试论全球化背景下的非传统安全

非传统安全是近几年频频出现的热点问题。它是在全球化背景下显现的,尤以2001年的“9·11”事件和2003年的非典型肺炎(SARS)为其典型代表。非传统安全越来越受到各国政府和学者们的重视,但它却系不同于过去我们所认识的传统安全,在形成机理、内涵、特点及与其他安全观之间的关系至今还没有得到共识,处于理论的不成熟阶段。因此,文章就以上几点进行了初步的论述。     

Study of statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasting regional air quality

Based on analysis of the air pollution observational data at 8 observation sites in Beijing including outer suburbs during the period from September 2004 to March 2005, this paper reveals synchronal and in-phase characteristics in the spatial and temporal variation of air pollutants on a city-proper scale at deferent sites; describes seasonal differences of the pollutant emission influence between the heating and non-heating periods, also significantly local differences of the pollutant emission influence between the urban district and outer suburbs, i.e. the spatial and temporal distribution of air pollutant is closely related with that of the pollutant emission intensity. This study shows that due to complexity of the spatial and temporal distribution of pollution emission sources, the new generation Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model developed by the EPA of USA produced forecasts, as other models did, with a systematic error of significantly lower than observations, albeit the model has better capability than previous models had in predicting the spatial distribution and variation tendency of multi-sort pollutants. The reason might be that the CMAQ adopts average amount of pollutant emission inventory, so that the model is difficult to objectively and finely describe the distribution and variation of pollution emission sources intensity on different spatial and temporal scales in the areas, in which the pollution is to be forecast. In order to correct the systematic prediction error resulting from the average pollutant emission inventory in CMAQ, this study proposes a new way of combining dynamics and statistics and establishes a statistically correcting model CMAQ-MOS for forecasts of regional air quality by utilizing the relationship of CMAQ outputs with corresponding observations, and tests the forecast capability. The investigation of experiments presents that CMAQ-MOS reduces the systematic errors of CMAQ because of the uncertainty of pollution emission inventory and improves the forecast level of air quality. Also this work employed a way of combining point and area forecasting, i.e. taking the products of CMAQ for a center site to forecast air pollution for other sites in vicinity with the scheme of model products "reanalysis" and average over the "area".     

Comparison of runoff characteristics of two adjacent basins in a tropical rainforest using a modified hydrologic cycle model with outflow

We propose a new runoff model including an outflow process that was applied to two adjacent basins (CL, TL) located in Lambir Hills National Park in north‐central Sarawak, Malaysia. Rainfall, runoff, topography, and soil layer thickness were observed. About 19% of annual runoff was observed in the CL basin (21.97 ha), whereas about 46% was observed in the TL basin (23.25 ha). It was inferred that the CL basin has an outflow because of low base flow, small runoff peak, and excessive water loss. By incorporating the outflow process into the HYdrological CYcle MODEL, good agreement between the data generated by the model and that observed was shown, with the exception of the data from the rainless period. Then, the fitting parameters for each basin were exchanged, except for the outflow parameter, and the characteristics of each basin were compared by calculating virtual runoff. As a result, the low base flow of the CL basin was estimated by the movement of the rainwater that escaped from the basin as deep percolation or lateral flow (11% of rainfall). The potential of the CL basin for mitigating flood and drought appeared to be higher than that of the TL basin. This is consistent with the topographic characteristics of the CL basin, which has a gentler slope than the TL basin. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

Temporal replication of the national land cover database using active machine learning

Regional and national level land cover datasets, such as the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) in the United States, have become an important resource in physical and social science research. Updates to the NLCD have been conducted every 5 years since 2001; however, the procedure for producing a new release is labor-intensive and time-consuming, taking 3 or 4 years to complete. Furthermore, in most countries very few, if any, such releases exist, and thus there is high demand for efficient production of land cover data at different points in time. In this paper, an active machine learning framework for temporal updating (or backcasting) of land cover data is proposed and tested for three study sites covered by the NLCD. The approach employs a maximum entropy classifier to extract information from one Landsat image using the NLCD, and then replicate the classification on a Landsat image for the same geographic extent from a different point in time to create land cover data of similar quality. Results show that this framework can effectively replicate the land cover database in the temporal domain with similar levels of overall and within class agreement when compared against high resolution reference land cover datasets. These results demonstrate that the land cover information encapsulated in the NLCD can effectively be extracted using solely Landsat imagery for replication purposes. The algorithm is fully automated and scalable for applications at landscape and regional scales for multiple points in time.     

