Connections Between Different Types of El Ni~no and Southern/Northern Oscillation

It has long been acknowledged that there are two types of El Ni(n)o events,i.e.,the eastern Pacific El Ni(n)o (EE) and the central Pacific El Ni(n)o (CE),according to the initial position of the anomalous warm water and its propagation direction.In this paper,the oceanic and atmospheric evolutions and the possible mechanisms of the two types of El Ni(n)o events were examined.It is found that all the El Ni(n)o events,CE or EE,could be attributed to the joint impacts of the eastward advection of warm water from the western Pacific warm pool (WPWP) and the local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.Before the occurrence of CE events,WPWP had long been in a state of being anomalous warm,so the strength of eastward advection of warm water was much stronger than that of EE,which played a major role in the formation of CE.While for the EE events,most contribution came from the local warming of the equatorial eastern Pacific.It is further identified that the immediate cause leading to the difference of the two types of El Ni(n)o events was the asynchronous variations of the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Northern Oscillation (NO) as defined by Chen in 1984.When the transition from the positive phase of the NO (NO+) to NO- was prior to that from SO+ to SO-,there would be eastward propagation of westerly anomalies from the tropical western Pacific induced by NO and hence the growth of warm sea surface temperature anomalies in WPWP and its eastward propagation.This was followed by lagged SO-induced weakening of southeast trade winds and local warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific.These were conducive to the occurrence of the CE.On the contrary,the transition from SO+ to SO- leading the transition of NO would favor the occurrence of EE type events.     

海洋初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用

2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,是暖海温中心出现在赤道中太平洋区域的一种新型厄尔尼诺,即中太平洋型厄尔尼诺。本文基于一个厄尔尼诺预测系统,利用三组回报试验来详细区分海洋表层和次表层初始状态对预报2002/03年中太平洋型厄尔尼诺事件的作用,并由此来探寻对预报厄尔尼诺演变过程最有利的初始条件。回报试验分为三组:(1)仅同化海表温度观测(sea surface temperature;简称SST)来优化海洋表层初始状态(Assim_SST);(2)仅同化海表高度观测(sea level;简称SL)来更新海洋次表层初始状态(Assim_SL);(3)同时同化SST和SL观测来一起更新海洋表层和次表层初始状态(Assim_SST+SL)。回报试验结果表明,三种不同的初始条件都可以使模式提前一年成功地预报2002/03年厄尔尼诺事件,并且"Assim_SST+SL"回报试验的效果最好。三组回报试验结果间的对比表明:海洋表层和次表层初始状态均对成功地预报该事件有重要作用,但其作用分别集中在事件发展的不同阶段。精确的海洋表层初始状态更容易激发模式预报出一次厄尔尼诺事件,而更合理的海洋次表层初始状态则能有效地提高厄尔尼诺事件预报的强度。     

深海内波空间啁啾的演变研究

根据基于两层流体推导的深海内波弱非线性薛定谔(Nonlinear Schrodinger,简称NLS)方程,引进空间啁啾的思想,研究深海区频散效应和非线性效应的作用。文中推导出了频散效应和非线性效应所致啁啾的表达式,采用数值计算方法计算了综合效应产生的总啁啾。分析了频散和非线性以及综合效应所致啁啾在深海内波传播中的演变规律。从空间啁啾的角度,解释中国南海东沙群岛附近深海区内波演变的机理。     

北太平洋海表面高度(SSH) 与风应力变化的关系

利用1958-2008年的北太平洋海表面高度和风应力资料,并与ENSO和PDO指数进行相关分析.结果发现,风应力及其经向分量主要通过季节振动影响海表面高度(SSH)的年周期变化,纬向风应力主要通过多年振动影响SSH的ENSO和PDO周期.纬向风应力和SSH均以黑潮延伸体主轴为界,两侧呈现出相反的升降趋势,SSH为北降南升,纬向风应力南降北升.风应力和SSH升降趋势相同,均表现为“上升—下降—上升”的变化特征.在地形变化剧烈、等深线南北分布的海区,西风增强会导致SSH升高,且西侧升高较为明显.北风增强将导致北太平洋西岸SSH升高,东岸SSH降低.     

