海南岛天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价

台风灾害是海南橡胶种植中影响最为严重和主要的灾害,为对其风险进行定量评估,本研究以海南岛天然橡胶林为研究对象,基于灾害风险评估理论,融合橡胶台风灾害、社会经济和气象数据,建立橡胶台风灾害危险性、暴露性和脆弱性评价模型,利用加权综合评价法开展天然橡胶林台风灾害风险评价。结果表明：海南橡胶种植高风险区位于沿海台风发生频繁市县,其中琼海、文昌、海口为海南岛橡胶灾害风险最高的地区,其次陵水、万宁、琼中、屯昌、东方等地区灾害风险也较高。风险最低地区位于中部五指山、保亭、乐东、三亚等地区,评价结果与实际灾害发生以及种植情况相符。评价结果表明,台风灾害危险性是风险的主导因子,但非单一决定因子,种植技术、品种改良等措施对脆弱性降低起到了较好的促进作用。评价结果可为橡胶林避灾防灾及种植布局提供依据。     

周、秦、汉、唐时期关中地区自然灾害与粮食安全问题研究

周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中农业较为发达,为多个王朝建都之地。京师之地的粮食问题十分重要,汉代以后屡屡出现粮食紧张局面,其原因除移民、战乱等因素外,自然灾害的影响不容忽视。研究发现,周、秦、汉、唐时期,关中的粮食在秦以前基本自给,两汉、魏晋以后依赖关东趋于明显,隋唐时期关中粮食所需则自产自给和漕运并重。这一演变过程,与关中自然灾害的发生状况有着紧密联系。随着西汉以后生态环境的破坏和人类垦殖活动的日益加剧,关中地区水旱灾害发生频繁,对粮食安全产生了严重影响。期间的中央政府不断采取扩大农业垦殖、提高农业生产技术和漕运等手段,以解决京师用粮。     

Rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment

This paper reviews and synthesizes findings from scholarly work on linkages among rural household demographics, livelihoods and the environment. Using the livelihood approach as an organizing framework, we examine evidence on the multiple pathways linking environmental variables and the following demographic variables: fertility, migration, morbidity and mortality, and lifecycles. Although the review draws on studies from the entire developing world, we find the majority of microlevel studies have been conducted in either marginal (mountainous or arid) or frontier environments, especially Amazonia. Though the linkages are mediated by many complex and often context-specific factors, there is strong evidence that dependence on natural resources intensifies when households lose human and social capital through adult morbidity and mortality, and qualified evidence for the influence of environmental factors on household decision-making regarding fertility and migration. Two decades of research on lifecycles and land cover change at the farm level have yielded a number of insights about how households make use of different land-use and natural resource management strategies at different stages. A thread running throughout the review is the importance of managing risk through livelihood diversification, ensuring future income security, and culture-specific norms regarding appropriate and desirable activities and demographic responses. Recommendations for future research are provided.     

Gamma Emitters on Micro-Becquerel Activity Level in Air at Kraków (Poland)

The Petryanov air filters combined into half-year sets were analyzed for the presence of ⁴⁰K, ¹³⁷Cs and ²²Na by means of low-background gamma rays spectrometry. Each sample contains aerosols from more than 1 Mm³ of air. Samples were collected in ground level air at Kraków (Southern Poland) from 1996 to 2002. Activity concentrations of ⁴⁰K are almost constant with the mean of 14.7± 4.5 Bq m^–3. Activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, which are on the level of single Bq m^{– 3} show exponential decrease with effective half-life time of 7.07± 0.77 years. The cosmogenic ²²Na shows a strong seasonal variation with significant different mean values activity concentration between 0.333± 0.095 Bq m^–3 and 0.137± 0.045 Bq m^–3, for summer and winter, respectively. Moreover, the activity ratio for two cosmogenic radionuclides: ²²Na and measured previously ⁷Be show also changes with statistically significant seasonal differences. The lower values were found during winters. The mechanisms which might govern this ratio are discussed. The conclusion is that transport of ²²Na during summer seems to be so much effective, that results in kind of relative depletion of stratosphere of this nuclide.     

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.     

The role of social norms in climate adaptation: Mediating risk perception and flood insurance purchase

Flood insurance plays an important role in climate adaptation by recovering insured losses in the event of catastrophic flooding. Voluntary adoption of flood insurance has been seen as a function of risk perception that is shaped by social norms. This paper attempts to clarify the relationship between these factors. It is based on a household survey conducted in the eastern cities of Australia and involving a total of 501 randomly selected residents. Results of a path analysis show that the likelihood of having flood insurance cover was associated with perceived social norms, but not perceived flood risk. In addition, perceived norms and risk were statistically related to each other. It is concluded that social norms played a mediating role between insuring decision and risk perception. Risk perception might influence the insuring decision indirectly through shaping perception of social norms. This implies that adaptive behaviour is not necessarily a function of risk perception, but an outcome of its impacts upon the ways in which the individuals situate themselves in their social circles or the society. There is a feedback process in which individual perceptions of risk manifest as both a cause and effect, shaping and being shaped by the socio-cultural context.     

