Seasonal Prediction of the Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021

The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH). Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions, a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern China. However, the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July2021 and its seasonal predictability are still un...     

一种新的El Ni(n)o海气耦合指数

利用1980～2010年月平均Hadley中心海表温度、美国全球海洋资料同化系统(GODAS)海洋温度和NCEP/NCAR大气环流再分析资料,通过对2个海洋要素(海表温度SST、上层热含量HC)和5个大气要素(海平面气压SLP、850 hPa风场、200hPa速度势和对外长波辐射OLR)的多变量经验正交函数展开(multivariate EOF,简称MV-EOF)探讨了热带太平洋的主要海气耦合特征.结果表明,MV-EOF分析的前两个耦合模态分别很好地对应了传统型El Ni(n)o和ElNiloModoki的海气耦合特征:传统型El Ni(n)o期间,伴随着赤道中东太平洋SST的异常增温,HC、SLP、200 hPa速度势等要素总体呈东西反相的“跷跷板”变化,低层850hPa赤道中太平洋出现较强西风距平,西北太平洋上空为反气旋性异常环流;ElNi(n)o Modoki期间,SST持续增温和HC正异常中心均显著西移至中太平洋,低层SLP和高空200 hPa速度势均呈现纬向三极型异常分布,低层异常强西风向西移至暖池东部,西北太平洋上空呈现气旋性异常环流.两类El Ni(n)o的海气耦合特征存在显著差异,较优的El Ni(n)o指数应不仅可以客观描述和区分El Ni(n)o现象本身,更要紧密联系两类事件所产生的大气响应.以往定量表征El Ni(n)o年际变化的指标大多立足于SST或SLP,本文选取HC作为研究指标,定义了一组新的El Ni(n)o指数HCEI和HCEMI.较以往基于SST的El Ni(n)o指数,HCEI和HCEMI不仅能更清楚地表征和区分两类El Ni(n)o(如1993年的传统型El Ni(n)o和2006年的El Ni(n)o Modoki),而且能更好地反映和区分两类El Ni(n)o与大气间的海气耦合特征,为ElNi(n)o的监测和短期气候预测工作提供了一个新工具.     

2015年夏季东亚和南亚降水异常与热带太平洋海温异常的联系及机理

2015年我国东部夏季降水呈现南北反位相的空间分布,河套地区降水异常偏少、长江中下游地区降水异常偏多,同期印度中部地区降水负异常,上述三个区域2015年夏季降水距平百分率绝对值极大值均超过55%。东亚和南亚地区2015年夏季降水异常的形成机理主要是由于该年夏季处于El Niňo事件的发展位相,菲律宾群岛及邻近区域反气旋环流异常,江淮地区至日本列岛气旋式环流异常,对流层低层位势高度异常场和整层水汽异常输送场亦存在相一致的空间分布,表现为负位相的EAP(East Asian-Pacific)/PJ(Pacific-Japan)型遥相关,有利于河套地区降水偏少和长江流域降水偏多。热带太平洋海温异常引起热带地区Walker环流负异常,热带西太平洋地区上空受异常下沉气流控制,热带印度洋区域对流层盛行东风异常,减弱了印度夏季风,并造成了印度中部地区夏季降水偏少。另一方面,印度上空对流层低层受异常反气旋控制,该异常反气旋北侧的西风异常沿着青藏高原南麓向东运动,增强了与EAP/PJ型遥相关相联系的异常水汽输送,有利于维持和增强河套地区降水负异常和长江中下游地区降水正异常。     

与ENSO有关和无关年江、淮旱涝可能成因研究

利用Nio 3指数,把ENSO循环不同位相的夏季划分为四类并进行聚类分析,发现E1 Nio发展期和La Nia衰减期可以聚为一类;E1 Nio衰减期和La Nia发展期可以聚为一类。而后经过比较分析,考虑ENSO循环对江、淮地区降水的不同影响,定义了新的东亚副热带夏季风强度指数。并利用该指数研究了夏季风异常和ENSO循环与江、淮地区夏季降水年际变化的关系和成因。结果发现,ENSO年,淮河和长江中下游地区夏季降水的年际变化是ENSO和夏季风共同作用的结果。ENSO的不同位相对雨带的南北位置有重要影响,夏季风异常主要对雨量的偏多偏少起重要作用。而与ENSO无关的年份,易出现强夏季风,这种年份长江和淮河地区经常是一致的干旱。     

