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过去2000年全球典型暖期特征与机制的模拟研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
本文利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的通用地球系统模式(Community Earth System Model,简称CESM)的低分辨率版本(CESM1.0.3,T31_g37)在国际国内率先进行了多组过去2000年瞬变积分模拟试验,在与历史重建资料和观测资料进行对比验证的基础上,对过去2000年中的典型暖期(中世纪暖期与现代暖期)的特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨,结果表明:中世纪暖期太阳辐射加强是导致其“暖化”的主要原因之一,而温室气体浓度的激增是现代全球变暖的最主要原因;在中世纪暖期,自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和比温室气体的影响高一个数量级;而在现代暖期,温室气体对降水量的影响比自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和高一个数量级;在不同外强迫条件下的海表温度变化在热带太平洋区域截然不同,即自然因子影响下为类-拉尼娜态,而温室气体影响下为类-厄尔尼诺态;无论在中世纪暖期还是现代暖期,相对于1000~1850年的平均情况,沃克(Walker)环流均处于增强状态. 相似文献
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准确认识和把握21世纪前20年中国人口迁移的地理格局和影响因素,是推动新型城镇化建设及区域均衡发展的关键科学问题。借助特征向量空间滤波泊松伪最大似然估计(ESF PPML)引力模型,基于第六次和第七次全国人口普查数据、2005年和2015年全国1%人口抽样调查数据,研究了2000—2020年中国省际人口迁移的时空演化特征及影响因素。主要结论为:① 2000—2020年间人口迁移格局总体稳定,具有较强的不平衡性和网络溢出效应,大量人口从中部、西部、东北地区迁移至东部地区;② 人口迁移格局稳中有变,不平衡程度和空间集聚程度逐渐减弱,人口迁移和人口分布显现出南北分异趋势,东北地区人口迁出强度不断增强; ③ 传统引力模型因素(人口规模、地理距离)、地区社会经济发展因素(工资差异、科技教育投入占比、医疗水平)、社会网络因素、环境舒适度(PM2.5浓度)以及生活成本(住宅价格占比)共同影响人口迁移格局;④ 区域经济差异对省际人口迁移的影响作用逐步弱化,人口迁移逐渐转变为对工资收入、高质量公共服务、环境舒适度等多因素考虑的决策过程,生活成本逐渐对人口迁移产生显著影响。 相似文献
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Mapping of habitats with relevance for nature conservation involves the identification of patches of target habitats in a complex mosaic of vegetation types not relevant for conservation planning. Limiting the necessary ground reference to a small sample of target habitats would greatly reduce and therefore support the field mapping effort. We thus aim to answer in this study the question: can semi-automated remote sensing methods help to map such patches without the need of ground references from sites not relevant for nature conservation? Approaches able to fulfill this task may help to improve the efficiency of large scale mapping and monitoring programs such as requested for the European Habitat Directive.In the present study, we used the maximum-entropy based classification approach Maxent to map four habitat types across a patchy landscape of 1000 km2 near Munich, Germany. This task was conducted using the low number of 125 ground reference points only along with easily available multi-seasonal RapidEye satellite imagery. Encountered problems include the non-stationarity of habitat reflectance due to different phenological development across space, continuous transitions between the habitats and the need for improved methods for detailed validation.The result of the tested approach is a habitat map with an overall accuracy of 70%. The rather simple and affordable approach can thus be recommended for a first survey of previously unmapped areas, as a tool for identifying potential gaps in existing habitat inventories and as a first check for changes in the distribution of habitats. 相似文献
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A. Pastorello E. Baron D. Branch L. Zampieri M. Turatto M. Ramina S. Benetti E. Cappellaro M. Salvo F. Patat A. Piemonte J. Sollerman B. Leibundgut G. Altavilla 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2005,360(3):950-962
We present spectroscopic and photometric observations of the peculiar Type II supernova (SN) 1998A. The light curves and spectra closely resemble those of SN 1987A, suggesting that the SN 1998A progenitor exploded when it was a compact blue supergiant. However, the comparison with SN 1987A also highlights some important differences: SN 1998A is more luminous and the spectra show bluer continua and larger expansion velocities at all epochs. These observational properties indicate that the explosion of SN 1998A is more energetic than SN 1987A and more typical of Type II supernovae. Comparing the observational data with simulations, we deduce that the progenitor of SN 1998A was a massive star (∼25 M⊙ ) with a small pre-supernova radius (≲6 × 1012 cm) . The Ba ii lines, unusually strong in SN 1987A and some faint II-P events, are almost normal in the case of SN 1998A, indicating that the temperature plays a key role in determining their strength. 相似文献
