支持向量机与卡尔曼滤波集合的西太平洋副热带高压数值预报误差修正

基于T106数值预报产品资料,提出了支持向量机和卡尔曼滤波相结合的方法来进行夏季西太平洋副热带高压数值预报的误差修正与预报优化.首先采用支持向量机方法建立了西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的误差修正模型.基于支持向量机预报优化模型尽管有比较好的拟合精度和预报效果,但与实际副热带高压指数尚有一定的差异.究其原因,除预报对象(副热带高压)本身比较复杂、模型优化因子不够充分以及数值预报误差自身的随机性以外,优化模型的输入、输出基本上是一个静态映射结构,因此前一时刻的预测误差难以得到有效的反馈、调整和修正.为考虑前一时刻预报误差的反馈信息,动态跟踪副高的变化趋势,随后引入卡尔曼滤波方法建立支持向量机-卡尔曼滤波模型,对支持向量机模型的输出结果作进一步的调整和优化.试验结果表明,该方法模型的预报优化效果优于T106数值预报产品以及单纯的神经网络修正模型和卡尔曼滤波修正模型的优化效果,能够较为客观、有效地修正西太平洋副热带高压指数的数值预报误差,改进和优化西太平洋副热带高压的数值预报效果.该方法为副热带高压等复杂天气系统和要素场预报提供了一种新的思路,表现出较好的应用前景.     

Indian Ocean Dipole-related Predictability Barriers Induced by Initial Errors in the Tropical Indian Ocean in a CGCM

利用GFDL CM2p1模式, 本文探讨了初始海温误差对印度洋偶极子(IOD)事件可预报性的影响. 当热带印度洋存在初始海温误差时, IOD预报发生了冬季预报障碍(WPB)现象和夏季预报障碍(SPB)现象. WPB发生与否与正IOD事件发展位相冬季的厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关. 即当冬季存在ENSO时, IOD预测不发生WPB现象, 反之亦然. 相比之下, SPB发生与否和ENSO没有必然联系. 此外, 进一步探讨了最容易导致SPB现象的初始海温误差的主要模态, 指出该模态在热带印度洋上表现为东-西偶极子型, 这和前人研究中最容易导致WPB现象的初始海温误差模态相似. 当在热带印度洋上叠加这些初始海温误差后, 热带太平洋上出现了海表温度异常和风场异常, 进而通过大气桥和印尼贯穿流的作用影响热带印度洋, 使之在夏季出现了东-西偶极子型的海表温度异常, 该异常在Bjerknes作用下快速发展, 加强, 最终导致SPB现象的发生.     

城市化对华北地区最高, 最低气温和日较差变化趋势的影响

利用华北地区255个一般站和国家基本、 基准站1961\_2000年的实测资料, 经过质量检验和均一性订正后, 将所有台站根据人口和台站地理位置分为5个类别, 分析了这5个类别台站和国家基本、 基准站地面平均气温、 最高、 最低气温的年和季节变化趋势以及城市化影响。结果表明： 华北全部台站的年平均气温、 最高、 最低气温均呈增加趋势, 且以最低气温上升最为明显, 导致年平均日较差呈现明显下降。就城市化影响而言, 平均气温、 最低气温变化趋势中城市热岛效应加强因素的影响明显, 但城市化对最高气温趋势影响微弱, 个别台站和季节甚至可能造成降温。在国家基本、 基准站观测的年平均气温和年平均最低气温上升趋势中, 城市化造成的增温分别为0.11℃·(10a)-1和0.20℃·(10a)-1, 对全部增温的贡献率分别达39.3%和52.6%。各类台站的四季平均气温和最低气温序列中城市化影响均造成增温。城市化增温以冬季为最大, 夏季最小。城市化还导致乡村站以外的各类台站日较差减小, 近40年华北地区国家基本、 基准站年平均和秋、 冬季平均气温日较差明显下降均由城市化影响造成的。     