Revised runoff curve number for runoff prediction in the Loess Plateau of China

The soil conservation service (now Natural Resources Conservation Service) Curve Number (SCS-CN), one of the most commonly used methods for surface runoff prediction. The runoff calculated by this method was very sensitive to CN values. In this study, CN values were calculated by both arithmetic mean (CN_C) and least square fit method (CN_F) using observed rainfall-runoff data from 43 sites in the Loess Plateau region, which are considerably different from the CN₂ values obtained from the USDA-SCS handbook table (CN_T). The results showed that using CN_C instead of CN_T for each watershed produce little improvement, while replacing CN_T with CN_F improves the performance of the original SCS-CN method, but still performs poorly in most study sites. This is mainly due to the SCS-CN method using a constant CN value and discounting of the temporal variation in rainfall-runoff process. Therefore, three factors—soil moisture, rainfall depth and intensity—affecting the surface runoff variability are considered to reflect the variation of CN in each watershed, and a new CN value was developed. The reliability of the proposed method was tested with data from 38 watersheds, and then applied to the remaining five typical watersheds using the optimized parameters. The results indicated that the proposed method, which boosted the model efficiencies to 81.83% and 74.23% during calibration and validation cases, respectively, performed better than the original SCS-CN and the Shi and Wang (2020b) method, a modified SCS-CN method based on tabulated CN value. Thus, the proposed method incorporating the influence of the temporal variability of soil moisture, rainfall depth, and intensity factors suggests an accurate runoff prediction for general applications under different hydrological and climatic conditions on the Loess Plateau region.     

Thermal surface characteristics of coal fires 1 results of in-situ measurements

Natural underground coal fires are fires in coal seams occurring subsurface. The fires are ignited through a process named spontaneous combustion, which occurs based on a natural reaction but is usually triggered through human interaction. Coal mining activities expose coal to the air. This leads to the exothermal oxidation of the carbon in the coal with the air's oxygen to CO₂ and – under certain circumstances – to spontaneous combustion. Coal fires occur in many countries world wide – however, currently the Chinese coal mining industry faces the biggest problems with coal fires. Coal fires destroy the valuable resource coal and furthermore lead to many environmental degradation phenomena such as the deterioration of surrounding vegetation, land subsidence and the emission of toxic gasses (CO, N₂O). They additionally contribute to the emission of green house relevant gasses such as CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere.In this paper we present thermal characteristics of coal fires as measured in-situ during a field campaign to the Wuda coal fire area in south-central Inner Mongolia, China. Thermal characteristics include temperature anomaly measurements at the surface, spatial surface temperature profiles of fire areas and unaffected background areas, diurnal temperature profiles, and temperature measurements inside of coal fire induced cracks in the overlying bedrock. For all the measurements the effects of uneven solar heating through influences of slope and aspect are considered.Our findings show that coal fires result in strong or subtle thermal surface anomalies. Especially the latter can easily be influenced by heating of the surrounding background material through solar influences. Temperature variation of background rocks with different albedo, slope, aspect or vegetation cover can substantially influence the detectability of thermal anomalies. In the worst case coal fire related thermal anomalies can be completely masked by solar patterns during the daytime. Thus, night-time analysis is the most suitable for thermal anomaly mapping of underground coal fires, although this is not always feasible. The heat of underground coal fires only progresses very slowly through conduction in the rock material. Anomalies of coal fires completely covered by solid unfractured bedrock are very weak and were only measured during the night. The thermal pattern of underground coal fires manifested on the surface during the daytime is thus the pattern of cracks and vents, which occur due to the volume loss underground and which support radiation and convective energy transport of hot gasses. Inside coal fire temperatures can hardly be measured and can only be recorded if the glowing coal is exposed through a wider crack in the overlaying bedrock. Direct coal fire temperatures measured ranged between 233 °C and 854 °C. The results presented can substantially support the planning of thermal mapping campaigns, analyses of coal fire thermal anomalies in remotely sensed data, and can provide initial and boundary conditions for coal fire related numerical modeling.In a second paper named “Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: results of measurements on simulated coal fires” [Zhang J., Kuenzer C., Tetzlaff A., Oettl D., Zhukov B., Wagner W., 2007. Thermal Characteristics of Coal Fires 2: Result of measurements on simulated coal fires. Accepted for publication at Journal of Applied Geophysics. doi:10.1016/j.jappgeo.2007.08.003] we report about thermal characteristics of simulated coal fires simulated under simplified conditions. The simulated set up allowed us to measure even more parameters under undisturbed conditions — especially inside fire temperatures. Furthermore we could demonstrate the differences between open surface coal fires and covered underground coal fires. Thermal signals of coal fires in near range thermal remotely sensed imagery from an observing tower and from an airplane are presented and discussed.     

Microbial Degradation of Tar Oil Compounds under Different Redox Conditions

The microbial transformation of typical tar oil compounds such as acridine, benzo(b)thiophene, dibenzofuran, indane, and indene under different redox conditions was investigated in microcosm studies. Under aerobic conditions the inherent contamination in polluted soil as well as the added N‐, S‐, O‐ heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds were transformed predominantly apart from thiophene. 1‐Indanone was detected by RP‐HPLC‐DAD and GC‐MS as an intermediate metabolite from indane and indene. Under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions indane, benzo(b)thiophene, and dibenzofuran were transformed in assays with the polluted soil samples from well B 65 and B 66 within 426 days, whereas they were persistent in assays with the highly polluted soil B 67. All heterocyclic and homocyclic compounds added to the non‐contaminated soil from well B 85 were not degraded under nitrate and sulfate reducing conditions, too. The results indicate that for the decision, wether natural attenuation can be implemented in the remediation of contaminated site, in addition to BTEX and PAHs especially the fate of further tar oil compounds in anoxic aquifers has to be considered.     

论与核电厂址安全有关的自然灾害调查——以福建长乐漳港仙岐显应宫遗址埋没原因调查为例

本文以福建长乐显应宫遗址埋没原因调查为例,论述了对于可能影响核电站厂址安全的自然灾害,开展调查评价的技术思路和内容。希望对类似灾害的调查评价有所帮助。