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The search for the progenitors of six core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe) in archival Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) WFPC2 pre-explosion imaging is presented. These SNe are 1999an, 1999br, 1999ev, 2000ds, 2000ew and 2001B. Post-explosion imaging of the SNe, with the HST ACS/WFC, has been utilized with the technique of differential astrometry to identify the progenitor locations on the pre-explosion imaging. SNe 1999br, 1999ev, 2000ew and 2001B are recovered in late-time imaging, and estimates of the progenitor locations on the pre-explosion imaging, with subpixel accuracy, have been made. Only the progenitor of the Type II-P SN 1999ev has been recovered, on pre-explosion F555W imaging, at a 4.8σ significance level. Assuming a red supergiant progenitor, the pre-explosion observation is consistent with M ZAMS = 15–18 M⊙ . The progenitors of the other five SNe were below the 3σ detection threshold of the pre-explosion observations. The detection thresholds were translated to mass limits for the progenitors by comparison with stellar evolution models. Pre-explosion observations of the peculiarly faint SN 1999br limit the mass of a red supergiant progenitor to M ZAMS < 12 M⊙ . Analysis has been extended, from previous studies, to include possible detections of high- T eff , high-mass stars by conducting synthetic photometry of model Wolf–Rayet star spectra. The mass limits for the Type II-P SNe 1999an and 1999br are consistent with previously determined mass limits for this type of SN. The detection limits for the progenitors of the Type Ibc SNe (2000ds, 2000ew and 2001B) do not permit differentiation between high-mass Wolf–Rayet progenitors or low-mass progenitors in binaries. 相似文献
29.
针对WGS-84CGCS2000坐标基准差异问题,分析了用于估计基准转换参数的Bursa模型及其求解方法,初步尝试求取WGS-84CGCS2000的坐标基准转换参数。算例采用了中国区域内含有CGCS2000坐标值,同时安装有GPS接收机的21个观测站,并针对点位的区域分布问题,提出利用重心化的Bursa模型求解转换参数的思路,且得到一组较好的转换结果。 相似文献
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Object-based class modelling allows for mapping complex, hierarchical habitat systems. The riparian zone, including forests, represents such a complex ecosystem. Forests within riparian zones are biologically high productive and characterized by a rich biodiversity; thus considered of high community interest with an imperative to be protected and regularly monitored. Satellite earth observation (EO) provides tools for capturing the current state of forest habitats such as forest composition including intermixture of non-native tree species. Here we present a semi-automated object based image analysis (OBIA) approach for the mapping of riparian forests by applying class modelling of habitats based on the European Nature Information System (EUNIS) habitat classifications and the European Habitats Directive (HabDir) Annex 1. A very high resolution (VHR) WorldView-2 satellite image provided the required spatial and spectral details for a multi-scale image segmentation and rule-base composition to generate a six-level hierarchical representation of riparian forest habitats. Thereby habitats were hierarchically represented within an image object hierarchy as forest stands, stands of homogenous tree species and single trees represented by sunlit tree crowns. 522 EUNIS level 3 (EUNIS-3) habitat patches with a mean patch size (MPS) of 12,349.64 m2 were modelled from 938 forest stand patches (MPS = 6868.20 m2) and 43,742 tree stand patches (MPS = 140.79 m2). The delineation quality of the modelled EUNIS-3 habitats (focal level) was quantitatively assessed to an expert-based visual interpretation showing a mean deviation of 11.71%. 相似文献