北太平洋对人为二氧化碳吸收的数值模拟

采用一个开边界海盆尺度环流模式研究人为CO2在北太平洋的吸收和分布,并与闭边界模式的模拟结果进行了比较.模拟结果表明,西北太平洋和赤道东太平洋是两个重要的人为CO2汇.使用较大的等密度面扩散系数使得西北太平洋人为CO2通量增大,而赤道海区通量减小（RUN2）.与闭边界模式相比,开边界模式中该两个区域的人为CO2通量都增加了.1800～1997年间,北太平洋共吸收人为CO2 23.75GtC(1Gt=1×1015 g, RUN1).副极地海区是人为CO2的一个重要输出区,能输出人为CO2吸收量的38％～54％,而20°N～30°N海区是人为CO2的一个重要贮存区,占整个北太平洋的24％.开边界对于10°N以南太平洋吸收和贮存人为CO2有很大影响.与基于观测资料的估计相比,虽然模式低估了西北太平洋的人为CO2的穿透,高估了东北太平洋的人为CO2的穿透,但总的说来,模式比较好地估计了人为CO2在北太平洋的贮存.     

Provenance of the Langjiexue Group to the south of the Yarlung-Tsangpo Suture Zone in southeastern Tibet: Insights on the evolution of the Neo-Tethys Ocean in the Late Triassic

ABSTRACT

The Upper Triassic Langjiexue Group, which lies immediately south of the Yarlung-Tsangpo Suture Zone in the Shannan area of southeastern Tibet, represents an important part of the Tethyan Himalayan Sequence (THS). Its provenance and palaeogeography have been the subject of debate. We present new data on petrographic composition, whole-rock geochemistry, and detrital zircon U–Pb geochronology to constrain the provenance of the Langjiexue Group. The dominance of quartz grains and felsic volcanic lithic fragments suggests that the sandstones are litho-quartzose. The trace element geochemical signatures (V–Ni–Th*10, Co/Th–La/Sc, Eu/Eu*–Th/Sc) suggest derivation from felsic igneous sources. The detrital zircon age spectra display three major peaks: a Meso-to-Neoproterozoic peak (1200–900 Ma, 7–18%), a Neoproterozoic-to-Late Cambrian peak (750–500 Ma, 32–65%), and a Late Carboniferous-to-Late Triassic peak (300–200 Ma, 11–33%). The maximum depositional age of early Carnian (236–235 Ma) is obtained by calculating weighted average ages of the youngest zircons (≤250 Ma). The youngest age cluster (300–200 Ma) is incompatible with sources from neighbouring terranes, including the South Qiangtang terrane, Lhasa terrane, THS, and Higher Himalayan Crystalline. Correlations of the Permian–Triassic zircons with those of time-equivalent strata in northwest Australia, west Burma, and the Banda Arc unveil a potential connection to the Tasmanides along the convergent margin of eastern Australia. The New England Orogen (300–230 Ma) could have supplied the Langjiexue Group with magmatic materials via continent-scale drainage systems or a submarine fan complex. This scenario provides a new perspective into the transport of detritus from distal orogens to sedimentary basins thousands of kilometres away.     

北秦岭火山岩岩石化学特征和成因

北秦岭存在A、B、C三类火山岩系列,对应着幔源型、壳幔混染型和壳幔混合型成因类型。火山岩系列和成因类型的系统变化,反映了多旋回壳幔物质迁移特证。     

Trends in the solubility of iron,aluminium, manganese and phosphorus in aerosol collected over the Atlantic Ocean

The solubility of iron, aluminium, manganese and phosphorus has been determined in aerosol samples collected between 49°N and 52°S during three cruises conducted in the Atlantic Ocean as part of the European Union funded IRONAGES programme. Solubilities (defined at pH 4.7) determined for Fe and Al in samples of Saharan dust were significantly lower (medians 1.7% and 3.0%, respectively) than the solubilities of these metals in aerosols from other source regions (whole dataset medians 5.2% and 9.0%, respectively). Mn solubility also varied with aerosol source, but the median solubility of Mn in Saharan dust was very similar to the median for the dataset as a whole (55% and 56%, respectively). The observed solubility of aerosol P was ∼ 32%, with P solubility in Saharan aerosol perhaps as low as 10%. Laboratory studies have indicated that aerosol Fe solubility is enhanced by acid processing. No relationship could be found between Fe solubility and the concentrations of acid species (non-seasalt SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻) nor the net acidity of the aerosol, so we are unable to confirm that this process is significant in the atmosphere. In terms of the supply of soluble Fe to oceanic ecosystems on a global scale, the observed higher solubility for Fe in non-Saharan aerosols is probably not significant because the Sahara is easily the dominant source of Fe to the Atlantic. On a smaller scale however, higher solubility for aerosol Fe may alter our understanding of Fe cycling in regions such as the remote Southern Ocean.     

