气象预警信息一键式发布系统研究与应用

基于WebGIS、HTTP通信、数据库等技术,制定了一键式预警信息发布规范,有效整合了电子显示屏、预警大喇叭、手机等预警发布终端,开发了气象预警信息一键式发布平台,实现了地图综合显示、气象数据叠加、任意预警区域选取、一键式发布预警信息等功能,提高了预警信息发布的可视化水平,保证了多终端预警信息发布的高效性、一致性。该系统的一键式信息发布技术,为气象预警发布开拓了新思路,能够有效提升业务水平和预警发布能力。     

Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR方法同化多普勒雷达速度观测资料Ⅰ:模拟资料试验

利用WRF(Weather research and forecasting)模式及模式模拟的资料,采用Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR(ensemble transform Kalman filter-three-dimensional variational data assimilation)方法同化模拟雷达观测资料。该混合同化方法将集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ensemble transform Kalman filter)得到的集合样本扰动通过转换矩阵直接作用到背景场上,利用顺序滤波的思想得到分析扰动场;然后通过增加额外控制变量的方式把"流依赖"的集合协方差信息引入到变分目标函数中去,在3DVAR框架基础下与观测数据进行融合,从而给出分析场的最优估计。试验结果表明,Hybrid ETKF-3DVAR同化方法相比传统3DVAR可以提供更为准确的分析场,Hybrid方法雷达资料初始化模拟的台风涡旋结构与位置比3DVAR更加接近"真实场",对台风路径预报也有明显改进。通过对比Hybrid S试验与Hybrid F试验发现,Hybrid的正效果主要来源于混合背景误差协方差中的"流依赖"信息,集合平均场代替确定性背景场带来的效果并不显著。     

鄂尔多斯盆地渭北隆起西南缘奥陶系热演化史恢复与生烃史——以麟游-旬邑地区为例

本文应用古地温恢复法及盆地模拟法,恢复鄂尔多斯盆地渭北隆起西南缘奥陶系最大古地温梯度、热演化史和生烃史。根据钻孔测温曲线求得渭北隆起现今地温梯度为3.12℃/100m。该区在二叠纪和三叠纪进入快速沉降阶段,早侏罗世早白垩世进入缓慢沉降阶段,晚白垩世以来进入抬升剥蚀阶段,剥蚀厚度在1100~1300 m。旬邑地区奥陶系烃源岩在早二叠世约270 Ma进入生油窗,晚三叠世约210 Ma进入成熟生油阶段。晚侏罗世约150 Ma开始大量生气,在早白垩世末期96 Ma左右,地层达到最大埋深及最高古地温,达到生气高峰。热史恢复及模拟结果表明旬邑地区早白垩世地温梯度最高可达到5.0℃/100 m,是主要生气期。     

Petrogenesis and geodynamic evolution of the Kajan Neogene subvolcanic rocks,Nain, Central Iran

Kajan subvolcanic rocks in the Urumieh–Dokhtar magmatic arc (UDMA), Central Iran, form a Late Miocene-Pliocene shallow-level intrusion. These subvolcanics correspond to a variety of intermediate and felsic rocks, comprising quartz diorite, quartz monzodiorite, tonalite and granite. These lithologies are medium-K calc-alkaline, with SiO₂ (wt.%) varying from 52% (wt.%) to 75 (wt.%). The major element chemical data also show that MgO, CaO, TiO₂, P₂O₅, MnO, Al₂O₃ and Fe₂O₃ define linear trends with negative slopes against SiO₂, whilst Na₂O and K₂O are positively correlated with silica. Contents of incompatible trace elements (e.g. Ba, Rb, Nb, La and Zr) become higher with increasing SiO₂, whereas Sr shows an opposite behaviour. Chondrite-normalized multi-element patterns show enrichment in LILE relative to HFSE and troughs in Nb, P and Ti. These observations are typical of subduction related magmas that formed in an active continental margin. The Kajan rocks show a strong affinity with calc-alkaline arc magmas, confirmed by REE fractionation (La_N/Yb_N = 4.5–6.4) with moderate HREE fractionation (Sm_N/Yb_N = 1.08–1.57). The negative Eu anomaly (Eu/Eu* <1), the low to moderate Sr content (< 400 ppm) and the Dy/Yb values reflect plagioclase and hornblende (+- clinopyroxene) fractionation from a calc-alkaline melt Whole–rock Sr and Nd isotope analyses show that the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr initial ratios vary from 0.704432 to 0.705989, and the ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd initial ratios go from 0.512722 to 0.512813. All the studied samples have similar Sr-Nd isotopes, indicating an origin from a similar source, with granite samples that has more radiogenic Sr and low radiogenic Nd isotopes, suggesting a minor interaction with upper crust during magma ascent. The Kajan subvolcanic rocks plot within the depleted mantle quadrant of the conventional Sr-Nd isotope diagram, a compositional region corresponding to mantle-derived igneous rocks.     