El Niño and decadal effects on sea‐level variability in northern New Zealand: A wavelet analysis

Sea‐level data from two sites in northern New Zealand, along with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), are analysed for interannual and decadal variability using wavelets. The analysis shows, using statistically significant wavelet power, there is a significant relationship between mean sea level (MSL) and SOI. However, the relationship is highly variable, both in magnitude and in the range of time‐scales over which it occurs. This non‐stationarity necessitates the use of techniques such as wavelets for analysis. An interdecadal response in MSL around northern New Zealand has been isolated, with shifts occurring in 1950 and the late 1970s. This behaviour in MSL appears to coincide with shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, thought previously to be largely centred in the North Pacific. A strong correlation between SOI and sea surface temperature (SST) is also demonstrated. This relationship appears to be stable in magnitude (a large change in SOI produces a large change in SST) and to occur over the same range of time‐scales. More SST and MSL data are required for other parts of New Zealand to determine whether these findings apply elsewhere.     

Retrieving multi-scale climatic variations from high dimensional time-series MODIS green vegetation cover in a tropical/subtropical mountainous island

【Title】
There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region. Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis （PCA） on 11 years （2001~2011） of high-dimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover （PV） derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climate-related variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component （PC1, explaining 94.5% of variance） loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV （r = 0.94）, which was mainly governed by regional climate. The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3 （0.8% and 0.6% of variance, respectively） were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests （r = 0.72） and the farmlands （r = 0.80）, respectively. The low-order components （PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively） were closely related to the occurrence of drought （r = 0.49） and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies （r = -0.54）, respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index （SOI） with one to three months of time lags （r = -0.35 ~ -0.43, respectively）, revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to large-scale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.     

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE LANDFALLING STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE CATASTROPHIC MIGRATIONS OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN CHINA

In order to clarify the statistical pattern by which landfalling strong tropical cyclones(LSTCs)influenced the catastrophic migrations of rice brown planthopper(BPH),Nilaparvata lugens(stl)in China,the data of the LSTCs in China and the lighting catches of BPH that covered the main Chinese rice-growing regions from 1979 to 2008 were collected and analyzed in this work with the assistance of ArcGIS9.3,a software of geographic information system.The results were as follows:(1)In China,there were 220 strong tropical cyclones that passed the main rice-growing regions and 466 great events of BPH’s immigration in the 30 years from 1979 to 2008.73 of them resulted in the occurrence of BPH’s catastrphic migration(CM)events directly and 147 of them produced indirect effect on the migrations.(2)The number of the LSTCs was variable in different years during 1979 to 2008 and their influence was not the same in the BPH’s northward and southward migrations in the years.In the 30 years,the LSTCs brought more obvious influence on the migrations in 1980,1981,2005,2006 and 2007.The influence was the most obvious in2007 and all of the 7 LSTCs produced remarkable impact on the CMs of BPH’s populations.The effect of the LSTCs on the northward immigration of BPH’s populations was the most serious in 2006 and the influence on the southward immigration was the most remarkable in 2005.(3)In these years,the most of LSTCs occurred in July,August and September and great events of BPH's immigration occurred most frequently in the same months.The LSTCs played a more important role on the CM of BPH’s populations in the three months than in other months.(4)The analysis on the spatial distribution of the LSTCs and BPH’s immigration events for the different provinces showed that the BPH’s migrations in the main rice-growing regions of the Southeastern China were influenced by the LSTCs and the impact was different with the change of their spatial probability distribution during their passages.The most serious influence of the LSTCs on the BPH’s migrations occurred in Guangdong and Fujian provinces.(5)The statistical results indicated that a suitable insect source is an indispensable condition of the CMs of BPH when a LSTC influenced a rice-growing region.     

西风爆发事件对暖池厄尔尼诺和冷舌厄尔尼诺的作用——一个概念模型得到的结果

本文通过1个概念模型讨论了西风爆发事件对暖池厄尔尼诺与冷舌厄尔尼诺两种事件的作用,并讨论了它们对应的物理机制。结果表明,由西风爆发所诱导的纬向平流异常和海洋波动对厄尔尼诺的多样性有着至关重要的作用。由于模型包含了最基本的海-洋与大气物理变量及其相互作用机制,本结果可为解释西风爆发事件对厄尔尼诺多样性影响研究提供最基本的框架。     

滇东北下寒武统黑色岩系钼、镍矿床特征及找矿前景

滇东北地区钼镍多金属矿床主要产于下寒武统筇竹寺组黑色页岩、黑色粉砂岩地层中,矿体与围岩界线明显,呈似层状、层状产出,为层控矿床。矿体厚度薄、品位高,但往深部有变富、变厚的趋势.