Tracing dissolved organic matter cycling in the eastern boundary of the temperate North Atlantic using absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy

Apparent oxygen utilization (AOU), dissolved organic carbon (DOC), coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption spectra, and CDOM fluorescence characteristic of aromatic amino acids (excitation/emission 280 nm/320 nm; F(280/320)) and marine-humic like substances (320 nm/410 nm; F(320/410)) were measured in full depth during a cruise in the temperate Eastern North Atlantic (ENA). An optimum multi-parameter (OMP) inverse method was run to calculate water mass proportion-weighted average (archetypal) concentrations of these chemical parameters for all water masses and samples. Archetypal concentrations retain the variability due to water mass mixing and basin scale mineralization from the water mass formation sites to the study area. Conversely, the difference between measured and archetypal concentrations, retain the variability due to dissimilarities in mineralization processes within the study area. Our analysis indicates that DOC supported 26±3% of the AOU in the dark temperate ENA and that basin scale processes occurring at and from the formation area of the water masses explained 63% of the total DOC variability. Our data also suggests that DOC remineralized at the basin scale was of lower molecular weight, and with a lower proportion of fluorescent aromatic amino acids than found within the study area. The relationship between the absorption coefficient at 254 nm (a_CDOM(254)) and AOU indicates that a_CDOM(254) was consumed during organic matter remineralization in the dark ocean, with 55% of the variability being explained by basin scale processes. The relationships of F(320/410) with AOU and DOC confirmed that marine humic-like substances are produced by microbial degradation processes, at a rate of 6.1±0.9×10⁻³ mg equivalents of QS mol AOU⁻¹. Our results also indicate that basin-scale remineralization processes account for 85% of the total variability of F(320/410), emphasizing that large scale processes control the formation of humic-like substance in the dark ENA.     

秋行夏令:2021年10月初北方致灾性持续暴雨及水汽极端性分析

2021年10月3—6日,我国北方地区经历了历史罕见的持续性极端强降水过程,暴雨中心稳定维持在陕西中部、山西、京津冀、辽宁等地南部和山东北部,给上述地区造成了巨大的经济损失和严重的人员伤亡。基于台站观测降水、NCEP/NCAR和ERA5再分析资料诊断了本次降水过程的极端性。结果表明,本次暴雨过程无论是降水强度、持续时长还是经向水汽输送均表现出典型北方夏季暴雨和大气环流配置特征。上述五省二市区域平均的过程累计雨量强度远远超过秋季其他暴雨个例,即使在夏季也位列第二。本次过程的极端性与强降水中心稳定在上述地区密切相关。上述五省二市区域平均降水连续4日均超过15 mm,这在秋季历史上从未出现过。除过程的极端性强外,9月山西等地降水异常偏多对10月初秋涝也起到了叠加作用。本次秋涝对应的大气环流呈现出典型的北方夏季主雨季环流型,表现为西太平洋副热带高压（副高）偏西偏北,副高西侧的经向水汽输送异常强盛,同时10月4—6日北方地区发生一次强冷空气过程,冷暖气流交汇在上述地区。水汽收支计算表明,本次过程的经向水汽输送强度为秋季历史之最,甚至超过了盛夏时期北方大部分暴雨过程水汽输送强度。上述分析结果表明,即使在仲秋时节亦可产生有利于北方极端持续暴雨的环流形势和水汽输送,并导致秋涝发生。     

西北太平洋热带气旋路径的历史模拟

基于IBTrACS提供的热带气旋最佳路径数据集,在统计分析历史热带气旋的发生年频次、发生位置、路径移动及强度变化等的基础上,建立了西北太平洋热带气旋轨迹合成模型。模型包括生成模型、移动模型、消亡模型及强度模型4个部分,并从地理轨迹密度、年登陆率、登陆风速分布三个方面,对模拟的气旋路径与历史气旋路径进行比较,以验证模型的准确性和可靠性。结果表明,构建的西北太平洋热带气旋全路径统计模拟模型稳健可靠,可进一步应用于研究区热带气旋的定量精细化的风险评估,能提高气旋风险灾害评估的可信度。