types of springs. The other four ostracods were found in the helocrene spring in fall, winter, and spring seasons. The unweighted pair group mean averages dendrogram separated three main clusters. The first cluster includes two species (C. vidua, C. candida) while I. inermis was found in the second cluster and P. olivaceus, C. neglecta, and P. villosa were found in the third. The occurrence of P. olivaceus and C. neglecta and P. villosa and C. candida was strongly correlated to each other (r=0.750 and 0.850, respectively). The Pearson correlation analyses showed a strong negative relationship between C. neglecta and water temperature (r=−0.607), but other species did not show any significant correlation to any of the environmental variables used (P>0.05). Canonical correspondence analyses (CCA) displayed all species closer to the center of the dendrogram, indicating high levels of species tolerances to environmental variables. Thus, the first axis of the CCA diagram explained 80% of the relationship between six species and five environmental variables.     

灰色系统GM(n,m)模型参数的递推估计和时变估计

本文给出灰色系统GM(n,m)模型参数的递推最小二乘估计和时变参数估计,前者的优点是可以避免反复求逆矩阵,因而使计算简便,同时克服了文献1中给出的估计方法当观察数据多、矩阵线数高、分配单元增加时,微型机容量不够的弱点,而且随着新数据的到来,通过递推算法自动对系统参数加以修正,提高了模型的自适应性;时变参数估计可以缩小系统的时变性与模型参数非时变性所产生的差异。     

用单桩沉降估算群桩沉降的计算方法

由于群桩沉降计算时参数的选取不易把握,而单桩沉降较易得到,找到一种用单桩沉降来代替群桩沉降的方法无疑会使得问题变得简单。单桩沉降由桩身压缩和桩端沉降组成。采用桩身线弹性的假定计算单桩桩身压缩,利用分层总和法计算单桩桩端沉降。同时在群桩沉降计算时考虑桩身压缩对沉降的贡献,并用承台下的平均附加应力乘以桩端荷载传递系数后作为桩端的附加应力。根据单桩和群桩沉降计算时的异同,提出了一种用单桩的沉降估算群桩沉降的方法,使得在群桩沉降计算时,参数选取较为容易,且计算较为简单。最后介绍了该方法在桥梁工程桩基础沉降计算中的应用。     

基于陆面模式Noah-MP的不同参数化方案在半干旱区的适用性

针对陆面模式Noah-MP对兰州大学半干旱气候与环境观测站（SACOL）2009年8月地表热通量模拟值偏差大的问题,通过分析相关物理过程和模拟试验来探究偏差的来源,并确定合适的参数化方案:采用Chen97方案计算感热输送系数可以改善感热通量的模拟;采用Jarvis气孔阻抗方案能增大植被蒸腾,改进模式对潜热通量的模拟效果,同时也使热通量在感热和潜热间的分配比例合理;采用LP92方案可减小土壤蒸发阻抗并有利于土壤蒸发,使得模式对潜热通量的模拟效果变好。不同参数化方案的组合试验表明:同时采用2组或3组新的参数化方案组合可以进一步减小模拟的地表感热和潜热通量的均方根误差,但是土壤湿度和温度的模拟效果并没有同步改善。     

浅谈如何编好对外援助项目的工程概算

准确的工程概算和资料搜集对.外项目的顺利实施起着非常重要的作用,分析了编制.外工程概算的内容及方法,提出了做好编制工程概算应注意的问题。     

中国旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放量估算(英文)

In 2009, nearly 900 million international tourist arrivals were counted worldwide. A global activity of this scale can be assumed to have a substantial impact on the environment. In this contribution, five major aspects such as the change of LUCC and the use of energy and its associated impacts had been recognized. Recently, the impact of tourism on environment and climate attracts the attention of international organizations and societies in pace with rapid development of tourism industry. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector are becoming a hot spot of international tourism research in recent five years. The use of energy for tourism can be divided according to transport-related purposes (travel to, from and at the destination) and destination-related purposes excluding transports (accommodation, food, tourist activities, etc.). In addition, the transports, accommodation and foods are related to many other industries which are dependent on energy. Thus, the estimations of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in tourism sector have become a worldwide concern. Tourism in China grows rapidly, and the number of domestic tourists was 1902 million in 2009. Energy use and its impact on the environment increase synchronously with China’s tourism. It is necessary to examine the relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions. In this article, a preliminary attempt was applied to estimate the energy consumption and CO2 emissions from China’s tourism sector in 2008. Bottom-up approach, literature research and mathematical statistics technology were also adopted. According to the calculations, Chinese tourism-related may have consumed approximately 428.30 PJ of energy in 2008, or about 0.51% of the total energy consumptions in China. It is estimated that CO2 emissions from tourism sector amounted to 51.34 Mt, accounting for 0.86% of the total in China. The results show that tourism is a low-carbon industry and also a pillar industry coping with global climate change, energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction. Based on this, the authors suggested that tourism should become an important field in low-carbon economic development.     

大气对流边界层发展的模拟研究

室内水槽模拟是大气边界层研究的一种重要手段。利用室内模拟水槽对大气边界层的发展进行了模拟,通过处理平均温度廓线和光斑图像得到了对流边界层顶部位置h2和边界层高度zi。结果表明,不同测量方法得到的结果一致性很好,与实际大气的边界层发展情况也较为接近。同时,根据试验情况确定初始条件和边界条件,使用边界层参数化模型进行了数值模拟,其结果与室内模拟的结果也较吻合。     

上海地区超长后注浆钻孔桩竖向承载力试验研究

依据上海地区某超高层商业建筑试桩的高吨位竖向抗压静载试验结果,通过对基桩的竖向极限承载力性状、桩身轴力传递特性以及桩侧阻力、桩端阻力发挥特性的分析研究,揭示了桩底注浆对基桩承载性状的影响情况,深入探讨了上海软土地区大直径超长后注浆灌注桩的荷载传递机理和竖向承载性状,提出了单桩承载力的估算方法。