For a Europe of flexible regions and not of region-states divided by ethnicity

Discussion of the future of Europe continues to be a marginal political issue, partly because of the resistance of states, on both the practical (bureaucratic) and conceptual levels, created by the government leaders and heads of state. In turn, the nation-states are challenged from within by independent and separatist movements that have laid bare the fundamental hypocrisy of rhetorical discussions of the principle regarding the self-determination of peoples; interfering with states (and their borders) has proven to be a taboo for Europe. The growing flexibility of the globalised economy should be paralleled by a growing flexibility in the conception of the division and political organisation of territory, but this is not the case. Further inflexibility stems from the socio-economic inequity that we accept in our daily lives as normal, in particular as regards inequality in the use and division of territory. Equality, or better egaliberté (equality and liberty), is a sufficiently dynamic and flexible concept to be taken as a point of reference in envisaging the society, Europe, and world of tomorrow. It is only through the concept of egaliberté that we can imagine a Europe based on relations between regions that are conceived and organised on multiple scales and not as region-nations conceived on the basis of ethnicity or in the name of supposed cultural homogeneity.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

秦山核电站厂址地震动加速度时程预测研究

本文研究了建立设计地震震源模型和用理论地震学方法预测基岩场地震震加速度的技术途径，预测了四相设计地震事件在秦山核电站厂址的加速度时程和反应谱，文中根据对地质和历史地震资料的研究，确定不同性质的设计地震事件，建立设计地震震源和工作区介质的确定性模型，针对未来地震的不可完全预见性，以及对地球介质和震源性质现有认识的局限性，文中发展了确定性和随机性组合的综合分析方法，在用确定的介质模型和设计震源计算地震     

1945－1995地磁场功率谱及其长期变化

本文根据最新修正的国际地磁参考场模型，研究了１９４５－１９９５地磁场中心偶极矩变化，地磁总场及其分量Ｘ、Ｙ、Ｚ的空间功率谱，地磁场长期变化谱的经向漂移和纬向漂移的功率谱和西向漂移速度。研究中发现最近５０年偶极矩仍在继续衰减，空间功率谱的变化也呈减小趋势。在经向谱的漂移中观察到１９７０年出现最小值，而在纬向漂移变化中１９７０年出现最大值，西向漂移速度的变化也在１９７０年出现最大值，这种现象正是１９７０年发生的地磁长期变化的突变，称作地磁＂Ｊｅｒｋ＂。     

Atmospheric concentrations of nonmethane hydrocarbons at a North European coastal site

Two years of individual nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) measurements at a rural site close to the south coast of Norway show that there was a distinct annual cycle with a late winter maximum and late summer minimum in the slowly reacting NMHCs acetylene, ethane, propane and i- and n-butane. The average January—March concentrations were a factor 2–4 higher than the July-September concentrations. Also ethene, propene and the pentanes show a similar annual cycle, but the individual scatter in the measurements in particular of propene, is large. The highest concentrations of NMHC were found in winter for easterly transport on a regional scale (out to 1500 km from the site), and for southeasterly transport in the summer.     

山西地震带历史地震序列的极大熵谱分析

综述了极大熵谱分析的原理及Burg递推算法,选取应变能∑E_1~(1/2)地震活动度∑A_1为采样序列,对三个时段的资料进行了极大熵谱分析。结果表明;两个序列所得结果较为一致。山西地震带中强震活动和华北中强震活动同步变化,且主要受321年和347年显著周期控制。其35年和66年短周期活动与太阳活动和地球自转31年和60年长周期较接近,表明地震活动在总体上受太阳活动与地球自转速率变化控制,短周期成份反映了发生地震地区应力场能量积累和释放的特点。     

地震地面运动的转动随机模型

In this paper, the characteristics of rotational power spectra in different sites are analyzed according to the relationship between the rotations and translations of ground motion from the elastic wave theory, and then the unified mathematical model of the spectra (including the torsion and rocking) is presented. Through the use of a lot of earthquake records and curve-fitting of the least square method, the statistical results of rotational power spectral parameters in defferent sites are given.     

A Debt to the West: Recent Developments in the International Financial Situation of East-Central Europe

East-Central Europe is undergoing a rapid political and economic transformation. The unprecedented depth and speed of the economic reforms have produced serious questions about the stability of the region, and its future relations with western Europe and the world economy. This paper surveys and evaluates the size and character of existing debt stocks owed to the West by Hungary, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. The future political and economic stability of East-Central Europe and the European Community depends, to a large extent, on the ability of the Western financial system to respond to the long-term needs of the region.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Alpine Evidence for Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum

The configuration of Alpine accumulation areas during the last glacial maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using glacial–geological mapping. The results indicate that the LGM ice surface consisted of at least three major ice domes, all located south of the principal weather divide of the Alps. This implies that the buildup of the main Alpine ice cover during oxygen isotope stage (OIS) 2 was related to precipitation by dominant southerly atmospheric circulation, in contrast to today's prevalent westerly airflow. Such a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation is consistent with a southward displacement of the Oceanic Polar Front in the North Atlantic and of the associated storm track to the south of the Alps. These results, combined with additional paleoclimate records from western and southern Europe, allow an interpretation of the asynchronous evolution of the different European ice caps during the last glaciation. δ¹⁸O stages (OIS) 4 and 3 were characterized by location of the Polar Front north of 46°N (Gulf of Biscay). This affected prevailing westerly circulation and, thus, ice buildup in western Scandinavia, the Pyrénées, Vosges, and northern Alps. At the LGM, however, the Polar Front lay at 44°N, causing dominating southerly circulation and reduced precipitation in central and northern Europe.