南北地震带北段的远震P波层析成像研究

本文利用“中国地震科学台阵”探测项目在南北地震带北段布设的678个流动地震台站在2013年10月至2015年4月期间记录到的远震波形数据,经过波形互相关拾取到473个远震事件共130309条P波走时残差数据,通过远震层析成像研究获得了该区（30°N-44°N,96°E-110°E）下方0.5°×0.5°的P波速度扰动图像.结果显示,研究区下方P波速度结构显示强烈的不均一性和显著的分区、分块特征.岩石圈速度结构具有显著的东西差异：祁连、西秦岭和松潘甘孜地块组成的青藏东北缘地区显示明显的低速异常,而属于克拉通性质的鄂尔多斯地块和四川盆地则显示高速异常,表明东部克拉通块体对青藏高原物质的东向挤出起到了强烈的阻挡作用.阿拉善地块显示出弱高速和局部弱低速的异常并存的特征.阿拉善地块西部显示低速异常,而东部与鄂尔多斯相邻的地区显示高速异常,可能表明该地区的岩石圈的变形主要受到青藏高原东北缘的挤压作用.在鄂尔多斯和四川盆地之间的秦岭下方100~250 km深度上表现为明显的低速异常,表明该处可能存在软流圈物质的运移通道.鄂尔多斯北部的河套裂陷盆地下方在100~500 km深度内低速异常表现明显,说明该区有深部热物质上涌且至少来源于地幔过渡带.青藏东北缘上地幔显示低速异常且地幔过渡带中出现明显的高速异常,这种结构模式暗示了在青藏高原东北缘可能发生了岩石圈拆沉作用,而高速异常体可能是拆沉的岩石圈地幔.

     

Integration of gauge and radar rainfall to enable best simulation of hydrological parameters

This study is about use of spatially distributed rain in physically based hydrological models. In recent years, spatially distributed radar rainfall data have become available. The distributed radar rain is used to precisely model hydrologic processes and it is more realistic than the past practice of distribution methods like Thiessen polygons. Radar provides a highly accurate spatial distribution of rainfall and greatly improves the basin average rainfall estimates. However, quantification of the exact amount of rainfall from radar observation is relatively difficult. Thus, the fundamental idea of this study is to apply hourly gauge and radar rainfall data in a distributed hydrological model to simulate hydrological parameters. Hence the comparison is made between the outcomes of the WetSpa model from radar rainfall distribution and gauge rainfall distributed by the Thiessen polygon technique. The comparative plots of the hydrograph and the results of hydrological components such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil moisture, recharge and interflow, reflect the spatially distributed radar input performing well for model outflow simulation.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR F. Pappenberger     

Are modern metaheuristics successful in calibrating simple conceptual rainfall–runoff models?

In recent years sampling approaches have been used more widely than optimization algorithms to find parameters of conceptual rainfall–runoff models, but the difficulty of calibration of such models remains in dispute. The problem of finding a set of optimal parameters for conceptual rainfall–runoff models is interpreted differently in various studies, ranging from simple to relatively complex and difficult. In many papers, it is claimed that novel calibration approaches, so-called metaheuristics, outperform the older ones when applied to this task, but contradictory opinions are also plentiful. The present study aims at calibration of two simple lumped conceptual hydrological models, HBV and GR4J, by means of a large number of metaheuristic algorithms. The tests are performed on four catchments located in regions with relatively similar climatic conditions, but on different continents. The comparison shows that, although parameters found may somehow differ, the performance criteria achieved with simple lumped models calibrated by various metaheuristics are very similar and differences are insignificant from the hydrological point of view. However, occasionally some algorithms find slightly better solutions than those found by the vast majority of methods. This means that the problem of calibration of simple lumped HBV or GR4J models may be deceptive from the optimization perspective, as the vast majority of algorithms that follow a common evolutionary principle of survival of the fittest lead to sub-optimal solutions.     

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest     

Time series analysis for evaluating hydrological responses of pore-water pressure to rainfall in a slope

Characterization of pore-water pressure at the soil–atmosphere interface is a major requirement in relation to slope instability. A rain-gauge and five piezometers (BH1–BH5) were installed on a slope located in a Korean military base. The upper slope (BH4, BH5) was covered with plastic sheets to prevent rainwater from percolating into the slope due to safety issues. Rainfall is matched by prompt changes in the pore-water pressure except at BH5. Due to the plastic cover, the pore water does not show any significant change in the early period by evapotranspiration. From correlation analysis, two wells (BH3, BH5) have longer memory effects due to matrix flow of past precipitation. Two principal components show hydrological responses of pore water to rainfall during intense rainfall, but PC2 does not indicate any important changes in low or no rainfall. This study suggests that correlation analysis with PCA can be a valuable tool for interpreting datasets consisting only of pore-water pressure.     

Mass transport triggered by heavy rainfall: the role of endorheic basins and epikarst in a regional karst aquifer

This study aims at recognizing the mechanisms of mass transport between the karst surface and the saturated zone in a morphostructural relief of the Mesozoic karst carbonate platform of Murgia (Puglia, Southern Italy). The large dimension of the karst aquifer, the regional scale of the flow system, the boundary condition constituted by the sea, and the lack of freshwater springs constrain to the use of wells as monitoring points and limit the study area to the recharge area comprising 986 endorheic basins. The concentrations of non‐reactive tracers (nitrates) in the waters of autogenic recharge (from endorheic basins) have been modeled through the evaluation of effective infiltration, land use, and nitrogen surplus, with reference to a time window, which includes a low precipitation period followed by significant rainfall events. The comparison between the modeled nitrate concentrations and the nitrate concentrations measured in ground waters, coupled with the analysis of groundwater chemograms and records of hydraulic heads (all referred to the same time window), allows inferring the mechanism of mass transport between the karst surface and the groundwater table. The mass transport conceptual model requires the presence of the epikarst. The infiltration of significant rainfall in the endorheic basins after a low precipitation period displaces waters stored in the epikarst toward the saturated zone. Ground waters in the post‐event period show higher concentrations of nitrates, lower concentrations of total organic carbon, and higher Mg/Ca ratios than both those of the pre‐event period and the autumn‐winter recharge period. The post‐event recharge from epikarst storage determines a transient hazard of groundwater pollution with a time lag from the occurrence of the heavy rainfall.     

