Simple water balance modelling of surface reservoir systems in a large data-scarce semiarid region / Modélisation simple du bilan hydrologique de systèmes de réservoirs de surface dans une grande région semi-aride pauvre en données

Abstract

Abstract Water resources in dryland areas are often provided by numerous surface reservoirs. As a basis for securing future water supply, the dynamics of reservoir systems need to be simulated for large river basins, accounting for environmental change and an increasing water demand. For the State of Ceará in semiarid Northeast Brazil, with several thousands of reservoirs, a simple deterministic water balance model is presented. Within a cascade-type approach, the reservoirs are grouped into six classes according to storage capacity, rules for flow routing between reservoirs of different size are defined, and water withdrawal and return flow due to human water use is accounted for. While large uncertainties in model applications exist, particularly in terms of reservoir operation rules, model validation against observed reservoir storage volumes shows that the approach is a reasonable simplification to assess surface water availability in large river basins. The results demonstrate the large impact of reservoir storage on downstream flow and stress the need for a coupled simulation of runoff generation, network redistribution and water use.     

Revision of Cenomanian regular echinoids in collections at the Cairo Geological Museum,Egypt

Cenomanian rocks of Egypt are rich in moderately to well-preserved echinoids. From the large Cretaceous echinoid collection at the Cairo Geological Museum, a total of 27 regular species, in 12 genera, eight families, six orders and two subclasses, are revised and systematically described from these strata as exposed at several localities in Egypt. One new family (Pedinopsidae), one new subfamily (Lorioliinae), one new genus (Alternocidaris) and two new species of Goniopygus, G. subaequalis (Gebel Ekma) and G. macrotuberculatus (Gebel El Minsherah), are erected. Additionally, two species of Diplopodia, D. micropyga Fourtau, 1921 and D. halperti Fourtau, 1921, are transferred to the genus Pedinopsis.     

基于NorESM1-M模式的中国东北地区2050s玉米气候生产潜力预估

利用NorESM1-M模式资料驱动AEZ模型模拟了21世纪中叶东北地区春玉米在雨养条件下的气候生产潜力。结果表明：在RCP2.6情景下,东北区域热量资源较1981-2010年有所改善,年平均气温增加1.72℃,≥ 10℃积温增加359.6℃;降水整体呈现略增加趋势且南部多于北部,全区平均增多56.9 mm,蒸散量增加10.0 mm;具有最大气候生产潜力的区域在辽宁省东部;与基准年相比,辽宁单产平均每公顷增加1100 kg。在RCP8.5情景下,东北区域热量资源进一步改善,黑龙江、辽宁和吉林三省≥ 10℃积温分别增加652.7℃、636.3℃和683.9℃,降水总量较RCP2.6情景增加但空间分布差异较大,全区维持增产趋势,辽宁、吉林和黑龙江增产百分比分别为3.3%、8.1%和20.0%。     

东北地区ML≥4.0地震震源机制特征分析

搜集2008年1月-2010年5月东北地区ML≥4.0地震波形资料,利用邻省多台P波初动资料,采用P波初动解计算方法,求解2008年1月-2010年5月东北地区ML≥4.0地震的震源机制解.结合前期工作成果,研究东北地区应力场方向的总体特征和主压、主张应力轴方向的变化,分析P轴走向随时间的变化与东北地区中强地震发生可能...     

门限自回归建模在东北地区未来地震趋势研究中的应用

叙述门限自回归模型建模的基本原理及步骤,利用东北地区年最大震级序列数据建立门限自同归模型SETAR(2,4,3),并依此对东北地区未来可能发生的最大地震进行预测.结果表明,该模型预测精度较高,其研究结论对东北地区未来地震活动趋势预测具有参考意义.     

