Modelling the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall: a case study in the wet and dry tropics of North East Australia

Rainfall regimes with strong spatial and temporal variation are characteristic of many coastal regions of north and eastern Australia. In coastal regions of north eastern Australia, regimes vary considerably over short distances. This occurs because of changes in local topography, including the height and orientation of mountain ranges and the direction of the coastline with respect to the prevailing moist south east air stream. Northern Australia experiences a tropical monsoon climate with rainfall occurring predominantly during the summer months. Areas with a closer proximity to the coast typically experience the heavier rainfalls. While networks of rainfall gauges have been established and continuous records are available for most of these stations from the 1890s, their low distribution density relative to the complexity of rainfall pattern they are required to represent means that there remains a poor understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall in the wet tropics. An enhanced knowledge of rainfall distribution in both space and time has the potential to deliver significant economic and environmental benefits to managers of natural resources. This paper reports on the application of a technique for estimating mean annual and mean monthly rainfall across the Herbert River catchment of north east Australia's dry and wet tropics. The technique utilises thin plate smoothing splines to incorporate both location and elevation into estimates of rainfall distribution. We demonstrate that the method can be applied successfully at the meso scale and within the domain of routinely available data. As such, the method has broad relevance for decision making.     

冲绳海槽千年来陆源物质输入历史与东亚季风变迁

为解决近1000年以来东海沿岸地区气候演化及其对南冲绳海槽陆源物质输入的影响, 对取自南冲绳海槽的MD05-2908孔上部(0~810cm) 共78份孢粉样品和199份有机碳同位素样品进行了分析.结果显示, 近1000年以来南冲绳海槽陆源物质输入存在着显著波动, 其中1100~1040aBP、960~880aBP和800~480aBP期间, 陆源物质输入比例增加; 1040~960aBP和480~230aBP期间, 陆源物质输入比例减少.将陆源物质输入指标与陕西佛爷洞δ13C含量记录对比分析, 发现陆源物质输入比例变化与季风的变化密切相关.当夏季风减弱时, 导致降雨带长时间集中在南部地区, 增强的降雨量提高了风化剥蚀以及沉积物向海洋搬运的能力, 使得陆源物质供应量增加.      

东亚梅雨锋暴雨研究进展

对梅雨锋的大尺度环流、梅雨锋的次天气尺度和中尺度特征、梅雨锋低空急流和暴雨发展等问题的研究进展作了概述，对低空急流和暴雨发展的各种观点进行了评述，并提出了新的见解和研究结果。     

京津冀夏季强降水下冰云宏微观特征

根据Aqua MODIS 2级云产品和Cloudsat的2级产品资料,结合降水数据和MODIS L1B级辐射率数据,对发生在京津冀地区夏季的三次强降水过程中冰云的宏微观物理量的特征进行分析,并探究这些物理量和降水强度的关系。结果表明：在水平分布中,强降水过程中降水强度高值区内云相为冰云,冰云云顶高度在8~17 km,冰云粒子有效半径、冰云光学厚度、冰水路径分别最高可达60 μm、 150、 5 000 g?m^-2;冰云光学厚度、冰水路径、冰云云顶高度随降水强度增大而增大。在垂直分布中,冰云主要分布在3.5 km以上,发生强降水站点的冰云为深对流云,冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度分别最高可达150 μm、 3 000 mg?m^-3 、 500 L^-1;冰云粒子有效半径高值区存在于云层中下部,且随高度上升而减小,冰云粒子数浓度高值区存在于云层中上部,且随高度上升而增加,冰水含量高值区则存在于云层中部;冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度在9 km以上随降水强度增大而增大。     

黄河万家寨水库流域降雨径流的分布式模拟及率定

应用SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,研制了黄河万家寨水库流域分布式降雨径流模拟系统,并对万家寨水库流域进行了10年(2000 - 2009年)径流模拟.其中,以2000 -2006年为系统参数的敏感性分析期和模型率定期,以2007 -2009年为模型的验证期,模拟结果显示,万家寨站点上模拟径流与实测径流过程线的相关系数达到0.97以上.在此基础上还将数值预报模式与模拟系统相耦合,对万家寨水库入库径流进行了预报和检验分析,结果较好.因此,该模拟系统能够较好地反映万家寨水库入库径流量的变化过程,具有一定的适用性,为进一步进行降雨径流预测提供了技术支撑.     

