Research on the spectral analysis and test method of period signals in monthly mean sea level

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浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。     

Dynamic Analysis of a Single-Column Platform (II)

This paper describes the study of a single-column structure used as well-head platform. In order to check the reliability of computation theory and programme, model tests have been carried out. The paper introduces the conclusion of tests and the dynamic properties of single-column platform are obtained.     

Triple diagram method for the prediction of wave height and period

Many formulations have been developed so far to predict the wave height and period from fetch length and wind blowing duration for a constant wind speed. This study aimed to predict wave parameters from fetch length and meteorological factors by using triple diagram methodology based on Kriging principles. Proposed model results were compared with Joint North Sea Wave Project (JONSWAP) model which is used so commonly in the ocean and coastal engineering studies. For the implementation of the methodology hourly wave and wind data were obtained from a buoy located in Lake Ontario. Numerical and graphical comparisons demonstrated that the proposed method outperforms the classical formulation.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

海浪周期关系的研究

本文利用现场观测数据、实验室风浪槽观测数据和由文氏谱及JONSWAP谱生成的模拟数据,研究了有效周期与谱平均周期、谱峰周期与谱平均周期以及有效周期与谱峰周期的关系,通过数据拟合给出了相应的关系式.研究发现,有效周期与由谱的负阶矩计算的平均周期之间的关系更加稳定,并且有效周期与负2阶矩计算的平均周期几乎相等,均代表了海浪主导波对海浪平均周期的贡献.     

中国对虾镰刀菌病的细胞病理研究

本文报导中国对虾养成期病原体茄类镰刀菌Fusarium solani(Mart)的细微结构及其引起宿主的细胞病理变化,以便为该病的正确诊断和有效防治提供依据。