Abrupt climate change: An alternative view

Hypotheses and inferences concerning the nature of abrupt climate change, exemplified by the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are reviewed. There is little concrete evidence that these events are more than a regional Greenland phenomenon. The partial coherence of ice core δ¹⁸O and CH₄ is a possible exception. Claims, however, of D-O presence in most remote locations cannot be distinguished from the hypothesis that many regions are just exhibiting temporal variability in climate proxies with approximately similar frequency content. Further suggestions that D-O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat. A more likely scenario is that changes in the ocean circulation are a consequence of wind shifts. The disappearance of D-O events in the Holocene coincides with the disappearance also of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. It is thus suggested that D-O events are a consequence of interactions of the windfield with the continental ice sheets and that better understanding of the wind field in the glacial periods is the highest priority. Wind fields are capable of great volatility and very rapid global-scale teleconnections, and they are efficient generators of oceanic circulation changes and (more speculatively) of multiple states relative to great ice sheets. Connection of D-O events to the possibility of modern abrupt climate change rests on a very weak chain of assumptions.     

Outlier detection algorithms and their performance in GOCE gravity field processing

The satellite missions CHAMP, GRACE, and GOCE mark the beginning of a new era in gravity field determination and modeling. They provide unique models of the global stationary gravity field and its variation in time. Due to inevitable measurement errors, sophisticated pre-processing steps have to be applied before further use of the satellite measurements. In the framework of the GOCE mission, this includes outlier detection, absolute calibration and validation of the SGG (satellite gravity gradiometry) measurements, and removal of temporal effects. In general, outliers are defined as observations that appear to be inconsistent with the remainder of the data set. One goal is to evaluate the effect of additive, innovative and bulk outliers on the estimates of the spherical harmonic coefficients. It can be shown that even a small number of undetected outliers (<0.2 of all data points) can have an adverse effect on the coefficient estimates. Consequently, concepts for the identification and removal of outliers have to be developed. Novel outlier detection algorithms are derived and statistical methods are presented that may be used for this purpose. The methods aim at high outlier identification rates as well as small failure rates. A combined algorithm, based on wavelets and a statistical method, shows best performance with an identification rate of about 99%. To further reduce the influence of undetected outliers, an outlier detection algorithm is implemented inside the gravity field solver (the Quick-Look Gravity Field Analysis tool was used). This results in spherical harmonic coefficient estimates that are of similar quality to those obtained without outliers in the input data.     

World-wide synthetic tide parameters for gravity and vertical and horizontal displacements

The response of the Earth’s crust to the direct effect of lunisolar gravitational forcing is known as the body tide. The body tide is superimposed by surface-loading forces due to the pressure of the periodically varying ocean tide acting on the Earth, called ocean tide loading (OTL). Both body tide and OTL can be decomposed into components of the same frequency known as tidal parameters. However, OTL is more complicated than body tides because of the dynamic effects of the ocean. Estimating OTL requires a model of the ocean tides and knowledge of the elastic properties of the solid Earth. Thus, synthetic tide parameters (amplitude factors and phase leads) have been developed here on a world-wide grid for gravity and positional displacements. The body tide contributions were added to the oceanic contribution to provide the Earth tide response. The accuracy and reliability of the synthetic tidal parameters have been estimated by comparing observed gravity and vertical-displacement tide parameters with those interpolated from our synthetic model, which shows good agreement. Tests also indicate that the synthetic tide parameters provide realistic gravimetric and displacements for practical use in tidal prediction.     

东亚南亚夏季降水对海温异常响应的数值模拟

利用IAP AGCM-Ⅱ大气环流模式，模拟了赤道中太平洋地区海温异常对东亚和南亚夏季（6～8月）降水的影响。结果表明：当1～4月该海温呈正异常时，中南半岛和我国东部降水将明显偏多，孟加拉湾附近降水偏少；而该海温呈负异常时，则我国华中和孟加拉湾附近降水偏多；对以上海温异常最敏感处为中南半岛和孟加拉湾附近地区，其中前者降水与该海温异常呈正相关，后者则呈负相关；该海温异常还会在中高纬地区激发出强迫波列。     

Shallow seismicity, stress distribution and crustal deformation pattern in the Andaman-West Sunda arc and Andaman Sea, northeastern Indian Ocean