Landscape pattern and transition under natural and anthropogenic disturbance in an arid region of northwestern China

There is a pressing need to determine the relationships between driving variables and landscape transformations. Human activities shape landscapes and turn them into complex assemblages of highly diverse structures. Other factors, including climate and topography, also play significant roles in landscape transitions, and identifying the interactions among the variables is critical to environmental management. This study analyzed the configurations and spatial-temporal processes of landscape changes from 1998 to 2011 under different anthropogenic disturbances, identified the main variables that determine the landscape patterns and transitions, and quantified the relationships between pairs of driver sets. Landsat images of Baicheng and Tekes from 1998, 2006 and 2011 were used to classify landscapes by supervised classification. Redundancy analysis (RDA) and variation partitioning were performed to identify the main driving forces and to quantify the unique, shared, and total explained variation of the sets of variables. The results indicate that the proportions of otherwise identical landscapes in Baicheng and Tekes were very different. The area of the grassland in Tekes was much larger than that of the cropland; however, the differences between the grassland and cropland in Baicheng were not as pronounced. Much of the grassland in Tekes was located in an area that was near residents, whereas most of the grassland in Baicheng was far from residents. The slope, elevation, annual precipitation, annual temperature, and distance to the nearest resident were strong driving forces influencing the patterns and transitions of the landscapes. The results of the variation partitioning indicated complex interrelationships among all of the pairs of driver sets. All of the variable sets had significant explanatory roles, most of which had both unique and shared variations with the others. The results of this study can assist policy makers and planners in implementing sustainable landscape management and effective protection strategies.     

Retrieval of effective leaf area index (LAIe) and leaf area density (LAD) profile at individual tree level using high density multi-return airborne LiDAR

As an important canopy structure indicator, leaf area index (LAI) proved to be of considerable implications for forest ecosystem and ecological studies, and efficient techniques for accurate LAI acquisitions have long been highlighted. Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR), often termed as airborne laser scanning (ALS), once was extensively investigated for this task but showed limited performance due to its low sampling density. Now, ALS systems exhibit more competing capacities such as high density and multi-return sampling, and hence, people began to ask the questions like—“can ALS now work better on the task of LAI prediction?” As a re-examination, this study investigated the feasibility of LAI retrievals at the individual tree level based on high density and multi-return ALS, by directly considering the vertical distributions of laser points lying within each tree crown instead of by proposing feature variables such as quantiles involving laser point distribution modes at the plot level. The examination was operated in the case of four tree species (i.e. Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris, Populus tremula and Quercus robur) in a mixed forest, with their LAI-related reference data collected by using static terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In light of the differences between ALS- and TLS-based LAI characterizations, the methods of voxelization of 3D scattered laser points, effective LAI (LAIe) that does not distinguish branches from canopies and unified cumulative LAI (ucLAI) that is often used to characterize the vertical profiles of crown leaf area densities (LADs) was used; then, the relationships between the ALS- and TLS-derived LAIes were determined, and so did ucLAIs. Tests indicated that the tree-level LAIes for the four tree species can be estimated based on the used airborne LiDAR (R² = 0.07, 0.26, 0.43 and 0.21, respectively) and their ucLAIs can also be derived. Overall, this study has validated the usage of the contemporary high density multi-return airborne LiDARs for LAIe and LAD profile retrievals at the individual tree level, and the contribution are of high potential for advancing forest ecosystem modeling and ecological understanding.     