中东太平洋ITCZ对两类厄尔尼诺SST异常的敏感性试验

利用MPAS-A(The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere)模式设计了中东太平洋热带辐合带CEP-ITCZ(Intertropical Convergence Zone over Central and Eastern Pacific)对两类厄尔尼诺SST(Sea Surface Temperature)异常的敏感性试验,通过试验结果与两类厄尔尼诺年实际大气异常的对比,初步解释了CEP-ITCZ在两类厄尔尼诺年产生不同异常的可能原因。通过CP-EL试验发现,热带太平洋SST异常的第一模态会使中东太平洋低层风场辐合增强,但对辐合带的位置影响不大,与中部型厄尔尼诺对CEP-ITCZ的影响基本一致。通过EP-EL试验发现,热带太平洋SST异常的第二模态会使中东太平洋低层风场产生较大异常,辐合带中心向南移动,辐合带明显减弱增宽,与东部型厄尔尼诺对CEP-ITCZ的影响基本一致。     

胶东邢家山地区燕山早期钼钨成矿母岩锆石U-Pb年龄及其意义

对从幸福山花岗岩中挑出的岩浆锆石进行了LA-ICP-MS分析,得出了由15个点组成的加权平均值为(157±2)Ma的年龄。此15个测试点均处于岩浆锆石的振荡环带上,且此年龄与邢家山钼钨矿辉钼矿Re-Os年龄一致,代表该花岗岩的结晶年龄。本次测试所得到的另外2组捕获锆石年龄(2798±13)Ma和(2250±18)Ma暗示该岩浆源区可能存在的新太古代-古元古代侵入岩基底,(230±6)Ma则可能暗示着该区存在三叠纪的岩浆活动。中生代以来(190~110 Ma),中国东部构造岩浆活动特征较为一致,与之相对应存在多期成矿作用。胶东地区广泛出露的玲珑花岗岩与幸福山花岗岩岩石地球化学特征及年龄基本一致,可能该区也存在着大规模的钼多金属成矿作用,只是大部分为后期构造抬升所剥蚀,邢家山钼钨矿是保存下来的代表。也说明,栖霞—福山地区中生代以来剥蚀程度相对较小,矿床保存条件较好,故应重视该区中浅成矿床(斑岩-矽卡岩型、卡林型、造山型浅成矿床等)的寻找。     

厄尔尼诺和南方涛动对中国水稻产量的影响(英文)

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi's climate and rice production,we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO's well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First,the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second,there is almost ...     

Ages of Detrital Zircon from Siliciclastic Successions South of the São Francisco Craton, Brazil: Implications for the Evolution of Proterozoic Basins

In this work we report ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb LA-ICPMS ages of 152 detrital zircons from lower greenschist facies quartzites from Proterozoic basin successions of the southern border of the São Francisco Craton, southern Minas Gerais State, Brazil. These are the intracratonic São João del Rei basin, the intraplate continental margin Andrelândia basin, and the Serra do Ouro Grosso sequence, developed on a crystalline basement older than 1.8 Ga, and deformed and metamorphosed during the Brasiliano Orogeny, ca. 0.59–0.50 Ga. The data constrain both the ages of the sources and the interval of sedimentation. The detrital zircons of the Serra do Ouro Grosso sequence were derived predominantly from the erosion of a Neoarchean crust, 2.5–2.8 Ga old, with only one grain showing a Paleoproterozoic age (2, 245±83 Ma) older than the Transamazonian event. Zircons extracted from a shelf quartzite of the lowermost sequence of the São João del Rei basin indicate derivation from the 1.8–2.2 Ga Transamazonian crust, with subordinate contribution from the 2.5–2.9 Ga Archean crust. The 1, 809±41 Ma age is interpreted as the maximum limit for sedimentation in this basin. The results confirm the regional correlation with the Espinhaço Rift successions. The zircons extracted from an autochthonous quartzite of the Andrelândia sequence yielded ages in the 1.0–2.2 Ga range, with a modal class at 1.2–1.3 Ga. Only two of the forty analyzed zircons yield Archean ages. The youngest zircon yields 1, 086±85 Ma. The zircons from the allochthonous quartzite yield ages between 1.0–2.7 Ga, with a modal class at 2.1–2.2 Ga. Only five of 45 analyzed grains yield Archean ages. The youngest zircon has an age of 1, 047±77 Ma. The results indicate that the detrital sediments deposited during the second marine flooding event of the Andrelândia sedimentation were mainly derived from the erosion of Mesoproterozoic and Paleoproterozic rocks. The 1, 047±77 Ma age is interpreted as the maximum depositional age for the described association.     