越南东北部静足 (Tinh Túc) 钨锡矿区花岗岩 年代学、地球化学与区域构造意义

越南东北部高平地区静足 (Tinh Túc) 钨锡矿床分布在银山-静足成矿带上,属于中国西南-越东北花岗岩相关的钨锡成矿带的一部分。花岗岩的锆石SIMS U-Pb测年结果为93.9±3.0Ma,地球化学分析结果显示出过铝质S型花岗岩的特点,高硅 (SiO₂含量73.5%~74.6%),铝过饱和 (Al₂O₃含量14.21%~14.88%),高碱 (Na₂O+K₂O为6.64%~8.47%)、富钾贫钠 (K₂O/Na₂O>1),同时富集Rb、Th、U、Zr、Hf,亏损Ba、Nb、Sr、Ti、Eu,轻稀土相对富集,呈现明显的负Eu异常。同位素研究表明,样品的⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr初始比值为0.749±0.027,ε_Nd(t) 为-10.71~-10.42。本文依据派洼花岗岩的地球化学特征,结合花岗岩的锆石U-Pb年代学、同位素分析结果,认为派洼花岗岩为燕山期后造山环境中形成的高度分异岩浆结晶的结果。通过与华南西南部矿床相关岩体比较,将静足派洼岩体归入个旧-大厂花岗岩带。并通过与缅甸境内腾冲-毛淡棉花岗岩带岩体特征对比并结合构造环境判别,提出个旧-大厂花岗岩带的形成可能受到太平洋构造域和特提斯构造域的双重影响,但以后者为主。     

东北地区水稻冷害气候风险度和经济脆弱度及其分区研究

应用历年气象、水稻产量资料和冷害指标,分析东北地区水稻低温冷害发生的温度条件、气候频率和风险概率,建立了水稻冷害气候风险度模式,将东北地区分成高、偏高、中等、较低和低风险5级水稻冷害气候风险度区.在气候风险性分析的基础上,考虑各地水稻冷害减产率、总产量和面积比例等经济损失因素,建立水稻生产对低温冷害反应的经济脆弱度模式...     

东北地区域发展的非均衡性与空间极化研究

基于对空间极化概念界定的基础上,首先从要素流的视角构建区域发展衡量指标--城镇集聚能力,并从整体上评价1995-2008年东北三省区域发展演变格局;其次利用差异指数和极化指数,从不同集聚层次对东北三省区域发展非均衡性和极化程度进行测度.研究发现:①从区域发展衡量指标的动态演变格局来看:1995-2008年间东北三省区域...     

中国东北地区降雪的不均匀性特征分析(英文)

Based on 1961–2005 observed winter precipitation data in Northeast China, the temporal and spatial variations of snow concentration degree (SCD) and snow concentration period (SCP), together with the circulation characteristics when there is a higher SCD, are computed and analyzed. Results show that SCD in Northeast China presents a yearly rising tendency and SCP decreases obviously. In terms of decadal variation, there is a 12-year periodic variation in PCP, and since the mid-1970s there has been an 8-year short periodic variation. As to spatial variation, SCD in winter of Northeast China has increased gradually from the eastern part to the western, and the minimum value of SCD occurs in the east of Jilin Province, while the high value center is observed in the central part of the province. For the whole Northeast China, the variation tendencies are consistent in the eastern and central parts, where SCD presents a rising tendency and SCP shows a decreasing tendency. SCD in the southwestern and northern parts has a slight rising tendency, with SCD in the southwestern part having the slightest increasing tendency, and SCP in the northern part showing the slightest decreasing tendency. When a high SCD value is observed, the whole region is controlled by the East Asian deep trough at 500 hPa, and the trough becomes deeper in the western part, while a high pressure, which is easily formed and intensified in the eastern part, makes the East Asian deep trough move eastward slowly. Upper-level jet stream and low-level jet stream co-exist, and the former is stronger and takes more of a southwestward position than the latter. The high value zone of water vapor transport over the Pacific is intensified obviously, and the extent also increases. Northeast China is influenced by the water vapor transported to the northwest along the north of the high value center.     

我国东北地区地震时空演变特征及其动力学研究

本文分析了我国东北地区中强地震空间分布特征和地震构造及震源机制特点,探讨了日本海俯冲带大地震迁移方向对中国东北地区中强地震空间分布的影响。结果表明:东北地区中强地震发震构造以NW向为主,Ms≥5 0的地震NW向发震构造约占67%,Ms≥5 8的地震NW向发震构造约占91%;日本海俯冲带大地震迁移方向对中国东北地区浅震的空间分布产生重要影响,当迁移方向与郯庐断裂带夹角较大时(α≥70°),地震主要发生在松辽盆地及其周边;当迁移方向与郯庐断裂带夹角较小时(α<70°),地震主要发生在郯庐断裂带附近。