自动建模客观分型方法在非汛期人工增雨中的应用

根据安徽省人工影响天气业务系统需要,利用NCEP 500 hPa高度场和风场格点资料及安徽省81站10年非汛期逐日降水资料,在客观分析天气形势基础上,结合预报员实践经验给出的不同系统影响安徽省时的关键区,计算机自动建模,形成逐日天气型日历,实现环流分型客观化。此方法识别条件实用,模型物理意义明确,自动化程度高,自动生成的逐日天气型日历,为安徽省非汛期人工增雨作业指挥系统提供了很好的天气预报参考依据。     

热带玛珥湖沉积物的磁组构特征及对湖水动力条件的指示

热带玛珥湖湖水动力条件的变化,是反映区域有效降雨量的重要指标,为探测有效降雨的时空分布特征及其机制提供了良好的基础素材。对位于雷琼半岛的双池岭和湖光岩两个玛珥湖进行沉积物磁组构的分析,结果表明尽管湖泊沉积物磁面理发育、磁线理值很小,玛珥湖的水动力条件比较微弱,但各向异性度P 和水流速度函数Fs 呈现向上递减的长期趋势,与湖泊草本植物孢粉含量向上增加、有机碳含量减低、沉积物颜色从黑褐色向青灰色过渡的特征一致,反映了大约9cal.kaB.P.以来,华南区域有效降雨量逐渐增加、湖水平面上升的过程。这种变化的机理可能是当夏季风减弱时,热带辐合带(ITCZ)南移、ENSO活动加强的结果。     

巴音布鲁克山区暖季人工增水作业区域的合理性分析

受经济、技术、装备等影响,地面人工增水作业更具普适性,但其精准作业难度高,导致人工增水作业效果的提升较为困难。为此,基于2017—2022年5—9月巴音布鲁克山区18个观测站点的逐日气象资料,利用协同克里金插值法,K-Means聚类分组法,基于降水特征的空间分布,从宏观层面上对人工增水作业布局的合理性开展分析,以期科学化开展增水作业,从而有效提高作业效益。结果显示：(1)在空间插值中,小雨的相对误差最小,插值精度最高,而大雨相反,导致“平滑效应”明显,不确定性较大。(2)暖季月均降水量自西向东呈减少趋势,高值区多位于中部和东北部沿山区域,发生的降水事件以小雨为主,而大雨虽然频率低,次数少,但和小雨一样是影响降水量变化的主要量级。(3)现用人工增水作业点的适宜性大多一般,受小雨和中雨月均频率的空间分布影响较大,而在宏观地理上,西部作业点布设的适宜性较东部高。(4)降水空间分布受西风环流和地势影响较大,因而作业布局合理性上,西部区域和北部区域最好。(5)根据地理特点,北部地势复杂,适宜选择西低东高的山面建立地面烟炉,西部地势平坦,适宜建立作业方向为NNW的流动火箭。     

雅砻江流域主汛期降水长期预报的一种方法

本文使用天气学方法，从影响雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的长期预报有关因子出发，再运用数理统计方法反复筛选，仅取３个主要因子：西部青藏高原８个站冬春积温，北部冬季极涡面积指数，南部冬季印缅槽平均强度，建立逐步回归预报方程。结果显示：对主汛期６～９月降水量预报拟合准确率为１６／１７即约９４％。回归分析中发现：尽管西太平洋副热带高压对盆地西部降水有很大影响，盛夏且与高原积温有较密切相关，但由放大范围长时段的青藏高原积温，对于雅砻江区域主汛期降水量的影响超过西太平洋副热高压，因而在逐步回归过程中，副高因子仍被剔除．     

Is Precipitation the Dominant Controlling Factor of High Inorganic Nitrogen Content in the Changjiang River and Its Mouth？

The main reasons for the high content of inorganic N and its increase by several times in the Changjiang River and its mouth during the last 40 years were analysed in this work. The inorganic N in precipitation in the Changjiang River catchment mainly comes from gaseous loss of fertilizer N, N resulting from the increases of population and livestock, and from high temperature combustions of fossil fuels. N from precipitation is the first N source in the Changjiang River water and the only direct cause of high content of inorganic N in the Changjiang River and its mouth. The lost N in gaseous form and from agriculture non-point sources fertilizer comprised about 60% of annual consumption of fertilizer N in the Changjiang River catchment and were key factors controlling the high content of inorganic N in the Changjiang River mouth. The fate of the N in precipitation and other N sources in the Changjiang River catchment are also discussed in this paper.     