Modulations in incommensurate (Ca1–xSrx)2MgSi2O7 single crystals

Single crystals of (Ca_1–xSr_x)₂MgSi₂O₇ slightly doped with 1000 ppm Mn²⁺ and with x ranging from 0.04 to 0.32 were grown from the melt in a mirror furnace applying the Czochalski technique. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) revealed incommensurately modulated structures at room-temperature for all compositions in accordance with earlier studies by electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR). Electron diffraction patterns clearly show satellite reflections typical for two-dimensional modulation, and their successive destabilization with increasing Sr content. The modulation is of tartan-like appearance. Beyond a Sr/(Sr+Ca) ratio of about 0.32 the synthesis of stable solid solution åkermanite type crystals was proved not to be feasible, indicating the existence of a miscibility gap in the Sr åkermanite system. As presumed from the diffuse scattering around the satellite reflections, and suggested more conclusively by crystallographic processing of high resolution EM images the Sr ions incorporated into the incommensurate crystal phase are distributed in an ordered fashion and are partly adapted to the displacive modulation of the pure åkermanite. This means, occupational modulation even makes a contribution to the overall modulation characteristics in (Ca_1–xSr_x)₂ MgSi₂O₇.     

The 1.90–1.88 Ga magmatism in the southernmost Guyana Shield, Amazonas, Brazil: Geology, geochemistry, zircon geochronology, and tectonic implications

The southernmost Guyana Shield-Uatumã subdomain, northeastern Amazonas State, Brazil is dominantly formed by granitoid and volcanic rocks from the Água Branca Suite (ABS), undivided Granite Stocks (GS) and São Gabriel volcano–plutonic system (SGS). The ABS is characterized by a granite series that exhibits comparatively low Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratio, low (Nb/Zr)_N, high Sr values and high Rb/Zr ratio. Its rocks display metaluminous to weakly peraluminous (A/CNK 0.94–1.06), high-K calc-alkaline, I normal-type character and have moderately to strongly fractionated rare earth elements (REE) pattern. The SG granites and SGS effusive–ignimbrite–granite association is metaluminous to weakly peraluminous (A/CNK 0.84–1.18), high-K calc-alkaline, has moderately to weakly fractionated REE trend, higher Fe/(Fe + Mg) ratio, lower Sr content and lower Rb/Zr ratio. The ABS geochemical signature is consistent with formation from volcanic arc rocks and small participation of collisional setting rocks, whereas the SG and SGS have post-collisional tectonic rocks-related geochemical signature. This model is in harmony with a post-collisional extensional regime, started with the 1.90–1.89 Ga Água Branca magmatism, and culminated with the 1.89–1.88 Ga São Gabriel system at an early stage of intracratonic reactivation, which included intrusion of mafic dikes. The Uatumã subdomain was related to mantle underplating with continental uplift and its origin involved contributions of 2.3–2.44 Ga Archean-contaminated Trans-Amazonian, 2.13–2.21 Ga Trans-Amazonian, 1.93–1.94/2.0 Ga Tapajós-Parima. Foliation styles point out that part of the Água Branca granitoids recorded later deformational effects, likely related to the Rio Negro Province formation.