附有物理量和气象条件约束的光学卫星国土观测有效覆盖率评估

传统光学卫星国土观测覆盖评估建立在卫星对地理想覆盖的基础上,并未考虑卫星存储、星地数据传输、观测时长等物理量及观测区域气象因素对于覆盖性能的影响。本文针对光学遥感卫星的国土观测需求.建立国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标体系,根据卫星数据存储能力、星地数据传输能力、卫星单圈最大观测时长、卫星观测太阳高度角等性能参数,提出了基于物理性能约束下的有效覆盖计算方法。根据气象台站历年气象数据,提出了气象约束因子的计算方法。综合考虑卫星物理性能约束与观测区域气象约束,计算光学遥感卫星对地观测有效覆盖能力。最后根据专家设计的光学遥感卫星国土观测有效覆盖能力评估指标权重,利用层次分析法(AHP)评估光学遥感卫星系统对于国土观测的需求满足程度。试验结果表明,本文方法对于国土观测有效覆盖的估算和评价结果更加精确,更接近于国土观测的实际应用需求,为对地观测有效覆盖能力评估提供了一种更为精确的可行方案。     

SAR图像海岸线检测的区域距离正则化几何主动轮廓模型

合成孔径雷达(SAR)卫星遥感图像可以极大地提高全国海岸线覆盖频率,然而受到海洋波浪所引起的随机海水表面粗糙度的影响,海岸目标与海水背景边界易混淆不清,因此本文提出了基于区域距离正则化几何主动轮廓模型(RDRGAC),引入距离正则项,解决重复初始化水平集函数为符号距离函数的问题,提高了算法收敛速度。此外,将区域面积项系数与SAR图像等效视数(ENL)建立非线性拟合关系,实现RDRGAC模型根据不同SAR遥感图像的自适应调整,改善海岸线自动提取精度。通过河北省北戴河和大连市金州湾SAR数据海岸线提取对比试验,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

一种多系统组合导航快速选星方法

采用多卫星导航系统组合导航,定位精度和系统可靠性会大幅提升,但导航定位运算量也会成倍增长。为解决多系统组合导航定位精度与实时性之间的矛盾,提出一种新的选星方法。新方法不追求最小GDOP值,而是以满足导航定位精度的GDOP值为前提,结合模糊理论中隶属函数的思想,按卫星在星座中均匀分布为原则进行选星。推导伪距测量的误差模型,分析了GDOP与测量误差之间的关系。北斗、GPS和GLONASS三系统组合导航选星实验结果表明,在不超过3次求解GDOP值的情况下,新方法能以不小于98%的概率得到GDOP≤4。     

热红外与可见光数据的云边缘高度匹配

高分辨率数据中云高度的差异性突显,特别是边缘处高度在云阴影识别和地表辐射估算等方面成为需要考虑的重要因素。热红外数据获取云高度分辨率较低、缺乏细部差异性特征,为解决这一问题,首先将对应的热红外和可见光数据进行特征点配准,再将基于热红外数据计算的云高度重采样至高分辨率,然后以基于欧式距离变换的围线搜索方法及距离加权将热红外云边缘高度匹配至对应的可见光图像,最后根据云阴影的相似度匹配方法确定真实云高度。结果表明,算法在遵循热红外云高信息分布变化规律的同时,可以得到较准确的高分辨率云边缘高度,一定程度上解决了热红外技术获取云高在分辨率上的局限,扩展了其在云高反演方面的作用。