土地利用和气候变化对海河流域蒸散发时空变化的影响

蒸散发（ET）是水文能量循环和气候系统的关键环节,研究ET的时空变化特征及其响应土地利用和气候变化的驱动机制对于理清流域水资源和气候变化的关系具有重要的意义。本文基于MOD16/ET数据集定量分析了海河流域2000-2014年ET的时空变化特征,并结合时序气温降水数据和土地利用数据,采用相关分析方法定量探索了ET与气候因子的驱动力关系。结果表明：① 海河流域2000-2014年ET表现为较为显著的空间分布格局,呈现出北部和南部高、西北部和中东部低的分布特性。不同土地利用类型的多年ET呈林地>草地>耕地>其他类型的特征;② 2000-2014年海河流域年均ET波动范围为371.96~441.29 mm/a,多年ET的均值为398.69 mm/a,平均相对变化率为-0.41%,整体呈下降趋势;③ 多年月ET与气温和降水均呈单峰型周期性变化趋势,年内月ET呈单峰变化趋势;④ 春秋两季的ET与降水和气温的相关性明显高于其他季节,ET与气温和降水的平均相关系数是-0.17和0.37,表明降水对于ET的响应程度强于气温;⑤ 驱动分区结果表明海河流域ET受气候因子驱动的主要类型是降水驱动型和降水、气温共同驱动型;⑥ 海河流域耕地ET变化气候因子驱动模式主要是降水、气温共同驱动型;林地、草地的驱动模式主要气温驱动型和降水驱动型,其他土地利用类型的驱动模式主要是受其他因素驱动。该研究将对海河流域水资源开发管理和区域气候调节起到科学指导作用。     

国土资源信息灾备中心建设的可行性探讨

随着国土资源信息化向纵深发展,通过背景分析和现状分析,透过所存在的问题,阐述了国土资源信息灾备中心建设的可行性和重要性,进一步通过需求分析,说明了建设国土资源信息灾备中心必要性,但要考虑其建设的复杂性和长期性,为异地灾备中心建设提供了参考.     

The formation of wind curl in the marine atmosphere boundary layer over the East China Sea Kuroshio in spring

Various data are used to investigate the characteristics of the surface wind field and rainfall on the East China Sea Kuroshio (ESK) in March and April, 2011. In March, the wind speed maximum shows over the ESK front (ESKF) in the 10 meter wind field, which agrees with the thermal wind effect. A wind curl center is generated on the warm flank of the ESKF. The winds are much weaker in April, so is the wind curl. A rainband exists over the ESKF in both the months. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used for further researches. The winds on the top of the marine atmosphere boundary layer (MABL) indicate that in March, a positive wind curl is generated in the whole MABL over the warm flank of the ESKF. The thermal wind effect forced by the strong SST gradient overlying the background wind leads to strong surface northeasterly winds on the ESKF, and a positive shearing vorticity is created over the warm flank of the ESKF to generate wind curl. In the smoothed sea surface temperature experiment, the presence of the ESKF is responsible for the strong northeast winds in the ESKF, and essential for the distribution of the rainfall centers in March, which confirms the mechanism above. The same simulation is made for April, 2011, and the responses from the MABL become weak. The low background wind speed weakens the effect of the thermal wind, thus no strong Ekman pumping is helpful for precipitation. There is no big difference in rainfall between the control run and the smooth SST run. Decomposition of the wind vector shows that local wind acceleration induced by the thermal wind effect along with the variations in wind direction is responsible for the pronounced wind curl/divergence over the ESKF.     

Precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Osciliation

The precipitation patterns in flood season over China associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated, especially in the eastern China, using the rather long period rainfall data in this century. The results show that there were remarkable differences between the precipitation patterns in flood seasons of ENSO warm phase (El Niño year) and cold phase (La Niña year), as well as between the patterns in El Niño years and their following years. The most parts of China received below normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of El Niño events, but the coastal area of Southeast China received above normal amounts. Comparatively, the most parts of China received above normal rainfall in flood season of the following years of El Niño events, but the eastern part of the reaches among the Huanghe (Yellow) River, the Huaihe River and the Haihe River, and the Northeast China received less. During ENSO cold phase, the reaches of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River and the North China received more amounts than normal rainfall in flood season of the onset years of La Niña events, and the other regions of China received less. In the following years of La Niña events, the coastal area of the Southeast China, the most part of the Northeast China and the regions between the Huanghe River and the Huaihe River received more precipitation during flood seasons, but the other parts received below normal precipitation.     

雷州半岛人工增雨研究与应用

通过对雷州半岛云水资源气候分布、云的宏观动力学和微观物理学、降水形成机制、人工增雨机制、冷云催化剂与暧云催化剂、播云方式与催化方法的研究和对外场试验的总结，表明：雷州半岛空中具有丰富的云水资源。有暖云降水机制、冷云降水机制和混态云“播种一供水”降水增强机制。人工增雨可进行静力催化和动力催化，使用的冷云催化剂为冰核和致冷剂，暖云催化剂为吸湿性巨核。适宜的人工增雨作业工具为飞机、火箭、地面蚶丙酮溶液燃烟发生器、气球携带AgI焰弹、增雨炮艇等。37高炮不适宜在雷州半岛使用。