Hydrological responses to climatic variability in a cold agricultural region

Extended severe dry and wet periods are frequently observed in the northern continental climate of the Canadian Prairies. Prairie streamflow is mainly driven by spring snowmelt of the winter snowpack, whilst summer rainfall is an important control on evapotranspiration and thus seasonality affects the hydrological response to drought and wet periods in complex ways. A field‐tested physically based model was used to investigate the influences of climatic variability on hydrological processes in this region. The model was set up to resolve agricultural fields and to include key cold regions processes. It was parameterized from local and regional measurements without calibration and run for the South Tobacco Creek basin in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model was tested against snow depth and streamflow observations at multiple scales and performed well enough to explore the impacts of wet and dry periods on hydrological processes governing the basin scale hydrological response. Four hydro‐climatic patterns with distinctive climatic seasonality and runoff responses were identified from differing combinations of wet/dry winter and summer seasons. Water balance analyses of these patterns identified substantive multiyear subsurface soil moisture storage depletion during drought (2001–2005) and recharge during a subsequent wet period (2009–2011). The fractional percentage of heavy rainfall days was a useful metric to explain the contrasting runoff volumes between dry and wet summers. Finally, a comparison of modeling approaches highlights the importance of antecedent fall soil moisture, ice lens formation during the snowmelt period, and peak snow water equivalent in simulating snowmelt runoff.     

基于表层岩土渗透对三峡井网井水位降雨影响的精准分析

为研究三峡井网表层岩土渗透对井水位降雨的影响,采取井区表层岩土垂向渗透性测试方法试验,测得表层岩土垂向渗透性,并建立数学模型,用于降雨渗入补给分析。在此模型基础上,通过三峡井网8口井水位、气象三要素的对比观测资料对井水位日动态、月动态、年动态的影响进行精准分析与验证。结果表明:这种影响的特征是相当复杂的,同一个降雨过程在不同井上产生的影响特征不同,这一方面可能与各井的水文地质条件不同有关,另一方面可能还与各井点的降雨过程的差异也有关。     

Rainfall–runoff responses on Arctic hillslopes underlain by continuous permafrost,North Slope,Alaska, USA

The Arctic hydrologic cycle is intensifying, as evidenced by increased rates of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and riverine discharge. However, the controls on water fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems in upland Arctic landscapes are poorly understood. Upland landscapes account for one third of the Arctic land surface and are often drained by zero‐order geomorphic flowpath features called water tracks. Previous work in the region attributed rapid runoff response at larger stream orders to water tracks, but models suggest water tracks are hydrologically disconnected from the surrounding hillslope. To better understand the role of water tracks in upland landscapes, we investigated the surface and subsurface hydrologic responses of 6 water tracks and their hillslope watersheds to natural patterns of rainfall, soil thaw, and drainage. Between storms, both water track discharge and the water table in the hillslope watersheds exhibited diel fluctuations that, when lagged by 5 hr, were temporally correlated with peak evapotranspiration rate. Water track soils remained saturated for more of the summer season than soils in their surrounding hillslope watersheds. When rainfall occurred, the subsurface response was nearly instantaneous, but the water tracks took significantly longer than the hillslopes to respond to rainfall, and longer than the responses previously observed in nearby larger order Arctic streams. There was also evidence for antecedent soil water storage conditions controlling the magnitude of runoff response. Based on these observations, we used a broken stick model to test the hypothesis that runoff production in response to individual storms was primarily controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent water storage conditions near the water track outlet. We found that the relative importance of the two factors varied by site, and that water tracks with similar watershed geometries and at similar landscape positions had similar rainfall–runoff model relationships. Thus, the response of terrestrial water fluxes in the upland Arctic to climate change depends on the non‐linear interactions between rainfall patterns and subsurface water storage capacity on hillslopes. Predicting these interactions across the landscape remains an important challenge.     

黄土陡坡降雨冲刷试验及其三维颗粒流流-固耦合模拟

针对坡角为70°的黄土边坡,进行2.7 mm/min降雨强度下的室内坡面冲刷试验。根据边坡冲刷破坏的过程特征,将边坡侵蚀方式演变过程归纳为试验初期的片蚀、中期的细沟侵蚀、到后期的切沟侵蚀和坍塌。试验中坡顶处侵蚀强度大于其他部位,当坡面形成上下贯通的切沟之后,水流开始掏蚀沟槽底部土体,随着冲刷的持续,切沟两侧土体强度降低,坡顶土体发生坍塌。以此为基础利用三维颗粒流软件PFC3D对边坡降雨冲刷过程进行流-固耦合模拟,在模拟颗粒大变形的同时得到颗粒运动轨迹、孔隙率、流体单元内流速等重要参数,这些参数的定量变化过程反映了降雨过程中边坡遭受侵蚀程度及水流侵蚀能力的分布规律:坡顶处侵蚀最为强烈、水流侵蚀能力最强,且两者随高度降低呈减小趋势,与室内试验结果一致。