近48年青藏高原强降水量的时空分布特征

基于青海和西藏地区48个气象台站近48 a(1961~2008年)的逐日降水资料,分析青藏高原冬、夏半年强降水量的时空演变特征。结果表明:青藏高原强降水量与总降水量的空间分布相似,夏半年为由东南向西北递减,冬半年则由唐古拉山脉东段的高原腹地向四周递减;夏(冬)半年强降水量存在准3、准6 a(7~8 a)的年际振荡以及准9~10 a(15 a)的年代际振荡;夏半年高原北(南)部强降水量以增加(减少)趋势为主,强降水量呈现出微弱的减少趋势,而冬半年高原大多数地区均呈现出明显的增加趋势,在1976年发生突变现象。     

基于FloodArea模型新疆山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值的研究——以皮里青河流域为例

以皮里青河流域为研究区,运用小时降水、土地利用类型、数字高程（DEM）、实测淹没深度等数据,基于FloodArea模型对研究区2010年5月2日、2012年6月3日、2016年5月9日、2016年6月17日洪水过程进行再现模拟,通过精度验证并建立了降水－淹没深度的关系,在此基础上确定了4个淹没等级对应的致灾临界雨量。相关分析得出喀拉亚尕奇乡累计8 h降雨量与模拟洪水淹没深度的相关性最好,达到了0.96,潘津乡降雨累计5 h的相关性最好,为0.99;通过实测数据对模拟淹没深度进行精度检验得出,喀拉亚尕奇乡和潘津乡两个考察点相对误差分别为0.47 m和0.1 m,误差率分别为31.33%和7.69%,FloodArea模型对研究区洪水过程模拟的效果较好,可以反映出该区域的洪水淹没情况,能为无水文资料的山区流域的山洪过程进行较为精准的模拟;按照山洪灾害等级划分标准和降水-淹没深度的关系得出,预警点累计5 h降水得到对应4个等级的致灾临界雨量阈值分别为：四级17.84 mm、三级32.39 mm、二级54.21 mm、一级76.04 mm。     

Locally triggered seismicity in the central Swiss Alps following the large rainfall event of August 2005

In 2005 August, an unusual series of 47 earthquakes occurred over a 12-hr period in central Switzerland. The earthquakes occurred at the end of 3-d period of intensive rainfall, with over 300 mm of precipitation. The highest seismicity occurred as two distinct clusters in the region of Muotatal and Riemenstalden, Switzerland, a well-known Karst area that received a particularly large amount of rainfall. The large increase in seismicity, compared to the background, and the short time delay between the onset of the intense rainfall and the seismicity strongly suggest that earthquakes were triggered by rainfall. In our preferred model, an increase in fluid pressure at the surface due to a large amount of rain leads to a local increase in pore fluid pressure at depth. The increase in pore fluid pressure will reduce the shear strength of a porous medium by counteracting normal stress and, at the end, provoke failure. The series of triggered earthquakes in central Switzerland occurred in regions that have been seismically active in the past, showing similar hypocentre locations and magnitudes. This suggests that these earthquakes occurred on existing faults that were critically stressed. We modelled the intense rainfall as a step increase in fluid pressure at the surface that migrates to greater depths following the solution of the one-dimensional diffusion equation in a homogeneous half space. This allowed us to estimate the hydraulic diffusivity by plotting triggered seismicity in a time–depth plot. We found values of hydraulic diffusivity in the range from 0.01 to 0.5 m² s⁻¹ for our study area. These values are in good agreement with previous studies on earthquakes that were triggered by fluids, supporting the idea that the observed earthquake series was triggered by the large amount of rainfall.     

浙北地区旱涝预报问题探讨—一种汛期降水量长期预报方法

本文分析了当地前期气象要素——温度的演变特点与汛期降水量之间的关系,建立了两者之间的回归方程,并由此作出降水量的长期预报,从预报误差和试报结果看,效果是好的。     

高寒河谷灌丛冠层降雨再分配特征及影响因素

通过植被冠层的降雨被分割成冠层截留、穿透雨和树干茎流3个部分,这个过程（冠层降雨再分配）是高寒河谷灌丛生态演变的关键驱动因子之一,对于认识高寒河谷灌丛的水文循环过程及水分收支规律也具有重要意义。选取青海湖流域最重要的河谷灌丛--具鳞水柏枝作为研究对象,通过野外定点观测,深入分析了冠层降雨再分配特征及影响因素\.结果显示:①穿透雨量、树干茎流量、冠层截留量占同期降雨量的比例平均为48.40%、4.04%和47.56%,并在不同降雨量等级之间存在显著差异;②冠层降雨再分配各组成要素（穿透雨、树干茎流、冠层截留）与降雨特征参数存在高度相关性,伴随降雨量和降雨历时的增加,穿透雨量、树干茎流量、冠层截留量占同期降雨量的比例均逐渐趋于稳定,极限稳定值分别介于60.45%～61.07%、6.45%～7.42%、33.11%～34.17%;③产生穿透雨和树干茎流的临界降雨量分别为1.10 mm和1.87 mm,表明2 mm以下的降雨对土壤水分的补给基本没有贡献。因此,高寒河谷灌丛冠层降雨再分配与其他林木类型存在明显差异,需要深入研究其内在机制及水分利用规律。