昭通示范区黄金坝气田五峰—龙马溪组页岩气储层地质特征

昭通国家级页岩气示范区黄金坝气田是继礁石坝和长宁—威远之后中国又一个在页岩气勘探、开发领域实现重大突破的地区,为了系统地展示黄金坝气田页岩气资源富集的储层条件,为未来的勘探工作提供参考,以五峰—龙马溪组页岩气储层为研究对象,从区域地质条件、储层岩石学、物性和地球化学4个方面对该页岩气储层进行了综合研究。结果表明稳定的区域构造和良好的顶底板条件是黄金坝地区页岩气资源富集的关键,良好的保存条件使储层维持了较高的压力(压力系数1);较高的孔隙度(平均4%)和TOC含量(目的层2%)提供了良好的储集空间,使储层具有较高的含气量(1.35~3.48 cm3/g,平均2.50 cm3/g);天然气地球化学数据表明,区内天然气主要成分为CH4(97%),其次还含有少量的C2H6、C3H8和CO2;天然气同位素数据表明烃类C同位素组成发生了倒转,表明储层具有良好的封闭性。但储层孔隙系统较为复杂,且非均质性极强,从而导致渗透率较低,在储层改造施工过程中应予以充分考虑。总体上,黄金坝气田具有较好的开发前景,生产测试表明,区内直井压裂产量为0.5×104~3.5×104m3/d/井,水平井压裂产量可达12×104~40×104m3/d/井。     

基于GF 1光谱数据的青藏地区冰川资源现状遥感调查

以2014—2015年的GF 1为主、少量OLI影像为基础,参考第二次中国冰川目录等文献资料,修编完成青海省和西藏自治区两省区的现代冰川编目,查明青藏两省区目前共有冰川24 796条,总面积约2624×104 km2,约占青藏两省区区域面积的137%,冰川储量为2027×103~2121×103 km3。调查区冰川数量以面积<10 km2、冰川面积介于10~100 km2之间的冰川为主,其中面积<10 km2的冰川有19 983条,占总数量的8059%,面积介于10~100 km2之间的冰川面积为11 96240 km2,占总面积的4559%;面积最大的中锋冰川的面积达23737 km2。调查区内的山系(高原)均有冰川分布,念青唐古拉山冰川数量最多,其次是喜马拉雅山和冈底斯山,这3座山系冰川数量占调查区内冰川总数量的6333%;念青唐古拉山、喜马拉雅山和昆仑山的冰川面积和冰储量位列前3位,其冰川面积和冰储量分别占总数的6809%和7344%;然而昆仑山和羌塘高原的单条冰川的平均面积大于念青唐古拉山和喜马拉雅山的平均面积。从冰川海拔分布来看,海拔5 000~6 500 m之间是冰川集中发育区域,约占调查区冰川数量和冰川总面积的85%以上。调查区的冰川在各流域的分布差异显著,恒河流域是冰川分布数量最多、面积最大的一级外流区,其数量占冰川总量的47%以上,面积占总面积的52%以上;青藏高原内陆流域的冰川数量、面积次之,其冰川数量占总数量的21%,面积占总面积的24%以上,并且内流区单条冰川的平均面积略大于外流区的平均面积。总体上,西藏的冰川数量、面积和冰储量分别占西藏和青海两省区的8492%、8492%、8668%,单条冰川的平均面积两省区相近。     

论中国国家公园地质考察与评价——以浙江丽水百山祖国家公园为例

鉴于保护地调查评价历史与目标,国家公园地质考察评价基准是地质学关于地球的“时间、空间、演化”知识的发现路径,既识别国家公园候选地的国家符合性地质事件,又识别国家公园自然性、独特性、优美性、多样性、整体性的地质机制,提供国家公园最重要的自然生态系统与自然景观保育管理的地质学支撑。浙江丽水百山祖国家公园符合性的地质事件是公园发现的4.0~4.2 Ga冥古宙陆核物质的锆石晶体、中生代岛弧陆盆火山酸性火山岩系列和从流纹岩山岭到花岗岩—变质岩谷底的“峰—岭—丘—谷（盆）”的亚热带滨海山地地貌结构,地貌结构发育演化是百山祖公园最重要的自然生态系统、区域性流域水源地、独特山水景观的形成基础。保护百祖山公园地貌结构和过程的完整性与真实性是确保其重要自然生态系统自然演化和生态服务产品持续供给的基础。     

Policy options to streamline the carbon market for agricultural nitrous oxide emissions

The majority of emissions of nitrous oxide – a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) – are from agricultural sources, particularly nitrogen fertilizer applications. A growing focus on these emission sources has led to the development in the United States of GHG offset protocols that could enable payment to farmers for reducing fertilizer use or implementing other nitrogen management strategies. Despite the development of several protocols, the current regional scope is narrow, adoption by farmers is low, and policy implementation of protocols has a significant time lag. Here we utilize existing research and policy structures to propose an ‘umbrella’ approach for nitrogen management GHG emissions protocols that has the potential to streamline the policy implementation and acceptance of such protocols. We suggest that the umbrella protocol could set forth standard definitions common across multiple protocol options, and then modules could be further developed as scientific evidence advances. Modules could be developed for specific crops, regions, and practices. We identify a policy process that could facilitate this development in concert with emerging scientific research and conclude by acknowledging potential benefits and limitations of the approach.

Key policy insights

• Agricultural greenhouse gas market options are growing, but are still underutilized

• Streamlining protocol development through an umbrella process could enable quicker development of protocols across new crops, regions, and practices

• Effective protocol development must not compromise best available science and should follow a rigorous pathway to ensure appropriate implementation