延庆-张家口地区复杂地形冬季山谷风特征分析

基于2016年12月—2017年2月和2017年12月—2018年2月两年冬季的近地面自动气象站逐时观测数据以及张家口探空数据分析延庆-张家口一带（包括张家口崇礼、赤城、海坨、小五台山区,延怀、怀涿、洋河、蔚县盆地以及北京延庆、昌平、怀柔部分平原地区）复杂地形的风场精细化时、空分布特征,揭示不同复杂地形下局地风场的时、空变化规律,加深对复杂地形动力、热力作用对近地面风场影响的认识,为冬季山区风场预报以及复杂地形数值模式改进提供参考。结果表明:晴朗小风天风持续性作为矢量平均风速和标量平均风速的比值,可以作为研究风场变化规律的重要参数。根据风持续性的日变化特征,可以将研究区域内所有站点分为10种类型,分别代表不同局地地形特征的影响,风持续与风向变化的相关也很强。研究区域主要有3种类型的地形风:斜坡风、峡谷风以及较大尺度的山区平原风。不同地形特征下的风场、风持续性存在明显不同的日变化特征,山风和谷风相互转化的时间也不同,山区最早,盆地次之,平原区最晚;山风时段持续时间较谷风时段长,风速小;晴朗小风天实测风反映了实际风场的特征,而排除环境背景风场,弱化地形动力作用后整个冬季的局地风作为理论山谷风,更能反映热力作用下的山谷风特征。      

2018年一次罕见早春飑线大风过程演变和机理分析

2018年3月4—5日,华南、江南等地发生了一次大范围强对流过程,发生时间早,落区范围广,多地伴有雷暴大风、冰雹、短时强降水等剧烈对流天气,尤其飑线在江西境内造成了严重大风灾害。基于大气环流和雷达回波发展演变特征,将该次过程分为初始、发展和减弱三个阶段：初始阶段西风槽前西南急流造成的低压倒槽为强对流提供大尺度触发条件;发展阶段对流活动位于槽前暖区中,飑线在江西造成极端大风;入夜后,冷锋南下,对流进入减弱阶段。环境场及对流参数诊断表明江西中北部低层高温高湿,中层干冷,温度垂直递减率大,有利于产生雷暴大风。南昌探空长时间序列分析表明温湿要素气候态异常,与历史同期比,低层明显偏暖偏湿,中层偏干,有利于极端对流天气发生。综合多源观测资料和雷达资料分析中小尺度特征,本次江西飑线过程特点及成因包括：（1）受引导气流和前向传播共同作用,飑线移动速度快。（2）自动站分析显示飑锋后雷暴高压强,与锋前暖低压作用造成强密度流,有利于产生大范围直线型大风;（3）通过对比飑线弓状回波南北段回波结构差异表明,飑线后侧中层干后向入流促使降水粒子相变,剧烈降温形成的强下沉运动(下击暴流)是导致极端大风的主要原因,后部层云区下沉气流增强雷暴高压加之动量下传作用对雷暴大风有增幅作用。     

一次冰雹天气过程的云系发展演变及云物理特征研究

利用中尺度数值模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)的数值模拟,结合NECP/FNL再分析资料、地面、探空、多普勒雷达基数据和卫星产品等观测资料,综合分析了2014年3月30日发生在贵州省西南部的一次冰雹天气过程。研究了有利于冰雹发生的环流特征和环境条件,分析了冰雹云系的发展演变特征、云微物理结构特征,初步分析了冰雹形成的云物理机制。结果表明:此次冰雹天气是典型的低压辐合线型降雹类型,地面降雹位置位于700 hPa切变线和近地面辐合线附近及南侧;发生此次冰雹过程的对流云系经历了对流云系的初生阶段、合并加强阶段、成熟降雹阶段和东移阶段。贵州地区上空对流云系的微物理结构具有混合相云特征,高层为冰晶、雪,中层为云水、霰,低层为雨水、冰雹。霰和云水是形成雨水和冰雹的主要来源,霰撞冻过冷云水和霰的自动转化是冰雹形成的主要微物理机制。     

库车坳陷克拉2气田异常流体压力演化史

根据克拉2气田现今实测地层压力分析了异常高压发育的特征,并通过流体包裹体测试求取包裹体形成时期的古压力。计算结果表明:下白垩统和古近系库姆格列木群砂岩储层在距今8～6Ma(康村组沉积期末)时,古压力系数大致为1.09～1.18,发育过剩压力为4.6～9.6MPa的异常高压。在此基础上,以古、今压力数据为约束条件,利用数值模拟技术定量恢复出下白垩统与侏罗系异常流体压力的演化历史。研究发现:下白垩统储层流体压力经历了沉积型异常流体压力形成发展(白垩纪-库车组沉积期末)和沉积型异常流体压力萎缩—构造挤压型异常流体压力孕育(库车组沉积期末至今)两个阶段。康村组沉积早期沉积型超压开始出现,库车组沉积期末达到顶峰,过剩压力达40～50MPa;此后,在沉积型超压萎缩—构造挤压型超压孕育过程的耦合下,过剩压力曾降至25～30MPa,更新世起超压略有升高。侏罗系流体压力演化较为简单,吉迪克组沉积期开始出现超压,至库车组沉积期末达到高峰,此后异常高压逐渐萎缩。在克拉2气田的主要成藏时期(距今3～1Ma),烃源岩较储层具有更高的异常压力,源—储压力差为10～30MPa。     