Shallow seismicity and available source mechanisms in the Andaman–westSunda arc and Andaman sea region suggest distinct variation in stressdistribution pattern both along and across the arc in the overriding plate.Seismotectonic regionalisation indicates that the region could be dividedinto eight broad seismogenic sources of relatively homogeneousdeformation. Crustal deformation rates have been determined for each oneof these sources based on the summation of moment tensors. The analysisshowed that the entire fore arc region is dominated by compressive stresseswith compression in a mean direction of N23^°, and the rates ofseismic deformation velocities in this belt decrease northward from 5.2± 0.65 mm/yr near Nias island off Sumatra and 1.12 ±0.13 mm/yr near Great Nicobar islands to as much as 0.4 ±0.04 mm/yr north of 8^°N along Andaman–Nicobar islandsregion. The deformation velocities indicate, extension of 0.83 ±0.05 mm/yr along N343^° and compression of 0.19 ±0.01 mm/yr along N73^° in the Andaman back arc spreadingregion, extension of 0.18 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N125^° andcompression of 0.16 ± 0.01 mm/yr along N35^° in NicobarDeep and west Andaman fault zone, compression of 0.84 ±0.12 mm/yr N341^° and extension of 0.77 ± 0.11 mm/yralong N72^° within the transverse tectonic zone in the Andamantrench, N-S compression of 3.19 ± 0.29 mm/yr and an E-Wextension of 1.24 ± 0.11 mm/yr in the Semangko fault zone ofnorth Sumatra. The vertical deformation suggests crustal thinning in theAndaman sea and crustal thickening in the fore arc and Semangko faultzones. The apparent stresses calculated for all major events range between0.1–10 bars and the values increase with increasing seismic moment.However, the apparent stress estimates neither indicate any significantvariation with faulting type nor display any variation across the arc, incontrast to the general observation that the fore arc thrust events showhigher stress levels in the shallow subduction zones. It is inferred that theoblique plate convergence, partial subduction of 90^°E Ridge innorth below the Andaman trench and the active back arc spreading are themain contributing factors for the observed stress field within the overridingplate in this region.     

Enrichissement en uranium authigène dans les sédiments glaciaires de l'océan AustralEnrichments in authigenic uranium in glacial sediments of the Southern Ocean

Four sediment cores from the Polar frontal zone and the Antarctic zone in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean present an increase of authigenic uranium during glacial periods. We show that this increase in uranium is due to a combination of (i) an increase in the lateral transport of organic matter, (ii) a decrease in the oxygen in deep waters, and (iii) a process of diagenesis. It appears that uranium concentration cannot be used as a proxy of palaeoproductivity in the Southern Ocean, as previously suggested by Kumar et al. in 1995. To cite this article: L. Dezileau et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1039–1046.     

New structural and petrologic data on Mesozoic schists in the Rhodope (Bulgaria): geodynamic implications

Structural analysis of low-grade rocks highlights the allochthonous character of Mesozoic schists in southeastern Rhodope, Bulgaria. The deformation can be related to the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous thrusting and Tertiary detachment faulting. Petrologic and geochemical data show a volcanic arc origin of the greenschists and basaltic rocks. These results are interpreted as representing an island arc-accretionary complex related to the southward subduction of the Meliata–Maliac Ocean under the supra-subduction back-arc Vardar ocean/island arc system. This arc-trench system collided with the Rhodope in Late Jurassic times. To cite this article: N.G. Bonev, G.M. Stampfli, C. R. Geoscience 335 (2003).     

印度洋春、夏季海温对西藏高原夏季降水的影响

利用NCEP提供的1950—1997年全球月平均海表面温度场资料，首先通过EOF分解得到不同季节印度洋海温场空间分布特征，并在此基础上使用合成分析、相关分析和SVD分解等多种方法讨论了印度洋前期和同期海温异常与西藏高原夏季降水变化的关系。寻找出影响高原夏季降水的关键海区，目的为高原夏季早涝预测提供参考依据。     

A Laboratory and Theoretical Study on the Uptake of SO2 Gas by Large and Small Water Drops Containing Heavy Metal Ions

Laboratory experiments have been carried out to investigate the uptake of sulfur dioxide by water drops containing heavy metal ions where the metal ions serve as catalysts to oxidise the taken up S(IV) into S(VI). During the gas uptake the drops were freely suspended at their terminal velocity in the airstream of the Mainz vertical wind tunnel. Two series of experiments were carried out, one with large millimeter size water drops containing manganese or iron ions, and the other with small water drops containing manganese ions and having radii in hundreds of micron size range. The experimental results were compared against model computations using the Kronig–Brink model and the fully mixed model, modified for the case that heavy metal ions present in the liquid phase act as catalysts for the oxidising process. The results of the model calculations show that there are only small differences between the predicted gas uptake according to the two models. In addition it was found that the experimental obtained results from the uptake of SO₂ by water drops containing heavy metal ions for both, large and small water drops did agree with the model results.