A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Alpine Evidence for Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

The configuration of Alpine accumulation areas during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using glacial–geological mapping. The results indicate that the LGM ice surface consisted of at least three major ice domes, all located south of the principal weather divide of the Alps. This implies that the buildup of the main Alpine ice cover during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 2 was related to precipitation by dominant southerly atmospheric circulation, in contrast to today's prevalent westerly airflow. Such a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation is consistent with a southward displacement of the Oceanic Polar Front in the North Atlantic and of the associated storm track to the south of the Alps. These results, combined with additional paleoclimate records from western and southern Europe, allow an interpretation of the asynchronous evolution of the different European ice caps during the last glaciation. δ¹⁸O stages (OIS) 4 and 3 were characterized by location of the Polar Front north of 46°N (Gulf of Biscay). This affected prevailing westerly circulation and, thus, ice buildup in western Scandinavia, the Pyrénées, Vosges, and northern Alps. At the LGM, however, the Polar Front lay at 44°N, causing dominating southerly circulation and reduced precipitation in central and northern Europe.     

宁夏鸳鸯湖电厂空冷气象条件分析

通过在宁夏鸳鸯湖电厂建立气温、风向、风速60 m梯度及地面观测站,与邻近的灵武市气象站展开为期一年的同步观测,获得实地观测资料。利用两地同步气象观测资料进行对比分析,揭示出电厂所在地气候特点。同时结合灵武市气象站1971~2000年观测资料,采用相关性分析方法,订正得到电厂地面历年气象要素特征值。结果表明,电厂风向和风速特征明显有别于邻近的灵武市气象站。分析结果主要用于该地火电厂空冷系统的安装与安全运行。     

数字地震台电源管理的特点和维护要点

通过对数字地震台供电系统的需求进行分析,提出了适合于野外观测台站的电源管理模式,指出了供电系统的日常维护要点和具体方法。     

The future of industrial cities and regions in central and eastern Europe

Economic transition in central and eastern Europe (CEE) has had a particularly strong impact on industrial cities and regions. Following their economic collapse, most of them are now confronted with serious problems such as high unemployment and vast ecological damage. The paper presents findings from a pan European research project that investigated the problems of these cities and regions as well as the strategies being adopted to cope with structural change. It examines the differences in approaches and addresses the question whether existing EU policy is suitable for supporting the redevelopment of old industrial cities and regions in CEE countries. The paper concludes with recommendations for future directions in policy making.     

混沌功率谱熵方法在识别水淹低阻油层中的应用

储集层孔隙度和电阻率曲线间微差形态波形的复杂程度隐含着储集层含油气性的信息,可以用混沌动力学系统加以刻划。油层相空间庞加莱截面明显具有自相似结构,呈现混沌特性;而水淹层和水层的相空间庞加莱截面显示,其混沌性呈显著减弱之势,系统趋于简单有序。其功率谱密度不论水淹程度如何,整体为一随频率增大其能量按指数递减连续频谱;随水淹程度逐渐减弱,递减幅度减小,整体能量逐渐降低,某些频率成分被吸收削弱,由光滑状逐渐演变成锯齿起伏状,其功率谱熵逐渐增大。基于测井信息的混沌特征和功率谱熵特征识别水淹层的方法,对利用传统测井解释理论判别比较困难的低阻油层有较强的识别能力。     

湖北省降水量的周期分析

结合降水量对农业生产的影响特点将全年降水量分成５个阶段,根据聚类分析的结果将不同的时段的降水量进行分区,由此对全省的降水量做自相关分析和功率谱分析,从而发现了降水量的变化周期。     

地脉动及特殊波形的频谱特性在地震预报中的应用

利用功率谱和Ｓｏｍｐｉ谱分析方法,对大震前地脉动及震前特殊波形等记录进行了比较深入的研究,结果表明：（１）较大地震前短周期地脉动及震前特殊波形频谱的峰值频率ｆｍ,拐角频率ｆｃ相对频带宽度△ｆ相对峰值Ｓｍ／Ｓ０,高频段的斜率绝对值│ｂ│及Ｓｏｍｐｉ谱的卓越频率ｆｄ等特征量均可能出呈现出较明显的下降（少数为上升）异常变化。（２）各频谱特征量呈现异常的时间基本上同步,并与波速异常发展趋势基本相符,（３）     

当前欧美海洋科学研究动态评析

重点介绍了当前欧美资助海洋科学研究的基本情况、优先资助领域和重要研究计划等,对欧美当前海洋科学研究的基本特点做了简要分析;并提出了我国下世纪初的海洋科学研究优先发展领域。     

Central Europe: Active or residual tectonic stresses

The regional stress field in the Western Alps and their northern foreland has been investigated byin situ stress determinations. More than 600 strain relief measurements were made with resistance strain gages in boreholes carried out in mines, tunnels and quarries. The stresses calculated and data obtained from other papers were used to get a detailed idea of the stress conditions in Central Europe.The measurements confirm a continuous flux of compressive stress from the Alps to the northern foreland east of the Rhinegraben. The largest stresses are observed in the Central Alps, the lowest in the Rhinegraben rift system. The horizontal stresses exceed at nearly all places the vertical ones. Evidently the excess of horizontal stress is generated by active plate tectonics in the Alps. A tectonic model to explain the observed stress pattern is presented.