动机、成本、风险：家长视角下研学旅游产品价值感知研究

以中小学生自然教育研学旅游作为具体情境,基于539份家长问卷数据阐释研学旅游动机与价值感知之间的关系,并通过成本感知和风险感知探讨其内在机制和边界条件。结果表明,家长感知的研学旅游动机越强烈,越容易感知到研学旅游产品所传递的价值,验证了研学旅游情境下动机对价值感知的积极影响,也形成了对动机与价值之间关系研究的理论补充。并且,这一动机除了直接作用于价值感知外,还会通过成本感知的部分中介作用影响价值感知,揭示了中国家长对于教育价值的重视会削弱其对“利失”的感知。此外,进一步验证了风险感知的积极影响,即家长感知研学旅游的不确定性水平越高,动机对价值感知的积极影响越明显,且会抑制成本感知对价值感知的负向作用,但风险感知水平达到一定高度时,其对成本感知与价值感知间的抑制作用将不显著。因此,面向需求设计打造产品,突出产品价值、加大宣传营销力度、把控活动安全、合理制定价格,获取家长群体的认同接受,将是研学旅游进一步拓展市场的重要考量。     

使用MODIS陆地产品LST和NDVI监测中国中、西部干旱

利用中分辨率成像光谱仪AQUA-MODIS卫星资料反演的地表温度LST和归一化差值植被指数NDVI,在中国中、西部地区应用植被温度混合状态指数VTCI方法,遥感监测干旱的空间分布状况。同时结合该地区有代表性的气象站逐月降水资料与VTCI指数进行相关分析,来验证此方法的适用性。结果表明,VTCI指数不仅与当月的降水量,也与其前期2至6个月的累积降水量有较好的线性相关性,显示VTCI方法不仅是较为有效的近实时大范围干旱监测方法,对于干旱的缓慢发展过程也有一定指示作用。     

Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

Assessment of boundary-element method for modelling a free-floating sloped wave energy device. Part 1: Numerical modelling

The boundary-element method has been widely used as a design tool in the offshore and ship building industry for more than 30 years. Its application to wave energy conversion is, however, more recent. This paper deals with the numerical modelling of a free-floating sloped wave energy device. The power take-off mechanism of the device consists of an immersed tube with a piston sliding inside. The modelling is done using the boundary-element method package WAMIT. The model is first worked out for the case where the axis of the tube is vertical. It is then derived for the tube inclined and successfully verified against numerical benchmark data. A companion paper presents results of a detailed comparison with a physical model study.     

Numerical modelling of deep sea air-lift

Deep sea air-lifting of solid particles from depth of 1600 m is simulated with a mathematical model of the three-phase flow in an upward pipe. The computations are carried out for an axisymmetric domain in a transient way. Phase distributions, pressure and velocity profiles together with flow rates for all phases are presented and analysed. The influence of the pipe diameter on the air-lift efficiency was studied for air-lift pipes of different lengths and found to be significant. The lifting efficiency increases with the increase of the pipe diameter due to the reduction of the wall friction influence on the flow. In addition, the efficiency also increases with the increase of the solid particles volume fraction at the inlet. The presented numerical model can be utilized during various stages of the design of the air-lift pumps to help answer fundamental questions on the process, and during their operation to select optimal process parameters and to address possible problems.     

Data-based forecasting of beach volumes on monthly to yearly timescales

Data-based methods for forecasting beach volumes are tested using ground-measured bathymetry from Duck, North Carolina, comprising 26 profiles, 20 year duration and one-month resolution. Derived beach volume time series show weak seasonal and strong event signals. The forecasting methods used are: Holt–Winters (standard and modified), three types of linear regression, and a default forecast in which the latest measurement persists unchanged into the future. Improved forecast accuracies are obtained by two modifications to Holt–Winters, involving an autocorrelation correction and long-term trend-damping, and by smoothing the fitting data using running medians or wavelet approximations. Beach volume forecasts are tested mainly at monthly intervals up to 12 months ahead, with further tests at up to 36 months ahead. Overall, modified Holt–Winters performs best and the default forecast second-best. With an added artificial seasonal signal, modified Holt–Winters outperforms the other methods more substantially.